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0.5
|
u2e0f5luh9
|
{"NO": 54.64753425371483, "YES": 182.99087299296065}
|
0.22996086738196794
|
will-massachusetts-legalize-at-leas
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85
|
Will Massachusetts legalize at least some types of fireworks by the end of 2025?
|
1767243540000
|
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
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cpmm-1
|
0
|
10.586609649448985
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False
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play
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public
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1720156828879
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chris (strutheo)
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Massachusetts is the only state in the U.S. where it is illegal to sell, use or otherwise possess fireworks of any kind as a private citizen. Many communities across the state ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "host public fireworks displays", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/fireworks-july-4-massachusetts-2024/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at their ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "July Fourth celebrations", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/fireworks-boston-2024-july-4th/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". But without a license and permit, the statewide law prohibits fireworks of all kinds, including sparklers, firecrackers and any other comparable device that's been designed to produce \"a visible or audible effect,\" according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the state government", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.mass.gov/info-details/leave-fireworks-to-the-professionals", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/map-states-where-fireworks-legal/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/map-states-where-fireworks-legal/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FyWeaDAWJ6H.jpg?alt=media&token=939a8d94-a26a-4e80-adc7-b680f20cbcf3", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}
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will-massachusetts-legalize-at-leas-lex8d7wpr2
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15
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Will Massachusetts legalize at least some types of fireworks by the end of 2026?
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1798779540000
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hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
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cpmm-1
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0
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10.586609649448985
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False
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play
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public
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1720156860512
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chris (strutheo)
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Massachusetts is the only state in the U.S. where it is illegal to sell, use or otherwise possess fireworks of any kind as a private citizen. Many communities across the state ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "host public fireworks displays", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/fireworks-july-4-massachusetts-2024/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at their ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "July Fourth celebrations", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/fireworks-boston-2024-july-4th/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". But without a license and permit, the statewide law prohibits fireworks of all kinds, including sparklers, firecrackers and any other comparable device that's been designed to produce \"a visible or audible effect,\" according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the state government", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.mass.gov/info-details/leave-fireworks-to-the-professionals", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/map-states-where-fireworks-legal/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/map-states-where-fireworks-legal/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FyWeaDAWJ6H.jpg?alt=media&token=939a8d94-a26a-4e80-adc7-b680f20cbcf3", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}
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will-my-startup-spike-intelligence
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4273.093732527856
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Will my startup Spike Intelligence become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?
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1767254340000
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hVqXunBbDHYIZmtJnUcvMUEG3dx1
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cpmm-1
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0
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False
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basic
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public
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1720160391454
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Jason Lu
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the Delaware C Corp RESMPDEV Incorporated DBA as Spike Intelligence hit a valuation of 1 billion USD of end of 2026 USD by the end of 2026? The judgment will be ruled if the corporation goes public or can be deduced from raised money, but will fail if raised money is not public.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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BINARY
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3948.0937325278564
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1000
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JasonLu
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1720230941247
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0
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ALV-UjXGAIGA5Z8Lf71tRZDkFgkkmuEg7OQ9pNqvx6hB2lrUcfQD1huacPpYI8bxyXP30e6RpXtCYMwyP3LdlXKrk_MMyFq0TM_AbqwcP1bfaoxucHwNUtp8R-ncnyr1OQbwgfOgqi8yVoMbjdFanKisns-nl_4OoamFF10JUb_XVFG96ux0I9p1b4kxspjpiZdBOsU5Ifu-Qx7aeMGd5azhT9RX_tWvSY1-tkKk4-89F_IKC-3NzL0k7mfpTfkGSXyxHrvS6mK8HdnYiZ2w4n9F6Vzq9NsyBxROW98_kmKhAcB1SPoKFZyFVq8dkq7HFS5aKJBU5D6CUR89abjqtyrYKRV9Gm_qpe8xYlyQyA3uqx4dwn6QkfRCwukCDVb2JAxgo_pISG8qXTni4N3T4fqsstpMuAhgtbyTQK9AjbpZSFyTe_8TZl0uCrq54cfc51B7St8tYq5nqhuIDymz1j_7bL39YAxHaI4W16-c_9xSFYoBfPG1QaabBWPANBDwLvZFt9WXhoosRnep9E9WHQaW8LvOclfPhwHnl_GcaoH3VbnsqBHiJiVNXIprLCbAzqfQqNPKaMd7VnAMTVSUP8qorYWkQWJj4AR_gpzVlQNsSH2g-H5RMLWUDaXQSpIo3vte5BqWCNuGXoALph_VZWPCIrkDeZ2jaL-Bmk2s_SFLPsS1oUpCSwN0Es0s5FwwTNmzmqsWhrK0wnBgq2nQXjwVRF2KxSnOB4hXlcLVFTHdKsxDCIMV7HFL6bMq31DWSYduS7S_pm2rmbT7R340R-VJ9F_oiL-0gfad-Z7AI3pQo74XtRYIdSX4NcuPzLl-lM-VIgLNkj3buWVKKlv--nQqOuDG_2NaNeiVkEDbExZufP68kxKLt9QFPqQMcdwaxzkEGpuXUZWu9zSy_-oq7jIOJ-1ZpBMU--R6f05BLxWSY0F7a36JNriUBzSOPnCb2lPbNKuD6l_IRGPL8AQmCan6LpN1=s96-c
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0.37328525722971356
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will-kamala-harris-be-formally-impl
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810
|
Will Kamala Harris be implicated in the coverup, misleading ppl about biden's mental decline in 2024?
|
1735707540000
|
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
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cpmm-1
|
0
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9.5807842675579
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False
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basic
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public
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1720162547956
|
Stochastic Cockatoo
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See Nate silver tweet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1809076210091098319", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}
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StochasticParrot
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0
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by-when-will-biden-no-longer-be-pre
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3659.828815838288
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By when will Biden no longer be President
|
1862002740000
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cpmm-multi-1
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0
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8.044840137766439
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False
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basic
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public
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1720165142346
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KitFR
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What is the earliest date, among the given choices, at which Biden will no longer be officially President?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last choice can be taken to mean that he finishes out his second term, or, however unlikely, starts his second term. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anyone stepping in as active president will not count as triggering a resolution, as Biden must officially no longer be President. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the event that any doubt hangs over this issue, I’ll close the question at my own discretion. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
|
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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0
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1000
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1720244836546
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0
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30
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30
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DISABLED
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42tjls3r8h
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0.1951555103675865
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will-biden-drop-out-before-trump-re
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5686.978426416225
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Will Biden drop out before Trump reveals his VP?
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1723118340000
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OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
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cpmm-1
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0
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9.649961611758805
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False
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basic
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public
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1720165736977
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jim
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Biden drops out of the 2024 presidential race before Trump reveals his VP pick. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
|
BINARY
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0.5000000000000006
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29dckmmj2x
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{"NO": 368.6038914084794, "YES": 2712.9393457537294}
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0.11961665407230414
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will-bitcoin-mining-be-carbonneutra
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2775
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Will Bitcoin be carbon-neutral by 2030?
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1893542340000
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DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2
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cpmm-1
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0
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9.731599435325032
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basic
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public
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1720166204326
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Antoine Dusséaux
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As renewable energy becomes cheaper, more and more Bitcoin miners use it. As of 2023, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "about half of the electricity used for Bitcoin mining was generated through renewables and nuclear energy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_effects_of_bitcoin", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Should Bitcoin switch entirely to non-fossil energy, it could become ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "carbon neutral", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_zero_emissions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Moreover, as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "highlighted by the World Economic Forum", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.weforum.org/videos/this-start-up-catches-waste-methane-to-power-data-centres/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", some miners mitigate methane emissions in oil fields and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "some pilot projects aim to do the same in landfills", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/marathon-digital-holdings-launches-pilot-landfill-methane-powered-bitcoin-mining-project", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". As methane has a greater ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "global warming potential", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " than CO2, combusting methane that would have otherwise been released into the atmosphere is an effective path to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "offset remaining greenhouse gas emissions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_offsets_and_credits#Methane_collection_and_combustion", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "These trends led bitcoiner and environmentalist ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Daniel Batten to predict that Bitcoin will be carbon-negative by 2028", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr-RGdbyRDQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On January 1st, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2030", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", will Bitcoin mining be carbon-neutral? (Please note that this question uses 2030, and not 2028 like the above forecast by Daniel Batten.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will be resolved using the Wikipedia page \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Environmental effects of bitcoin", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_effects_of_bitcoin", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "\" on January 1st, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2030", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". In case of an ongoing edit war, I'll wait for the page to \"stabilize\". If high-quality reliable sources disagree, I'll resolve the question as N/A. However, if high-quality reliable sources (e.g., peer-reviewed research published in a good academic journal) claim something while lower-quality sources (e.g., mainstream media such as the NYT or WSJ) claim the opposite, I'll resolve following the high-quality reliable sources.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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which-dutch-cabinet-ministers-of-ca
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Which Dutch cabinet ministers (of cabinet Schoof I) will resign before the cabinet falls? [Add answers]
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108tp4wNYKfBeVJ62CvCpwu27oC3
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cpmm-multi-1
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basic
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Marnix Vreugdenhil
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES for any minister who resigns BEFORE the cabinet falls in its entirety or BEFORE the cabinet is at the end of its 4-year term. Resignations in a demissionary state do not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: a resignation by Schoof which lets the entire cabinet fall on the same day, will resolve as NO for him", "type": "text"}]}]}
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8540eochhp
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reform-uk-won-four-seats-in-the-202-z7il8hkpkn
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1185
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Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be held in one of those seats?
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1877983140000
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G3LhSYHrymapMN91FqCFhteTKqQ2
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cpmm-multi-1
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0
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1720167703383
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GM
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves when either of these is true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A by-election is called in Clacton-on-Sea, Boston and Skegness, South Basildon and East Thurrock, Great Yarmouth, or Ashfield, for whatever reason.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A UK General Election is called.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}
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Will "Carl Sagan, nuking the moon, and not nuking t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of LessWrong's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Annual Review", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/lesswrong-review", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to 100% if the post ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Carl Sagan, nuking the moon, and not nuking the moon", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hwtt9zM3MxoKnwgbd/carl-sagan-nuking-the-moon-and-not-nuking-the-moon", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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cpmm-multi-1
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rypyhi2qyb
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1720188533045
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zjr9WqBJXCVlBtMlT7Sqr5l3lZH2
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cpmm-1
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0
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9.668990975005899
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brian wang
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "End of month California time ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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BINARY
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If the US election were between only RFK Jr. and Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
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1720853940000
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POLL
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Will I go to New York tonight?
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zfF5BimgexZ5z6shuMV7e6nWE2K3
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cpmm-1
|
0
|
9.57034706147558
|
False
|
basic
|
public
|
1720191491422
|
Qasim
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
|
BINARY
|
{"day": -0.004700653554810086, "week": -0.004700653554810086, "month": -0.004700653554810086}
|
0
|
{"creatorFee": 3.7841993936286324, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
112
|
1000
|
qaslay
|
1720235436823
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
0.13333333333333333
|
1711521881659
|
0
|
0.25
|
0.5
|
1720235433687
|
1720231123340
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
earrnncvat
|
if-biden-drops-out-what-would-happe
|
1201.8520470391024
|
If Biden drops out, what would happen to his donations?
|
1735711140000
|
Y2b1TJ7nvAR0MqiQ2lLKllwVBXd2
|
cpmm-multi-1
|
0
|
6.4751031558700465
|
False
|
plus
|
public
|
1720191980042
|
Quillist
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may add additional conditions as different options become apparent", "type": "text"}]}]}
|
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
|
0
|
{"creatorFee": 27.315362188963977, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
1201.8520470391024
|
10000
|
Quillist
|
1720239913114
|
0
|
10
|
10
|
ONLY_CREATOR
|
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|
0.13333333333333333
|
1702722697077
|
0
|
0.25
|
1720239909986
|
1720198736821
|
True
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ijcx42d5fg
|
which-of-these-3-outcomes-will-o-ch
|
37.59116165643424
|
which of these 3 outcomes will o choose???
|
1720839540000
|
WkvtwvOlw3gTeiseJfW2EMJgcE32
|
cpmm-multi-1
|
0
|
10.586609649448985
|
False
|
play
|
public
|
1720192400834
|
Tom Bennett
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
|
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
|
0
|
{"creatorFee": 0.5431358457370837, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
37.59116165643424
|
100
|
TomBennett
|
1720192932892
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJynP_dsiq0Qpo5nF7OZwpIoX5fZoF8tFAG1ST9k=s96-c
|
1
|
1
|
DISABLED
|
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|
0.13333333333333333
|
1640717763898
|
0
|
0.25
|
1720192929760
|
True
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sp38okpdic
|
will-a-us-president-order-the-assas
|
7072
|
Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?
|
1861937940000
|
FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1
|
cpmm-multi-1
|
0
|
9.588436274164536
|
False
|
plus
|
public
|
1720193215482
|
inaimathi
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The recent Supreme Court ruling (Trump v United States - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "wiki", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_v._United_States_(2024)", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "pdf", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") is being criticized for allowing absolute and presumptive immunity for various acts involving core powers. One of the recurring hypotheticals is (paraphrased) \"ordering Seal Team Six to assassinate a political rival\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will a US president order the assassination of any of the above people by 2029?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES to any assassinations that have been ordered by the president by the end of 2028 as they are ordered (assassinations that are publicly ordered but not carried out prior to 2028 still count). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO to any assassinations that happen, but are not claimed responsibility by the president and are attributed to independent, presidentially-unrelated assassins prior to the end of 2028.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO on December 31st of 2028 for any assassinations that have not yet been ordered.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Motivation doesn't matter, but it has to be a deliberate, targeted killing (for instance if something like ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anwar_al-Awlaki", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " happened again, it would resolve \"Other US citizen\" to \"YES\"). Accidental or incidental killings don't count here, but explicit assassination orders, whether they're justified as lawful or not, do.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Impeachment in the house or senate, and subsequent removal from office alone does not count as \"criminal charges\" here. The president has to avoid being criminally charged for the act, whether or not he stays in office.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}
|
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
|
0
|
{"creatorFee": 151.9962771563081, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
7072
|
10000
|
inaimathi
|
1720246433548
|
0
|
25
|
25
|
ONLY_CREATOR
|
[{"id": "sae5qdwq38", "prob": 0.24088928141876656, "text": "Political rival", "index": 0, "poolNo": 487.92661774508457, "userId": "FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1537.595708824787, "textFts": "'polit':1 'rival':2", "contractId": "sp38okpdic", "createdTime": 1720193215482, "probChanges": {"day": -0.25911071858123347, "week": -0.25911071858123347, "month": -0.25911071858123347}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.25911071858123347, "probChangeWeek": -0.25911071858123347, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.25911071858123347}, {"id": "stm8o8ag42", "prob": 0.29600646251204804, "text": "Political underling", "index": 1, "poolNo": 625.2063415420043, "userId": "FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 1486.931130850367, "textFts": "'polit':1 'underl':2", "contractId": "sp38okpdic", "createdTime": 1720193215482, "probChanges": {"day": -0.20399353748795196, "week": -0.20399353748795196, "month": 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"isOther": false, "poolYes": 1486.9531703804944, "textFts": "'comment':2 'polit':1", "contractId": "sp38okpdic", "createdTime": 1720193215482, "probChanges": {"day": -0.2054089838311114, "week": -0.2054089838311114, "month": -0.2054089838311114}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.2054089838311114, "probChangeWeek": -0.2054089838311114, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.2054089838311114}, {"id": "6utipuy6hm", "prob": 0.5176954232890735, "text": "Other US citizen", "index": 9, "poolNo": 1030.9729575524063, "userId": "FgjVBV7DEYSxBap0JIwKEISAXDq1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 960.493281423259, "textFts": "'citizen':3 'us':2", "contractId": "sp38okpdic", "createdTime": 1720193215482, "probChanges": {"day": -0.006301943585348191, "week": -0.006301943585348191, "month": -0.006301943585348191}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.006301943585348191, "probChangeWeek": -0.006301943585348191, "totalLiquidity": 100, "probChangeMonth": -0.006301943585348191}]
|
0.13333333333333333
|
1694283259231
|
0
|
0.25
|
1720246430475
|
1720243128895
|
False
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9xiez4awr4
|
will-bitcoin-next-rise-above-65k-or
|
40
|
Will Bitcoin next rise above 65k or fall below 45k?
|
1767243540000
|
RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1
|
cpmm-multi-1
|
0
|
10.586609649448985
|
False
|
play
|
public
|
1720193702031
|
fish
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
|
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
|
0
|
{"creatorFee": 0.6237319932547993, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
40
|
100
|
kurt
|
1720194640351
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
DISABLED
|
[{"id": "3a5a04p5q1", "prob": 0.6240911560000015, "text": ">65k USD", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 64.42475070748702, "userId": "RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 38.804961952448274, "textFts": "'65k':1 'usd':2", "contractId": "9xiez4awr4", "createdTime": 1720193702031, "probChanges": {"day": 0.04677166011194678, "week": 0.04677166011194678, "month": 0.04677166011194678}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": 0.04677166011194678, "probChangeWeek": 0.04677166011194678, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": 0.04677166011194678}, {"id": "thnwif5jw6", "prob": 0.37590884399999847, "text": "<45k USD", "color": "#e9a23b", "index": 1, "poolNo": 38.80496195244829, "userId": "RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 64.42475070748702, "textFts": "'45k':1 'usd':2", "contractId": "9xiez4awr4", "createdTime": 1720193702031, "probChanges": {"day": -0.04677166011194672, "week": -0.04677166011194672, "month": -0.04677166011194672}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime": null, "probChangeDay": -0.04677166011194672, "probChangeWeek": -0.04677166011194672, "totalLiquidity": 50.00000000000001, "probChangeMonth": -0.04677166011194672}]
|
0.13333333333333333
|
1700606417730
|
0
|
0.25
|
1720194637086
|
True
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2leofcl48d
|
how-much-will-algorithmic-progress
|
225
|
How much will algorithmic progress in AI reduce cost for SotA SWE-agents by mid 2025?
|
1751428740000
|
5k45vTAvHBfcp0oh2brDuX01Y0g1
|
cpmm-multi-1
|
0
|
10.586609649448985
|
False
|
basic
|
public
|
1720195648620
|
Jacob Pfau
|
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Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2025?
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0
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{"creatorFee": 15.370066911415835, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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795.2573556626393
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100
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hannah
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1720232474948
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0
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1PLl0EoxFSsucTUFdSIyrIoYG3tDdrc82EZaJo0w=s96-c
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9
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9
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1720203508520
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0.5000000000000001
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ccily5p8ft
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{"NO": 61.16001592498299, "YES": 163.5055166150659}
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0.2722269643835136
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will-my-next-girlfriend-be-an-oly-q
|
714
|
Will my next girlfriend be an oly qualifier?
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1815461940000
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3v0nsTlPsch9KcGmyh9OHIgz64k1
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cpmm-1
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0
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10.586609649448985
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False
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play
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public
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1720202245686
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hi
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES iff my next girlfriend has qualified for USA(J)MO before we start dating.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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BINARY
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{"day": -0.22777303561648637, "week": -0.22777303561648637, "month": -0.22777303561648637}
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0
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{"creatorFee": 13.45901499892987, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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714
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100
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DeadRhino
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1720238290239
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0
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp767zoItPpimAhYYSJUCosd2tHZKAwnifXffrutAw=s96-c
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8
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8
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0.13333333333333333
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wylmmdwmkw
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{"NO": 23329.190765676743, "YES": 4787.287505963574}
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0.8520354870531829
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will-a-group-of-at-least-5-named-de
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26899.23657433096
|
Will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th?
|
1721458740000
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vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952
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cpmm-1
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0
|
3.0238335935298606
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False
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plus
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public
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1720205275810
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Manifold Politics
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Politico reports:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/03/house-democrats-biden-debate-00166533", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Two safe-seat members have already publicly urged Biden out. Two of the most endangered Democrats told local news outlets they’ve already written off Biden’s chances to win in November.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Behind the scenes, things are even more frenzied. There are multiple drafts of letters circulating among House Democrats and at least one would call on Biden to end his campaign, according to five people familiar with the efforts.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if a group of at least five named Democratic Party US House Members/US Senators work together to ask Joe Biden to consider ending his 2024 re-election campaign, or to urge him to do so, before Saturday July 20th (Pacific Time).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This could be by signing a letter like what is reported above, but it could also be in another form such as a group speaking with Biden in person and collectively asking him to drop out.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market requires that all five individuals be part of the same group message. Five people separately telling reporters they think Biden should drop out is not sufficient for a YES resolution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reports of any number of unnamed democrats writing to Biden and asking him to step aside will not satisfy this market's criteria unless at least 5 qualifying names are later made public before this market's end date. In any ambiguous cases where such names are reported but not confirmed beyond a reasonable doubt, this market will err towards resolving NO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If these criteria are not met before July 20th, this market resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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BINARY
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0
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26627.51201869338
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10000
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ManifoldPolitics
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1720247884237
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0.5000000000000016
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vhgyhbxhu4
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0.99
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will-france-beat-portugal-23b31e3cxu
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7587.356727251397
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Will France Beat Portugal
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1720241940000
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dHJuqFF5UZUCIGzKtJgEdA2EXTX2
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cpmm-1
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0
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10.586609649448985
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False
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play
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public
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1720205559408
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Darkmoon
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
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BINARY
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{"day": 0.49, "week": 0.49, "month": 0.49}
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0
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5897.01018367201
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100
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Darkmoonnjsf
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1720232915525
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0
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLtyK9JxFJhGfgkx9V1wCxt-dEYDCgRP-CdjvXTo5q5EuBC-w=s96-c
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10
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10
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aewwh215ls
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who-will-win-stage-8-at-the-2024-to
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358.89168544629854
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Who will win stage 8 at the 2024 Tour de France?
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1720324740000
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946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2
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cpmm-multi-1
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0
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10.586609649448985
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False
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play
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public
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1720205979035
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JAAM
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stage likely for the breakway", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fk5pbUCgsNO.png?alt=media&token=38929093-4b70-404e-850e-dd4f7755ae72", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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0
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egroj
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1720246587517
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0
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5
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5
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ANYONE
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|
0.13333333333333333
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1655411946178
|
0
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0.25
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1720246584402
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1720224124268
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True
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0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002
|
1pac9vvbv5
|
{"NO": 950.2125594971246, "YES": 1052.396108644601}
|
0.4744873896800081
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will-the-georgia-case-against-trump
|
230
|
Will the Georgia case against Trump be withdrawn or thrown out before the election in November?
|
1730869140000
|
m5K4FlZLo0aeDd5Z7W4xX3TAGHs1
|
cpmm-1
|
0
|
9.570738270892791
|
False
|
basic
|
public
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1720206131152
|
Jeff Berman
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
|
BINARY
|
{"day": -0.025512610319991913, "week": -0.025512610319991913, "month": -0.025512610319991913}
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0
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{"creatorFee": 7.682920363960659, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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230
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1000
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JeffBerman
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1720240339912
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0
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https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJs_c1tZ1T6PMCtwsXu9NiUuQCqnjN1hMqXJXkPgADYqnQ=s96-c
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3
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3
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0.13333333333333333
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1707850952840
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0.5
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1720240336816
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0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tk11glfkmd
|
how-do-you-expect-joe-biden-to-perf
|
0
|
How do you expect Joe Biden to perform in his ABC interview tonight, on a scale from 1 to 5?
|
1720224000000
|
vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952
|
none
|
0
|
1000000
|
True
|
public
|
1720206148407
|
Manifold Politics
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Joe Biden will give his", "type": "text"}, {"text": " first major interview", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/07/05/joe-biden-interview-abc-news-george-stephanopoulos/74290395007/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " since the debate to ABC tonight at 8 PM Eastern.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please respond to this poll with your expectations for Biden in this interview. A rating of 1/5 would be one of his most criticized recent performances (such as the debate) and a 5/5 would be among his most praised recent performances (like his best State of the Union speeches).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Another poll like this will be created after the interview, to see if Biden exceeded expectations:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/will-joe-biden-outperform-manifolds", "frameBorder": 0}}]}
|
POLL
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
0
|
1720224000218
|
ManifoldPolitics
|
1720207140008
|
0
|
38
|
0
|
0.13333333333333333
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1701801625125
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0
|
0.25
|
["j3igobbdsl"]
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999997
|
feheido61f
|
{"NO": 476.4920147428869, "YES": 2098.6710565120347}
|
0.18503372468396093
|
will-joe-biden-outperform-manifolds
|
2942.100529591109
|
Will Joe Biden exceed Manifold's expectations in his ABC interview tonight?
|
1720421940000
|
vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952
|
cpmm-1
|
0
|
9.65769906754512
|
False
|
basic
|
public
|
1720206669669
|
Manifold Politics
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be based on the results of this pre-interview poll and a post-interview poll I will create after the interview:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/how-do-you-expect-joe-biden-to-perf", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Post-Interview poll will run for 24 hours, and the average score will be compared to expected average score. If it is higher this market resolves YES, if it is lower this market resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If It seems there is a significant amount of dishonest voting for profit, I may adjust for that in the results or close this market for trading. Please answer honestly! ", "type": "text"}]}]}
|
BINARY
|
{"day": -0.31496627531603905, "week": -0.31496627531603905, "month": -0.31496627531603905}
|
0
|
{"creatorFee": 80.43190648260402, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
2732.2780461173415
|
1000
|
ManifoldPolitics
|
1720236698011
|
0
|
22
|
22
|
0.13333333333333333
|
1701801625125
|
0
|
0.25
|
0.5
|
1720236694933
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5
|
ni207sci8p
|
{"NO": 785.8008143594562, "YES": 1272.5871260583358}
|
0.38175544994689475
|
will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-mkvjqwlemf
|
440
|
Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 270 days of being attacked by them?
|
1731992340000
|
LuPTAI6V7CXuYdZfRlD8N4G7Qk72
|
cpmm-1
|
0
|
9.579377191876606
|
False
|
basic
|
public
|
1720207996026
|
Nick Allen
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
|
BINARY
|
{"day": -0.11824455005310525, "week": -0.11824455005310525, "month": -0.11824455005310525}
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0
|
{"creatorFee": 13.423310980979727, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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440
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1000
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NickAllenc961
|
1720242829117
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0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXRehhnCBU6ZDuSEv4pLGf0IAFcyQEOOk1kcBpXbkZ=s96-c
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5
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or other relevant body) invokes ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_4:_Declaration_by_vice_president_and_cabinet_members_of_president's_inability", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "formally declare that \"the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office\" and cause the Vice President to serve as Acting President, before August 2024 (Eastern time).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The duration of the incapacity does not matter for this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden exiting the office of the Presidency by death, resignation, etc does not count. Biden invoking section 3 of the 25th amendment does not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "GOP lawmaker asks Merrick Garland to invoke 25th Amendment to remove Biden from office", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/gop-lawmaker-asks-merrick-garland-invoke-25th-amendment-remove-biden-o-rcna138112", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}
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0.13333333333333333
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1700212225777
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0
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0.25
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| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
wauc7676ia
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who-will-earn-the-most-mana-at-poke-1ewgjb46fw
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268462.28989012935
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Who will earn the most mana at poker night?
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1720239400238
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tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
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cpmm-multi-1
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0
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7.756770091866145
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plus
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74vg2gffcz
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public
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1720211521612
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SG
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Poker night tonight at the Manifold office! https://partiful.com/e/3yf44viwBZd3zH4tDxID", "type": "text"}]}]}
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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0
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{"creatorFee": 1752.9621732006246, "platformFee": 624.7530777647376, "liquidityFee": 0}
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237591.21170647512
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1720239400238
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18000
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SG
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1720241270613
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0
|
18
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18
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ANYONE
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Two players are playing normal game of chess on this board. You cannot interfere/affect what they are doing. (Their names are not revealed, they are not Manifold users).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Setting:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You are caught in a middle of a war conflict. Neither side reports the true situation, mobile services are cut off, independent reporters cannot reach the location, you can only trust what you see.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You play as a Witness. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the start of the game you are on a random free square of the board. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can see your square and the 8 squares around it with pieces on them, but you never see the locations of kings (The military command keeps its location secret).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After each move (when both white and black moved) you see the situation and have an opportunity to move (king's move pattern) or to stay.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can move to an occupied square, but if the piece on your current square gets captured you become a civilian casualty, this market resolves to Death.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you survive up to the end of the match, the market resolves to the chess match result.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Witness's move is made through the most upvoted comment.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New gamestates are also communicated through the comment section.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've included some notable Labour figures, the leaders of the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK, plus two people who may be the next Conservative leader. Feel free to add more choices.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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io3yysrzfh
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how-many-goals-will-be-scored-in-sa
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2609.444423398483
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How many goals will be scored in Saturday’s Euros 2024 matches?
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1720825140000
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xvisOWzjFbhMhSDK9yw4oYkrd9p2
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cpmm-multi-1
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0
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10.586609649448985
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False
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basic
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public
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1720218643366
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Numnumduck
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Goals scored in normal time and extra time. Doesn’t include penalties scored in shootout. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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2589.444423398483
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1720248172077
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who-will-become-the-next-governor-o-pt9884a96x
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0
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Who will become the next governor of Texas after Greg Abbott?
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2541185940000
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iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2
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cpmm-multi-1
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0
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10.586609649448985
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False
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basic
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public
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1720218893916
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JuJumper
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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1000
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0.5623814967914673
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will-andrew-tate-aka-top-g-be-spott
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138
|
Will Andrew Tate aka Top G be spotted outside of the EU in 2024, after Romanian judge ruled he must stay within EU?
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1735707540000
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iXPkCXt5EQZ78Yqz03MqWsXpD122
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cpmm-1
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0
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9.572776886746826
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basic
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public
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1720219615591
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Niko
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Romanian judge ruled that Andrew Tate can leave Romania, but not travel outside the EU.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/europe/romanian-court-allows-andrew-tate-to-leave-romania-stay-eu-awaiting-trial-on", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/europe/romanian-court-allows-andrew-tate-to-leave-romania-stay-eu-awaiting-trial-on", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FKKtAWEtlds.png?alt=media&token=63d53f89-bea6-48cd-9870-6fc3ec1ede45", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In response, Andrew Tate declared he will go on tour promoting his $DADDY token.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/europe/andrew-tate-granted-european-travel-freedom-after-3-years-plans-daddy-coin-tour", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/europe/andrew-tate-granted-european-travel-freedom-after-3-years-plans-daddy-coin-tour", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F-FJ6mWlKfk.png?alt=media&token=8feafa08-befa-4659-bbe3-f107cc8016c2", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/Cobratate/status/1809208103121903796", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/Cobratate/status/1809208103121903796", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fy0NDbJ4nG4.png?alt=media&token=d155d90a-9a53-4c84-987a-db503898e6e9", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will there be confirmed reports of Tate stepping foot outside of the EU in 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "international waters do not count", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "however if he steps foot in USA, UK or any other non-EU country and is detained before entering -- that will count", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if he visits a non-Western country like Iraq or North Korea, that will also count", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if the judge permits him to travel beyond EU and he does... that also counts", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if he goes to UK to stand trial... that also counts", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market simply boils down to... will there be clear confirmation that Andrew Tate has physically left the EU sometime in 2024? Not counting international waters.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}]}
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BINARY
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70
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conditional-on-hurricane-beryl-maki
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1721451540000
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be resolved based on the findings of the National Hurricane Center", "type": "text"}]}]}
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Will Spain beat France? | Euro 2024
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cpmm-1
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0
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9.343154778671018
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basic
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public
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The Official
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).", "type": "text"}]}]}
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short-fuse-will-joe-biden-drop-out
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161.44311475834022
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Short Fuse - Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of day Friday, July 12, 2024?
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1720508340000
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WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2
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cpmm-1
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0
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10.586609649448985
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False
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play
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Bruno Clawfeld
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is an official announcement that Biden will not seek a second term by the end of the day on Friday, July 12, this market will resolve \"yes.\" ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I may occasionally take positions in this market where the odds favor the opposite resolution to add liquidity and interest, given that the resolution criteria are clear.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}}]}
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Will Biden do better on the ABC interview than the debate, according to LLM on the transcripts?
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Jack
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the interview airs, I will ask Claude which one Biden did better on based on the transcripts, using the prompt below. If that doesn't work (any refusal or no clear answer), I'll try other prompts and/or asking ChatGPT or Gemini. Resolves YES if it says Biden did better on the ABC interview, NO if it says Biden did better in the debate.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Claude prompt (Claude 3.5 Sonnet)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": null}, "content": [{"text": "In which of the two attached transcripts did Biden do better?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both transcripts will be added as attachments.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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Will this market get me a job in 2024?
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Ari Zerner
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Blatant incentive market, initialized at 10%. For this to resolve YES, I need to get a job in direct connection to this market; it is not sufficient for me to get a job by other means. Examples of this would be if I get a job based on discussion in the comments or if this market is explicitly mentioned by an employer. My resume is available at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://arizerner.com/resume/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arizerner.com/resume/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and I'm happy to answer questions in the comments. It's likely that any job I get based on this market will be a software engineer role, but not necessary for a YES resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at non-50% probabilities in the UI? (by July 2025)
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1751349540000
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Ari Zerner
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This capability already exists via the API (see ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/AriZerner/will-manifold-add-a-way-for-creator", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/AriZerner/will-manifold-add-a-way-for-creator", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "). Similarly resolves YES if someone points out that there's already a way to do the same thing in the UI.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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How do you rate Joe Biden's performance in the ABC interview, on a scale from 1 to 5?
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none
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Manifold Politics
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Joe Biden gave his", "type": "text"}, {"text": " first major interview", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/07/05/joe-biden-interview-abc-news-george-stephanopoulos/74290395007/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " since the debate to ABC tonight.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please respond to this poll with your rating of Biden in this interview. A rating of 1/5 would be one of his most criticized recent performances (such as the debate) and a 5/5 would be among his most praised recent performances (like his best State of the Union speeches).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This poll will help resolve this market:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/will-joe-biden-outperform-manifolds", "frameBorder": 0}}]}
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ManifoldPolitics
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how-many-nato-member-countries-will
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0
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How many NATO member countries will there be at the end of 2029?
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1893473940000
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hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
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cpmm-multi-1
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0
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play
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public
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1720227194592
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chris (strutheo)
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}
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70
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Will Brazil join NATO by the end of 2026?
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1798779540000
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hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
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cpmm-1
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0
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10.586609649448985
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play
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public
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1720227256591
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chris (strutheo)
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if their instrument of ascension is deposited by the end of the market", "type": "text"}]}]}
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Modular Helmets with Anti-Fog Visors for Safe and Clear Riding", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Modular helmets with anti fog visors", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " are popular with many riders because of their adaptability to the environment. When riding in the hot sun it's easy to transform it into an open face or three-quarter helmet and enjoy a cool breeze.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "During winter or you are following a trail full of hanging twigs, dirt, or dust, you need a full-face helmet. In that case, closing down the chin bar transforms it from an open to full-face helmet. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And in such a configuration you need the anti-fog visors to enjoy clear visibility of the road. It’s for that reason that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Helmet Gurus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://helmetgurus.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "brings you reliable flip-up helmets with anti-fog face shields.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Benefits of Using Anti-Fog Visors", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One of the qualifications of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "best modular helmet ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "is having an effective anti fog visor. The anti fog face lens offers the following benefits to the rider:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Why Anti-Fog Visors are Essential for Motorcycle Riders", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The technology of anti-fog visors is essential to motorbike rides for several reasons. When riding in a cold environment, a helmet with no anti-fog-protected lens may have poor visibility.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The difference between the exterior cold air and the warm moist air inside the helmet causes condensation on the shield. An anti-fog visor employs several techniques to curb that scenario and guarantees perfect visibility in all weather.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By securing a perfect view of the road, you increase your security and have less chance of causing an accident. Riding in such a case becomes convenient and enjoyable.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Enhanced Safety and Comfort", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anti-fog visors boost the riding experience because your shield remains clear in all circumstances. Without an anti-fog protective lens, riding in the cold weather becomes a real bother.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It may force you to stop every few minutes to manually clean your visor. Alternatively, you may ride with the shield open and face the cold wind hitting your face. If you don’t do so, the visor clogs and robs you of good road visibility.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Popular Modular Helmet Brands with Anti-Fog Visors", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Many leading modular helmet brands integrate anti-fog visors in their helmets. Some of those companies include:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "HJC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Most HJC helmets come with anti-fog-treated visors from the factory, for example, the HJ-09. The anti-fog coating features on both the outside and inside surface of the shield.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However, for the initial time, the ride has to activate the anti-fog treatment to reap its benefits. That involves breathing on the inside surface of the visor to partially fog. Fortunately, you only need to activate it once in a lifetime.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AGV", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AGV helmet brand on the other hand boasts visors that have Max Vision Pinlock. For example, the latest Max Vision Pinlock 120 promises maximum efficiency and doesn’t degrade the optical performance of the face shields. Instead, it promises you maximum possible visibility in all weather conditions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ILM", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ILM is a famous motorcycle helmet company. It mostly uses the famous anti-fog insert technology to curb the fogging problem when riding in winter or cold weather. Often customers have to buy the Pinlock insert separately, for instance the Pinlock 30 insert.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Scorpion", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When it comes to famous modular helmet brands Scorpion falls among the list. In preventing fogging in their modular helmets, the company uses a blend of technologies.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can find the modular helmet with anti fog coated visors for instance the Scorpion EXO AT950. At the same time, the manufacturer also makes Pinlock-ready shields in addition to the anti-fog coating. So, when the coating grows ineffective with time it's easy to install anti-fog Pinlock.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shoei", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shoei counts among some of the champions in the motorcycle helmet industry. In its modular helmets, Shoei taps on the Pinlock EVO anti fog glass. Further, the company employs a silicone seal between the helmet visor and the Pinlock Evo anti-fog glass. The silicone material reaches all the edges of the visor to seal out moisture and thus prevent fogging.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "➥ Related: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Top rated modular motorcycle review guide on helmetgurus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://helmetgurus.com/best-modular-helmet-the-convenient-helmet-for-every-motorcycle.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Comparing Different Anti-Fog Technologies", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Technology has given birth to various ways to fight fogging in motorcycle helmet shields including the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anti-fog Inserts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anti-fog inserts are usually thin, clear, and flexible plastic sheets. You’ll have to attach the plastic anti fog insert to the interior side of the motorcycle visor. Doing so adds a hydrophilic layer that absorbs moisture and therefore maintains the clarity of the visor.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pinlock Insert", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One of the most common and effective techniques of fighting fogging is employing a Pinlock insert. The Pinlock insert employs the double-glazing mechanism to keep the helmet shield at a constant heat level.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Maintaining the constant temperature in the interior and exterior surface of the visor, prevents fogging effects. The Pinlock insert features an organic transparent material and silicone edge all around. The silicone edge seals air and moisture from reaching the visor.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anti-Fog Coating on Visors", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Instead of using an anti fog insert some visors feature an integrated anti-fog coating. The anti-fog coating is added at the factory once and for all. That means the consumer won’t have to apply any other coating. If you take care of it well, the inbuilt anti-fog coating may last for months or even weeks.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anti-Fog Masks", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Still, another technique involves making use of neoprene masks. The neoprene mask contours to the edges of your nose down to the mouth. By doing so it channels the moist air from your nose and mouth away from the visor.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anti-Fog Sprays and Wipes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If your modular helmet has o provision for incorporating anti fog inserts, then the anti fog spray or wipes may be your next best option. You can either use anti-fog wipes or spray to apply the anti-fog chemical on the visor to prevent the accumulation of fog. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Your hemet should boost your safety in all weather conditions. That’s why when choosing the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "best modular helmet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://glose.com/activity/667b736418473f40550800db", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", take note of the anti fog technology employed in the equipment. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whether its anti fog insert, Pinlock lens or anti fog coating on the visor, it should guarantee you clear road visibility while riding. You can count on major companies such as HJC, Shoei, ILM, Scorpion and AGV for the right modular helmet. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}
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1684822142072
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True
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l3ubjnb6vz
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{"NO": 577.3502691896258, "YES": 1732.0508075688776}
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0.24999999999999997
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will-wang-hongning-get-a-girlfriend
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934.3741107959773
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Will Wang Hongning get a girlfriend in 2024?
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1735718340000
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0J9xvYcFr0WVck6YTtnzhGQMsi63
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cpmm-1
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0
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9.617801077831913
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False
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basic
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public
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1720242284776
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Daniel Lee
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1720244738640
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
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0.5
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if-jose-luis-ricon-sumo-wrestled-wi
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0
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If Jose Luis ricon sumo wrestled with dwarkesh Patel, would he win
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4607297940000
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1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
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cpmm-1
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0
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10.586609649448985
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False
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play
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public
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1720242790427
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Stochastic Cockatoo
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
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BINARY
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{"NO": 350.0111688735508, "YES": 2857.051685574275}
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will-democratic-delegates-invoke-th
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2164.3333333333335
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Will Democratic delegates invoke the “good conscience” clause to oust Biden?
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1723895940000
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OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
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cpmm-1
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0
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9.724889635180608
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False
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basic
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public
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1720242870023
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jim
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.aei.org/op-eds/gaming-out-a-biden-exit/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.aei.org/op-eds/gaming-out-a-biden-exit/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the clause is invoked to formally nominate someone other than Biden for 2024 Democratic Party presidential candidate.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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ypu9d6sp5s
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were-any-of-the-2024-acx-book-revie
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1160
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Were any of the 2024 ACX book review finalists written by Scott Alexander?
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1735718340000
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e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
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cpmm-multi-1
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0
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10.586609649448985
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False
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basic
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public
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1720245448798
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Timothy Johnson
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Full contest rules: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://open.substack.com/pub/astralcodexten/p/book-review-contest-rules-2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://open.substack.com/pub/astralcodexten/p/book-review-contest-rules-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll keep adding links to the finalists as they're posted on Substack. At the end of the contest, I expect that Scott will reveal whether he is the author of any of the finalists.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context, Scott submitted two entries last year. One of them was a finalist and would have won first place in the contest, except that Scott decided it was in poor taste to win his own contest.", "type": "text"}]}]}
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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0
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c1oktkyyfw
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what-will-be-the-reason-cited-the-n-goriq2qdmv
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0
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What will be the reason cited the next time the doomsday clock moves closer to midnight?
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1735649940000
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je3Tb8xyVoQieRh6wB3bJxDxsFh1
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cpmm-multi-1
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0
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10.586609649448985
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False
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basic
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public
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1720246992580
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David Shaw
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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The original I created here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/DavidShawe0kg/what-will-be-the-reason-cited-the-n", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/DavidShawe0kg/what-will-be-the-reason-cited-the-n", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " did not have the answers linked. This has fixed it. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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0
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0
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1000
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DavidShawe0kg
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1720246992749
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qntk2n9mg
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in-what-year-will-humans-have-more-6yzac3m9aj
|
20
|
In what year will humans have more sex with robots than with other humans
|
4133941140000
|
je3Tb8xyVoQieRh6wB3bJxDxsFh1
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cpmm-multi-1
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0
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10.586609649448985
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basic
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public
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1720247697930
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David Shaw
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a reupload of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/DavidShawe0kg/in-what-year-will-humans-have-more", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/DavidShawe0kg/in-what-year-will-humans-have-more", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". I messed up and did not link the answers. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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0
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DavidShawe0kg
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1
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1
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ANYONE
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|
0.13333333333333333
|
1720070604966
|
0
|
0.25
|
1720248154804
|
True
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001
|
egmbnpcf08
|
{"NO": 1004.8313115875757, "YES": 995.1919177558842}
|
0.5024098204686493
|
resolves-to-market-unknown-time
|
5
|
Resolves to market (Unknown time)
|
1722434340000
|
je3Tb8xyVoQieRh6wB3bJxDxsFh1
|
cpmm-1
|
0
|
9.570333339714711
|
False
|
basic
|
public
|
1720247907776
|
David Shaw
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have used a uniform distribution to choose a time between now (market formation) and the end of the month to resolve the market. At that point, I will resolve the market with probabilities weighted by the market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(A random time should help to alleviate the issue with last-minute betting in regular \"resolves to market\" Markets. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"creatorFee": 0.1686884124243329, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
0
|
1000
|
DavidShawe0kg
|
1720248160503
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocItmdMDbrPaTfBumggdjD9Q9aFi8GM3HDIsijzgZxrD6PYl5PF5=s96-c
|
1
|
1
|
0.13333333333333333
|
1720070604966
|
0
|
0.25
|
0.5
|
1720248157408
|
0
|
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