p
string | id
string | pool
string | prob
string | slug
string | volume
string | dpmPool
string | question
string | realAnte
string | closeTime
string | creatorId
string | mechanism
string | startPool
string | totalBets
string | dailyScore
string | elasticity
string | isResolved
string | marketTier
string | resolution
string | visibility
string | createdTime
string | creatorName
string | description
string | outcomeType
string | probChanges
string | subsidyPool
string | totalShares
string | collectedFees
string | phantomShares
string | volume24Hours
string | resolutionTime
string | totalLiquidity
string | creatorUsername
string | lastUpdatedTime
string | popularityScore
string | creatorAvatarUrl
string | likedByUserCount
string | uniqueBettorCount
string | cfmmConversionTime
string | uniqueBettorCountDay
string | addAnswersMode
string | answers
string | bountyLeft
string | bountyTxns
string | closeEmailsSent
string | conversionScore
string | coverImageUrl
string | creatorCreatedTime
string | deleted
string | followerCount
string | freshnessScore
string | groupLinks
string | groupSlugs
string | importanceScore
string | initialProbability
string | isPolitics
string | isRanked
string | isSubsidized
string | lastBetTime
string | lastCommentTime
string | loverUserId1
string | loverUserId2
string | matchCreatorId
string | nonPredictive
string | resolutionProbability
string | resolutions
string | resolverId
string | shouldAnswersSumToOne
string | sort
string | totalBounty
string | unlistedById
string | username
string | viewCount
string | wasDpm
string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.0867948537019499
|
will-bitcoin-be-worth-more-than-600
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.0867948537019499
|
will-bitcoin-be-worth-more-than-600
|
15501.067200250913
|
{"NO": 12828, "YES": 2672.932799749088}
|
Will Bitcoin be worth more than $60,000 on Jan 1, 2022 at 12 am ET?
|
200
|
1641091928243
|
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 57.67679976384239, "YES": 42.32320023615761}
|
{"NO": 12828, "YES": 2673}
|
0
|
4.618320448203627
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1639779118231
|
SG
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 14907.490984615304, "YES": 4595.866109467829}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 80.62257748298549, "YES": 59.160797830996174}
|
0
|
1641091928243
|
100
|
SG
|
1639779118231
|
0
|
0
|
37
|
1715658890719
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25445556640624994
|
will-the-warriors-win-the-2022-nba-
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.5
|
will-the-warriors-win-the-2022-nba
|
156
|
{"NO": 110, "YES": 46}
|
Will the Warriors win the 2022 NBA Finals?
|
0
|
1641105051918
|
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 33.333333333333336}
|
{"NO": 110, "YES": 46}
|
0
|
3.653759631593092
|
True
|
play
|
MKT
|
public
|
1639779668060
|
SG
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 221.04298224553523, "YES": 129.13558765886341}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.7213595499958}
|
0
|
1641105051918
|
100
|
SG
|
1639779668060
|
0
|
5
|
1650303498191
|
0
|
0.5
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09846922663537425
|
will-there-be-at-least-three-deaths
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.09846922663537425
|
will-there-be-at-least-three-deaths
|
1072.5094849543584
|
{"NO": 942.5619505426228, "YES": 39.9362627290667}
|
Will there be at least three deaths from a conflict between Russia and Ukraine before 2022?
|
129.00769822604798
|
1641091800037
|
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 81.33945031366292, "YES": 18.660549686337077}
|
{"NO": 942.5573133147456, "YES": 89.4503849113024}
|
0
|
4.656566499642667
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1639779863428
|
SG
|
Resolved YES if there is a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before Jan 1, 2022 at 12 am ET, according to reputable global news sources like Reuters, AP, etc.
Jan 1, 8:46pm: Looks like it was only 1 death. https://olisa.tv/ukraine-lose-soldier-amid-escalation-tension-with-russia/
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 1121.406467958871, "YES": 370.6150423616083}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898}
|
0
|
1641091800037
|
100
|
SG
|
1639779863428
|
0
|
8
|
1715658892042
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9397639921649044
|
6TbreIR2iqm1LICfb7bu
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9397639921649044
|
will-100-people-have-signed-up-for
|
1089.4902900268278
|
{"NO": 111.99999999999997, "YES": 988.5097099731724}
|
Will 100 people have signed up for Mantic Markets by Feb 1, 2022?
|
510
|
1640880491968
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 33.33333333333333, "YES": 66.66666666666667}
|
{"NO": 111.99999999999997, "YES": 983}
|
0
|
4.65593042573639
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639783228674
|
Manifold
|
Tags: #ManticMarkets
Probably of interest to @AustinChen, @SG, and @JamesGrugett
#2022
Dec 18, 3:37am: Also add a link to https://astralcodexten.substack.com/
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 294.48259710889533, "YES": 1163.163978808287}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159}
|
0
|
1640880491968
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639783228674
|
0
|
7
|
1715657448496
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.08514477259674169
|
2q2Us2NKQeVJA68k7eVZ
|
{"NO": 490.4371613502367, "YES": 3469.0188055854637}
|
0
|
will-mantic-markets-have-over-1m
|
12129.905897749217
|
{"NO": 3585.1387071895388, "YES": 1198.7502639844383}
|
Will Manifold Markets have over $1M in revenue by Jan 1st, 2023?
|
80
|
1672531200000
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 33.333333333333336}
|
{"NO": 3665, "YES": 1130}
|
0
|
2.2104819028549345
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1639783730539
|
Manifold
|
Tags: #ManticMarkets
Jan 7, 1:10pm: We changed the name of our platform to Manifold Markets, but this won't effect how we resolve the market (i.e. the question will still resolve true if Manifold Markets has over $1M in revenue by 2023). #ManifoldMarkets
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 4489.463335767932, "YES": 1922.000078558749}
|
{"creatorFee": 21.1768420833198, "platformFee": 0.8125529072275822, "liquidityFee": 4.65375142372306}
|
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.7213595499958}
|
0
|
1672607042544
|
581.617101612271
|
Manifold
|
1672121262965
|
0
|
0
|
108
|
1650313783640
|
0
|
1
|
96
|
[{"name": "Manifold Investors", "slug": "manifold-investors", "groupId": "A2ZvhuOUWz24vfhGP7sO", "createdTime": 1658529429142}]
|
["manifold-investors"]
|
1672121262824
|
1659031290243
|
0.01
|
ManticMarkets
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09333925972229659
|
rDzDMwRWMgqn3oHxsjDH
|
{"NO": 101.28154952977236, "YES": 653.5122762538691}
|
0
|
will-solana-have-a-higher-market-ca
|
4354.552619692753
|
{"NO": 1265.2773611895934, "YES": 270.2317815024506}
|
Will Solana have a higher market cap than Ethereum before the end of 2022?
|
200
|
1672531200000
|
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
|
{"NO": 1298, "YES": 270.00000000000006}
|
0
|
5.650626085665305
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1639792398312
|
James
|
This resolves to true if any time before 11:59pm Dec 31st 2022 Solana has a higher market cap than Ethereum according to https://coinmarketcap.com
#Crypto
#Solana #Ethereum
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 1637.1623139455587, "YES": 569.7129651017765}
|
{"creatorFee": 7.977758033509629, "platformFee": 0.13301101673093804, "liquidityFee": 0.7419702581485914}
|
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
|
0
|
1673396987552
|
120.74197025814858
|
JamesGrugett
|
1672415346578
|
0
|
62
|
1650314776245
|
0
|
3
|
61
|
[]
|
[]
|
1672415346429
|
1661870899459
|
0.02
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5464852607709751
|
TMN0TMy5zNrhxHpes2FC
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.5464852607709751
|
test-resolve
|
10
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}
|
Test resolve
|
0
|
1639866019139
|
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}
|
0
|
4.828237724912245
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639865941016
|
James
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 155.24174696260025}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1639866019139
|
100
|
JamesGrugett
|
1639865941016
|
0
|
1
|
1715658203466
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9728069481742935
|
aIow1jyYUda2UVtPkGAc
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9728069481742935
|
will-mantic-markets-have-5-paying-u
|
3084.907306846478
|
{"NO": 284.0926931535215, "YES": 2751}
|
Will Mantic Markets have 5 paying users by Feb 01, 2022?
|
3.9999999999997726
|
1642282431704
|
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 126.79491924311228, "YES": 73.20508075688772}
|
{"NO": 278.99999999999983, "YES": 2751}
|
0
|
4.630456541051196
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639874031282
|
Austin
|
This refers to creators and users who have specifically chosen to pay money to Mantic.
#ManticMarkets
Jan 15, 4:29pm: Our first 5 paying users (excluding James):
@LarsDoucet
@DuncanMasters
@LucaD'Agruma
@AndyMartin
@TristanKnight
Thank you all so much!
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 533.4388485786787, "YES": 3190.5752904458095}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 99.99999999999999}
|
0
|
1642282431704
|
100
|
Austin
|
1639874031282
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
|
26
|
1715658365948
|
0
|
1642124693315
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5
|
HvJgZ08pKfHgxHyI4OyG
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.5
|
test-na
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
Test n/a
|
0
|
1639874117701
|
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
CANCEL
|
public
|
1639874110071
|
James
|
Milli was here
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1639874117701
|
100
|
JamesGrugett
|
1651991822274
|
0
|
0
|
1715657892496
|
0
|
1651991818392
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9075504278760665
|
qXvdgG2bJ2HeggKEo072
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9075504278760665
|
will-the-mantic-markets-discord-be-
|
435.7219662108225
|
{"NO": 27.278033789177513, "YES": 415}
|
Will the Mantic Markets Discord be a full community by Feb 01, 2022?
|
20
|
1642320869082
|
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 120.871215252208, "YES": 79.128784747792}
|
{"NO": 24, "YES": 415}
|
0
|
4.690162966280456
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639874691457
|
Austin
|
Some sufficient but not necessary measures of a community:
- 100 people signed up
- Averaging 4 posts a day
- 5 meaningful conversations between non-admins
#ManticMarkets
Jan 16, 3:08am: We did it! Some notes:
- I way overestimated the number of signups needed for "liveness". My last startup (One Word's) server had hundreds of people; but Manifold is quite active with a couple dozen!
- We're blowing past 4 daily posts and 5 total meaningful conversations between non-admins.
And meta:
- Maybe the most technically precise phrasing is "Will the Mantic Markets Discord have been a full community by Feb 01, 2022?", but that's
Should we encourage early resolving of markets?
+ Pros: faster trader feedback, less money tied up into markets
- Cons: Market may have to be reversed; less certainty for traders
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 194.93046530883325, "YES": 610.7488384205552}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321}
|
0
|
1642320869082
|
100
|
Austin
|
1639874691457
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
|
9
|
1715658738644
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8521116780045351
|
CUB66MSEU5EzjcezCak4
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.8521116780045351
|
will-3-or-more-prominent-creators-h
|
136
|
{"NO": 6, "YES": 130}
|
Will 3 or more prominent creators have created Mantic markets by Jan 16, 2022?
|
0
|
1642134342592
|
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 84.64640047231524, "YES": 115.35359952768476}
|
{"NO": 6, "YES": 130}
|
0
|
4.753654235783955
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639874991123
|
Austin
|
Possible examples of prominent:
- 10k Twitter followers, or
- Writing is their primary occupation, or
- @AustinChen had read 3 or more of their articles
#ManticMarkets
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 129.2130024417048, "YES": 310.16124838541646}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 118.32159566199236, "YES": 161.24515496597095}
|
0
|
1642134342592
|
100
|
Austin
|
1639874991123
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
|
6
|
1715657764104
|
0
|
1641788238664
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9916666666666667
|
8uRz34QZsgxKqE0frbIM
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9916666666666667
|
futureperfect2021-trump-will-uneven
|
1000
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 1000}
|
#FuturePerfect2021 Trump will uneventfully leave office on January 20
|
0
|
1639972033254
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 1000}
|
0
|
4.655925851497626
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639902739928
|
Manifold
|
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021
To be clear, there is at this point no doubt about whether Trump will leave office on January 20, the official inauguration date for the new president, Joe Biden. Biden secured more electoral votes. Trump’s campaign made a lot of noise but didn’t bring serious allegations of fraud to court, and no court would grant his proposed remedy of overturning the election. His backers have held alternate Electoral College votes and threatened the real electors, but that won’t change the outcome either.
There is likely to be some drama and potentially even violent street protests on January 6, when the Electoral College vote is read before Congress, but that, too, is nearly certain to be political theater that can’t overturn the legal election results.
The only part of this up in the air is the key word “uneventfully.” In December claims circulated that Trump has told his advisers he won’t leave. If the president has to be dragged by force out of the White House, or stages a protest to Biden’s inauguration on Inauguration Day, then I’ll be proven wrong. But my guess is that once every remedy has been exhausted, the president will retreat to Mar-a-Lago or a similar location, continuing to tweet that the election was unfair. —Kelsey Piper
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 1194.9895397031726}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
|
0
|
1639972033254
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639902739928
|
0
|
1
|
1715657656818
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6999999999999998
|
533WxlfLZZH5TAviOX1H
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.6999999999999998
|
futureperfect2021-biden-will-have-a
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
#FuturePerfect2021 Biden will have a treasury secretary, secretary of state, defense secretary, and attorney general confirmed by the end of the year
|
0
|
1639972097558
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639904963517
|
Manifold
|
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021
One of the more depressing political predictions I’ve seen floating around is that, should Republicans hold on to at least one of the two Georgia Senate seats, they will block Biden from assembling a Cabinet, and we’ll have four years of unprecedented political gridlock.
My general starting point for predicting politics is to predict that things will be bad, but not as bad as the gloomiest predictions circulating among pundits, and often mostly bad along dimensions they’re not tracking. Making it impossible for Biden to appoint a secretary of state or similar would be high-profile and divisive; I expect most gridlock to be introduced through less clear-cut strategies. Plus, there’s a chance that Democrats win both Georgia runoffs, which look like toss-ups in the polls.
Given all that, why only 70 percent? One lesson I’ve learned from doing these predictions is that the more detail they have, the more can go wrong. I would bet very confidently that Biden will have a secretary of state, or that he’ll have a defense secretary, etc. But this prediction specifies he’ll have all four, so I should be correspondingly less confident in it. —KP
|
BINARY
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{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
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1639972097558
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100
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Manifold
|
1639904963517
|
0
|
0
|
1715656988355
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0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39999999999999974
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0.39999999999999974
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at-least-one-us-state-will-have-an-
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0
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{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
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At least one US state will have an abortion ban currently blocked by the courts go into effect #FuturePerfect2021
|
0
|
1641095466977
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
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cpmm-1
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{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}
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0
|
4.837765190619555
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True
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play
|
YES
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public
|
1639905206134
|
Manifold
|
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021
The Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.
That said, there’s a significant chance this year will see sweeping changes in abortion access in America. Some 10 states have so-called trigger laws on the books to immediately ban all or almost all abortions if Roe is overturned, and nine other states have laws on the books that are currently blocked under Roe. In Kentucky, for example, one such law would make it illegal to get an abortion past six weeks, even in cases of rape and child molestation, even if the fetus is not viable and will regardless not survive, and even if the pregnant person’s health would be substantially harmed, if they’re not at risk of death or permanent organ damage.
In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.
I consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar. —KP
|
BINARY
|
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{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
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0
|
1641095466977
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639905206134
|
0
|
0
|
1715658023991
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.858906525573192
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MunaJKuJ5SVjef3mrDv7
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.858906525573192
|
no-one-in-trumps-immediate-family-w
|
115
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 115}
|
No one in Trump’s immediate family will be indicted #FuturePerfect2021
|
0
|
1641095124453
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 84.64640047231524, "YES": 115.35359952768476}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 115}
|
0
|
4.762228114049824
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639905264244
|
Manifold
|
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021
Let me be very clear: I am not saying that Jared Kushner and Donald, Melania, Donald Jr., Ivanka, Eric, and the oft-forgot Tiffany Trump are innocent of any and all crimes. I’ve read a little bit on those folks and they seem a bit shady, to be honest.
What I am saying is that liberals right now are overestimating the enthusiasm that will remain for state-level investigations into the Trump family once Trump is out of office. Interest in Bush-era abuses vanished almost immediately in 2009. New York Attorney General Letitia James and Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance are political actors and will notice that the voter demand for such investigations no longer exists come mid-2021. And the Biden Justice Department will likely be reticent to prosecute his predecessor, not least if Hunter Biden is still the target of legal scrutiny. —Dylan Matthews
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 118.32159566199236, "YES": 291.93321153989996}
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 118.32159566199236, "YES": 161.24515496597095}
|
0
|
1641095124453
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639905264244
|
0
|
2
|
1715658035423
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9345252150446955
|
Q1SQ7gEQ7A5KNWMNUcgr
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9345252150446955
|
trump-approval-rating-by-years-end-
|
1725
|
{"NO": 225, "YES": 1500}
|
Trump approval rating by year’s end will be in the 40 to 45 percent range #FuturePerfect2021
|
0
|
1641146441455
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
|
{"NO": 225, "YES": 1500}
|
0
|
4.640756373437741
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639905760770
|
Manifold
|
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021
The president’s approval ratings have been flat throughout his term; no matter what he does, about 55 to 60 percent of the country dislikes him and 40 to 45 percent of the country likes him. An economic boom didn’t change that. A pandemic and attendant economic crash didn’t, either. His refusal to concede the election hasn’t done it. Will that change when he’s out of office?
My bet is on “no.” Most presidents experience a bump in popularity — from nostalgia — once they’re out of office, but it doesn’t seem likely to me that Trump will see such a bump, for the same reason that no other events have affected his approval ratings. Americans know how they feel about Trump, and at this point those feelings are barely responsive to anything Trump does. —KP
Jan 2, 11:57am: Resolved by: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22812197/predict-2021-trump-biden-covid-germany
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 492.56979200921364, "YES": 1860.913754046651}
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
|
0
|
1641146441455
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639905760770
|
0
|
6
|
1715658131367
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29136316337148804
|
sk77vMIfVWjeA1DiY5K7
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.29136316337148804
|
the-us-unemployment-rate-will-stay-
|
110
|
{"NO": 110, "YES": 0}
|
The US unemployment rate will stay above 5 percent through November #FuturePerfect2021
|
0
|
1641095186929
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
|
{"NO": 110, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.764428572192729
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1639906073195
|
Manifold
|
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021
The Trump White House used to talk, back in the spring, about a “snapback” recovery: You lift social distancing restrictions, stuff goes back to normal, and the economy becomes what it was in January 2020, with unemployment at 3.6 percent and falling. I don’t see it happening.
Yes, the vaccine rollout will spur people to spend more again. But the rollout will also be gradual, and there will be tremendous uncertainty about what it’s safe for vaccinated people to do, when to stop wearing masks, when it’s okay to go on airplanes or to indoor restaurants, and so forth. All that will weaken a vaccine-driven recovery.
What’s more, Congress chose in December to pass real but inadequate stimulus measures. The $300/week bonus to unemployment insurance is good but not enough, and giving almost no aid to states and localities is ridiculous. The inadequate assistance, and lack of retroactive aid for August through December when emergency UI had expired, means there’ll be some debt overhang from people using credit cards and other kinds of loans to get by without congressional assistance. The low level of state and local aid also means hiring and purchases by state and local governments will be low, which will meaningfully hurt the recovery.
The Fed can, and should, ramp up asset buys (“quantitative easing”) and keep promising to keep interest rates low to aid the recovery, but the economy needs more drastic demand stimulus than that. With a closely divided Senate, possibly under Republican control, I don’t think that additional fiscal stimulus will be forthcoming after the December deal. The result will be a longer and more painful recovery than was necessary. —DM
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 260.95976701399775, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
|
0
|
1641095186929
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639906073195
|
0
|
2
|
1715658790830
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5056881909950328
|
rsa2p7xlmbbW8BKyDAte
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.5056881909950328
|
us-poverty-will-be-higher-in-late-2
|
195
|
{"NO": 125, "YES": 70}
|
US poverty will be higher in late 2021 than it was in late 2020 #FuturePerfect2021
|
0
|
1641095038274
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
|
{"NO": 125, "YES": 70}
|
0
|
4.734166976544415
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1639906124587
|
Manifold
|
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021
I’ve written a lot about the rise in poverty this year since enhanced unemployment insurance (the $600 per week top-up included in the initial Covid-19 relief bill) expired at the end of July, and the projections that it will be rising more still by January. The basics are simple: The US is in a recession, the extremely generous stimulus policies of April through July were so extensive as to actually reduce poverty despite that recession, but since the federal government stopped helping things got progressively worse.
The end-of-2020 deal in Congress included a more modest, $300/week UI benefit boost and some modest direct cash payments to households, which should help reduce poverty temporarily. But I fear that the deal, which looks to expire at the end of March, will result in a similar dynamic as the 2020 stimulus: a brief improvement, followed by deterioration upon its expiration, and gridlock in Congress that prevents further progress.
To be specific, for this prediction I’ll be relying on two monthly measures of poverty: one from the Center on Poverty and Social Policy at Columbia, and one by economists Bruce Meyer, James X. Sullivan, and Jeehoon Han. —DM
Jan 1, 9:41pm: 2021 with lowest poverty rate on record https://www.vox.com/22600143/poverty-us-covid-19-pandemic-stimulus-checks
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 277.7138815399763, "YES": 280.89143810376277}
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
|
0
|
1641095038274
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639906124587
|
0
|
4
|
1715658775203
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7916666666666665
|
YUtsXhGYlxykq9cWyjdD
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.7916666666666665
|
the-median-home-price-in-the-bay-ar
|
40
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 40}
|
The median home price in the Bay Area will fall 5 percent or more #FuturePerfect2021
|
0
|
1641095347139
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 40}
|
0
|
4.804004003587409
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1639906158747
|
Manifold
|
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021
For years, people have been declaring that the Bay Area — my home — is doomed, even as its housing prices and job market continued to boom. But 2020 may have really changed things. Many companies have moved out of expensive San Francisco. Many of their employees have, too. Most people agree that remote work isn’t quite as good — but it provides enormous advantages compared to having to hire in the most expensive market in the United States. I wouldn’t bet on a massive outflow from the Bay in the next year, but I think there will be a steady one, enough to continue this year’s depression in home prices and rents.
To be clear, I think this is a tragedy. With good governance, the San Francisco area could’ve risen to the moment and become a global city with affordable housing for both locals and new arrivals, demonstrating that its values create good places for people to live their lives. Instead, it demonstrated the opposite. It took Covid-19 to bring these consequences, but they were eventually going to happen. —KP
Jan 1, 9:46pm: Actually increased by a lot year over year. https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/san-francisco-real-estate-market/
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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0
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{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 213.5415650406262}
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{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
|
0
|
1641095347139
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639906158747
|
0
|
1
|
1715658324560
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8469387755102041
|
DoSnBlgGoc6wNEsaIc2i
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.8469387755102041
|
100-million-americans-will-be-vacci
|
80
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 80}
|
100 million Americans will be vaccinated, at least partially, against the coronavirus by end of April #FuturePerfect2021
|
0
|
1641094467195
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 80}
|
0
|
4.7791534511702505
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639906190478
|
Manifold
|
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has predicted that the vaccine will be widely available to Americans by April. Some back-of-the-envelope math tells me there’ll be enough supply to fully vaccinate 100 million people.
Pfizer has agreed to give the US 100 million doses by the end of March; since each person has to get two doses, that’s enough to fully vaccinate 50 million. And Moderna says it’ll have 85 million to 100 million doses ready for Americans in the first quarter, providing full inoculation for perhaps another 50 million. Some other vaccines, such as AstraZeneca’s, may also start rolling in.
That said, it’s not enough for the US to have lots of vaccine doses on hand; it also has to distribute the doses efficiently. Distribution has been frustratingly slow in December and the early days of January, placing the country far behind its initial target. So I’m not highly confident that the US will manage to get two shots each to 100 million people by end of April.
However, I do think there’s a significant likelihood of getting at least one shot to that many people within that timeframe. Fauci says vaccination rates may accelerate soon, and he thinks the country can hit a target of 1 million shots per day. That rate would make Biden’s stated goal — distributing 100 million shots in his first 100 days as president — achievable. —SS
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 257.6819745345025}
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
|
0
|
1641094467195
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639906190478
|
0
|
1
|
1715657799374
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29319398191641444
|
rXis568Ovm53jeg0pvww
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.29319398191641444
|
restaurant-reservations-and-consume
|
1042.8253688395303
|
{"NO": 671.17463116047, "YES": 439.9999999999999}
|
Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year #FuturePerfect2021
|
600
|
1641094448660
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
|
{"NO": 637.0000000000001, "YES": 439.9999999999999}
|
0
|
4.652712462652056
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1639906217326
|
Manifold
|
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021
With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at this page of government statistics to see if I got this one right. —KP
Jan 1, 9:30pm: Restaurant goers decreased 19% year over year by Dec 6th 2021. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104362/coronavirus-restaurant-visitation-impact-us/
|
BINARY
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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0
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{"NO": 1096.9083935623198, "YES": 706.4765749672785}
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|
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
|
0
|
1641094448660
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639906217326
|
0
|
10
|
1715658770756
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3132787468850124
|
yljQbdaVZWEaH8hrElMw
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.3132787468850124
|
a-deadly-new-zoonotic-outbreak-will
|
65
|
{"NO": 65, "YES": 0}
|
A deadly new zoonotic outbreak will emerge #FuturePerfect2021
|
0
|
1641146569947
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 94.98743710661996, "YES": 105.01256289338004}
|
{"NO": 65, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.787664358140534
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True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1639906647019
|
Manifold
|
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021
I know, I know, everyone is going to hate me for saying this. And to be clear, I’m not saying we’ll see an outbreak that rises to the level of a pandemic like Covid-19, which reached into pretty much every corner of the planet. But I do think we may see the emergence of a disease that starts in animals, spills over into humans, and causes at least a few dozen deaths.
Why do I think this? As Martha Nelson, who studies viruses at the National Institutes of Health, told us on the Future Perfect podcast, we’re “playing Russian roulette” with animals. Our environmental practices (like cutting down forests and destroying other animal habitats) and our factory farming system (where pigs, chickens, cows, and more are crowded together in unsanitary conditions) make zoonotic outbreaks increasingly likely.
No less than 75 percent of new diseases originate in animals, and they’ve been popping up with alarming frequency in recent years. H5N1 came from birds in 1997. H1N1 came from pigs in 2009. Ebola spread from bats in 2014. There’s also Zika, and West Nile, and several others. I’m afraid we’ll see a new killer zoonotic disease in 2021. I hope I’m wrong. —SS
Jan 2, 12:02pm: Resolved no — https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22812197/predict-2021-trump-biden-covid-germany
|
BINARY
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 219.60191255997748, "YES": 148.32396974191323}
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{"NO": 134.16407864998737, "YES": 148.32396974191323}
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0
|
1641146569947
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100
|
Manifold
|
1639906647019
|
0
|
2
|
1715658958387
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.438957475994513
|
Nw3XZnNhUMQhG9nCu3yb
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.438957475994513
|
the-us-will-enact-policies-to-hold-
|
70
|
{"NO": 70, "YES": 0}
|
The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open
|
0
|
1641094105799
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
|
{"NO": 70, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.784730694915448
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True
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play
|
YES
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public
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1639906735075
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Manifold
|
#FuturePerfect2021
In 2020, the Biden campaign referred to China’s repression of Uighur Muslims as “genocide.” In 2021, I have no doubt that Biden will repeatedly condemn the camps where more than 1 million of them have been held. I am also fairly confident that the US will pass at least one significant bill aimed at holding China accountable, especially given that Uighur forced labor has leached into the supply chain of American companies.
But I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.
Getting China to shut down the system would require much bigger incentives — financial as well as reputational. But China is simply so economically powerful that it’s hard to imagine the US being willing to hit it too hard financially. And the world is struggling to even get the reputational piece of the puzzle in place; the International Criminal Court recently decided not to investigate China’s repression of the Uighurs. —SS
Jan 1, 9:25pm: I think this resolves yes, as there were some US sanctions passed, e.g.: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/12/16/us-sanctions-china-biotech-sector-over-uighur-rights-abuses
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 202.23748416156687, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
|
0
|
1641094105799
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639906735075
|
0
|
2
|
1715658071751
|
0
|
[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659742983088}]
|
["china"]
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6000000000000003
|
QHDiHnJUgCL0OTiTgPUX
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.6000000000000003
|
the-hadi-government-and-houthi-rebe
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
The Hadi government and Houthi rebels in Yemen reach a peace agreement #FuturePerfect2021
|
0
|
1641093921588
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1639906820529
|
Manifold
|
This bet is motivated by a few developments that together make me think 2021 could be the year the devastating conflict in Yemen that has already killed more than 100,000 people comes to an end — or, at the very least, the year that a temporary ceasefire begins as peace talks get underway. My specific prediction is that there will be either a formal peace deal between the Saudi-backed Hadi government and the Iranian-backed Houthis or else a tentative ceasefire. The latter sadly seems more likely.
The biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including actual special forces troops on the ground). Bipartisan pressure from Congress to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.
The Biden campaign in fact promised to end support for the Saudis in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — signed an open letter urging the same.
At the same time, Biden and his team are eager to have the US rejoin the multilateral nuclear deal with Iran and to more broadly reverse the Trump administration’s efforts to antagonize the country and reverse all diplomatic progress made under Obama. Iran is understandably hesitant to just let the US ping-pong in and out of agreements from election to election, and so withdrawing from Yemen and working to broker a peace between Iran’s proxies and Saudi Arabia’s would be an important show of good faith on the US’s part.
Beyond Biden, though, there have been encouraging signs on the ground in Yemen. Saudi Arabia recently signaled openness to a ceasefire (albeit on terms the Houthis may not accept), and unilaterally called a brief ceasefire in April. There was a large-scale prisoner swap in September. On their own, these are not grounds for unbridled optimism, but they suggest that an engaged and motivated US administration, newly distanced from Saudi Arabia, could help force a truce. —DM
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
|
0
|
1641093921588
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639906820529
|
0
|
0
|
1715658138015
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9
|
iMgS3nAkBc6xWhSlsYih
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9
|
ldp-continues-to-govern-japan-futur
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
LDP continues to govern Japan #FuturePerfect2021
|
0
|
1641093729827
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639906869179
|
Manifold
|
I’m grouping these together on the somewhat tenuous grounds that I’m predicting each major former Axis power will continue to be governed by the center-right party that has dominated its politics since shortly after World War II (this pattern has not held in Italy because nothing about Italian politics makes any sense).
The Liberal Democratic Party’s grip on Japan and the Christian Democratic Union’s grip on Germany are not absolute. Japan has had brief periods of non-LDP rule, such as when the opposition Democratic Party held office from 2009 to 2012, but they have tended to be short-lived, and the opposition to the LDP is prone to factionalism and infighting. Polling suggests the party and new Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide don’t face any serious opposition in 2021. It doesn’t hurt that the country has weathered Covid-19 exceptionally well.
Similarly, the German Social Democratic Party (SDP) has been able to form cabinets: Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt’s governments in West Germany from 1969 to 1982, and Gerhard Schroeder’s from 1998 to 2005. But in the 15-year regime of Angela Merkel, the SDP has usually been the junior coalition partner to the Christian Democrats and is in danger of losing its status as the dominant center-left party in the country to the Greens. As it stands, though, the Greens are a distant second to CDU by some 15 to 20 points. The real question is who, exactly, a CDU win would make prime minister, as Merkel is retiring after the election and the CDU leadership race continues. —DM
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}
|
0
|
1641093729827
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639906869179
|
0
|
0
|
1715658559336
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6611570247933886
|
gnr3LwF4VZB05HiEKiML
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.6611570247933886
|
cdu-continues-to-govern-germany-fut
|
20
|
{"NO": 20, "YES": 0}
|
CDU continues to govern Germany #FuturePerfect2021
|
0
|
1641093643475
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
|
{"NO": 20, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.819494920240895
|
True
|
play
|
CANCEL
|
public
|
1639906892425
|
Manifold
|
I’m grouping these together on the somewhat tenuous grounds that I’m predicting each major former Axis power will continue to be governed by the center-right party that has dominated its politics since shortly after World War II (this pattern has not held in Italy because nothing about Italian politics makes any sense).
The Liberal Democratic Party’s grip on Japan and the Christian Democratic Union’s grip on Germany are not absolute. Japan has had brief periods of non-LDP rule, such as when the opposition Democratic Party held office from 2009 to 2012, but they have tended to be short-lived, and the opposition to the LDP is prone to factionalism and infighting. Polling suggests the party and new Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide don’t face any serious opposition in 2021. It doesn’t hurt that the country has weathered Covid-19 exceptionally well.
Similarly, the German Social Democratic Party (SDP) has been able to form cabinets: Willy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt’s governments in West Germany from 1969 to 1982, and Gerhard Schroeder’s from 1998 to 2005. But in the 15-year regime of Angela Merkel, the SDP has usually been the junior coalition partner to the Christian Democrats and is in danger of losing its status as the dominant center-left party in the country to the Greens. As it stands, though, the Greens are a distant second to CDU by some 15 to 20 points. The real question is who, exactly, a CDU win would make prime minister, as Merkel is retiring after the election and the CDU leadership race continues. —DM
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 128.06248474865697, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
|
0
|
1641093643475
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639906892425
|
0
|
1
|
1715658530042
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6999999999999998
|
5z2Sfu4s3k9PCDFspmKB
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.6999999999999998
|
indias-economy-will-grow-in-quarter
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
India’s economy will grow in quarters 1-3 of 2021 after shrinking briefly in 2020 #FuturePerfect2021
|
0
|
1641093325668
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1639906917460
|
Manifold
|
One of the greatest tragedies of the Covid-19 crisis is that it forced low-income countries to choose between halting years and years of progress against poverty, and allowing a massive public health catastrophe to unfold. India opted for mandatory activity restrictions in certain areas perceived as at risk of Covid-19 outbreaks in the spring, and the predictable result of that and the global economic contraction was a recession, the first since 1980. India reversed course and reopened quite quickly, and is now up to over 10 million cases (second only to, well, the US).
If the public health situation deteriorates further and necessitates more lockdowns, the recession could drag out. But as it stands, the situation seems to be improving. From July to September, the economy shrank by 7.5 percent year over year compared to a shocking 24 percent contraction in April through June. That gives me hope that in the new year, the economy will be growing again.
India releases its GDP numbers in a fiscal year schedule where April through June was “quarter 1” of the “2020-2021 fiscal year,” so to be specific, what I’m predicting is that India’s GDP will grow in both nominal and real terms in quarter 4 of the 2020-2021 fiscal year, and quarters 1 and 2 of the 2021-2022 fiscal year. —DM
Jan 1, 9:14pm: Nope, India GDP decline Q1-Q2 of 2021 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01INQ652S
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
|
0
|
1641093325668
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639906917460
|
0
|
0
|
1715657232589
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.75
|
A9OlpSsTXKmqNzwzHmtC
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.75
|
at-least-three-new-basic-income-pil
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
At least three new basic income pilots will be launched #FuturePerfect2021
|
0
|
1641093236858
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 73.20508075688772, "YES": 126.79491924311228}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639906945476
|
Manifold
|
Covid-19 boosted public support for the idea of a basic income. As the pandemic unexpectedly wiped out millions of people’s finances through no fault of their own, advocates argued that citizens desperately need some sort of guaranteed payment to fall back on. Some governments and philanthropists listened. Spain started offering payments of up to 1,015 euros ($1,145) to the poorest families in the country. Germany started a new basic income experiment. And in the US, a coalition of mayors — with a $15 million grant from Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey — launched guaranteed income pilots in several US cities.
I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered. —SS
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}
|
0
|
1641093236858
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639906945476
|
0
|
0
|
1715657692810
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5456981479097246
|
ooiNbYz6Adqcv7eUfLPa
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.5456981479097246
|
an-ai-breakthrough-will-lead-to-a-g
|
342.951762253568
|
{"NO": 117.53360757983006, "YES": 159.51463016660193}
|
An AI breakthrough will lead to a game-changing advance in biology
|
160
|
1641105648981
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 73.20508075688772, "YES": 126.79491924311228}
|
{"NO": 140, "YES": 170}
|
0
|
4.714942594112902
|
True
|
play
|
MKT
|
public
|
1639911727422
|
Manifold
|
#FuturePerfect2021
In 2020, a couple of amazing AI breakthroughs rocked the biology world. First, researchers trained a neural network to predict which molecules (out of 107 million possibilities!) would have antibacterial properties, enabling them to identify brand new types of antibiotics. Then, DeepMind’s AlphaFold system cracked the “protein folding problem,” a grand challenge of biology that had vexed scientists for 50 years. That’ll likely speed up and improve scientists’ ability to develop new drugs.
The AI field is moving at such a fast clip that I think we’ll see at least one breakthrough of this magnitude in 2021. I’m talking about something that pushes biology forward by a significant margin. —SS
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 320.7030803914318, "YES": 351.4852604879959}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}
|
0
|
1641105648981
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639911727422
|
0
|
3
|
1715658688875
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9685324968140379
|
v9BWeFT1A408eWSgT415
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9685324968140379
|
global-carbon-emissions-will-increa
|
305
|
{"NO": 5, "YES": 300}
|
Global carbon emissions will increase
|
0
|
1641093169411
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
|
{"NO": 5, "YES": 300}
|
0
|
4.709441087460418
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639911755749
|
Manifold
|
#FuturePerfect2021
This is a perennial prediction, one of those that is mostly true every year. Global carbon emissions keep rising because the world economy is growing faster than it’s shifting to non-greenhouse-gas-emitting energy sources. Last year, global carbon emissions fell, but that was caused by the near-total shutdown of the global economy, which won’t be sustained in 2021. In fact, I’m even more confident than usual that we’ll see carbon emissions grow, because they will increase from 2020’s lower baseline. —KP
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 89.58236433584459, "YES": 496.9909455915671}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}
|
0
|
1641093169411
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639911755749
|
0
|
3
|
1715658844670
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9266880048773053
|
a5aZJiubmrloG5IT50wR
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9266880048773053
|
average-world-temperatures-will-inc
|
205
|
{"NO": 5.000000000000005, "YES": 200.00000000000003}
|
Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2020
|
2.842170943040401e-14
|
1641093142183
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
|
{"NO": 5.000000000000005, "YES": 200.00000000000003}
|
0
|
4.731395359985805
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639911786438
|
Manifold
|
#FuturePerfect2021
Average world temperatures have increased most years for the past several decades, though there’s a little bit of noise, so any given year isn’t a sure thing. This is a direct consequence of increased carbon emissions, but with some lag — I don’t expect last year’s small decrease in CO2 to produce a decline in average global temperatures, but just a slightly slower rate of increase. —KP
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 109.65856099730654, "YES": 389.87177379235857}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
|
0
|
1641093142183
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639911786438
|
0
|
3
|
1715658355698
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9124133585381222
|
fiJOEnlSrgC4XRfbxYr3
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9124133585381222
|
plantbased-meat-market-share-will-i
|
145
|
{"NO": 5.000000000000005, "YES": 140.00000000000003}
|
Plant-based meat market share will increase by at least 20 percent
|
2.842170943040401e-14
|
1641093048572
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
|
{"NO": 5.000000000000005, "YES": 140.00000000000003}
|
0
|
4.750278660841244
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1639911816780
|
Manifold
|
#FuturePerfect2021
In the past few years, we’ve seen the takeoff of plant-based meat products — foods designed to have the taste and nutrient content of meat without the environmental, health, and animal welfare costs of factory farming. Plant-based meat is only a tiny fraction of overall animal meat sales, but it’s grown dramatically in the past few years.
Even if that growth slows, it should comfortably top 20 percent from the previous year. The return of restaurant dining is likely to help the plant-based meat market, too — while the products are available in supermarkets and have done well there, they got their start in restaurants, where it’s easier to convince consumers to try something new and unfamiliar. I’ll measure this by getting data on sales of refrigerated plant-based meat products from the Good Food Institute — meaning this prediction, if it’s close, might not be settled until the following March, when all its data for the year is in (unless preliminary data can tell us enough). —KP
Jan 1, 9:08pm: Looks like a Yes: https://gfi.org/marketresearch/
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 102.10288928331069, "YES": 329.5451410656816}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
|
0
|
1641093048572
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1639911816780
|
0
|
3
|
1715658511120
|
0
|
[{"name": "Animal Consumption Trends", "slug": "animal-consumption-trends", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "RTDjcmMVJN1MfAy3U0vD", "createdTime": 1673334319423}]
|
["animal-consumption-trends"]
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1903628792385485
|
X8SxNgjw7m8sSSL81rRn
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.1903628792385485
|
will-austinchen-test-positive-for-c
|
5
|
{"NO": 5, "YES": 0}
|
Will @AustinChen test positive for Covid again before 2022?
|
0
|
1641384365780
|
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}
|
{"NO": 5, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.832896892548729
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640018823652
|
Austin
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 184.4586674569672, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
|
0
|
1641384365780
|
100
|
Austin
|
1640018823652
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
|
1
|
1715658286847
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9407042248045538
|
Y9y4EzGooKs2wsmrh934
|
{"NO": 142.16442101180738, "YES": 118.70435787185785}
|
1
|
omicron-has-a-100-or-bigger-transmi
|
1150.739754989472
|
{"NO": 33, "YES": 381.4389221078994}
|
#Omicron has a 100% or bigger transmission advantage in practice versus Delta
|
0
|
1672531200000
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
|
{"NO": 33, "YES": 385}
|
0
|
8.803950083046319
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640032580361
|
Manifold
|
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7
It’s pretty hard to look at the UK data and draw any other conclusion. I hold out the possibility that this is an early-stage thing enough that it might not break 100% exactly, but this doesn’t seem like an interesting question anymore, since at most we are ‘talking price’ and the better question is our best guess as to exactly how big an advantage. I’ll think about what the best replacement is.
Dec 20, 5:37pm: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/20/omicron-post-8
The various ways in which Omicron looks potentially to have been halted imply the potential for a much reduced generation time (aka serial interval) for Omicron, which would allow what we’ve witnessed without the need for a super large transmission advantage. Thus, it seems somewhat more plausible we won’t fully hit 100% after the initial wave.
#Covid
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 151.95064988344078, "YES": 595.3538351275795}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}
|
0
|
1672607346727
|
120
|
Manifold
|
1672607349836
|
0
|
17
|
1650314636693
|
0
|
1
|
18
|
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}]
|
["medicine"]
|
1670079811077
|
1672607344234
|
0.95
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3022959183673469
|
ESgg78HIKX8kmbjnR0Kr
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.3022959183673469
|
omicron-is-importantly-more-virulen
|
80
|
{"NO": 30, "YES": 50}
|
#Omicron is importantly more virulent than Delta
|
0
|
1641105741255
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 170.08782529950642, "YES": 29.912174700493576}
|
{"NO": 30, "YES": 50}
|
0
|
4.7791534511702505
|
True
|
play
|
MKT
|
public
|
1640032598978
|
Manifold
|
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 233.88031127053, "YES": 153.94804318340653}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 196.9771560359221, "YES": 34.64101615137755}
|
0
|
1641105741255
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640032598978
|
0
|
4
|
1715657814249
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7810118757787051
|
vuMGnysmTD8e4P0KrF7h
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.7810118757787051
|
omicron-is-importantly-less-virulen
|
4839.685088457736
|
{"NO": 1314.2142941860834, "YES": 3110.100617356181}
|
#Omicron is importantly less virulent than Delta
|
500
|
1642025742487
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
|
{"NO": 1360, "YES": 3272}
|
0
|
4.625874097249466
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640032621777
|
Manifold
|
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7
The data from Denmark and South Africa point in opposite directions here. Saying ‘oh well they cancel out’ is the coward’s way out for sure, but until I have more time to process that’s where I am at. I’ll probably update at some point soon off no new information when I decide what it all means.
Dec 20, 5:37pm: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/20/omicron-post-8
I do think that the evidence this past few days was modestly in favor of similar virulence to Delta, but I did not find it conclusive or especially strong.
#Covid
Jan 12, 4:04pm: We are going to resolve this early to YES. We think Zvi means 'less severe' when he writes 'less virulent' and there is substantial evidence for that.
Zvi: "Time keeps passing and we keep seeing the same patterns, I think we can safely say that it’s importantly less virulent." https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/01/07/omicron-post-13-outlook/
However, this question could be phrased in a clearer way, and we don't want to confuse our users. Note that this is one of the first markets we created back when this site was only a prototype.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 2163.9291619487076, "YES": 4086.5947873462997}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
|
0
|
1642025742487
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640032621777
|
0
|
36
|
1715658858230
|
0
|
1642023061325
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0969825211047191
|
mUSMqeAJeiZbVfExV90k
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.0969825211047191
|
cdc-labels-omicron-a-variant-of-hig
|
13
|
{"NO": 13, "YES": 0}
|
CDC labels #Omicron a variant of high consequence before 2022
|
0
|
1641095842871
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 147.97698539916914, "YES": 52.023014600830855}
|
{"NO": 13, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.825537052153998
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640032683078
|
Manifold
|
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7
I mean they should based on what I think it means, but whether or not they will doesn’t have much to do with that. Still waiting.
Update Dec 20, 5:38pm: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/20/omicron-post-8
This number hasn’t adjusted for the time that has passed, and it should have. Slightly rich market.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 202.4080037943164, "YES": 66.332495807108}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 188.67962264113208, "YES": 66.332495807108}
|
0
|
1641095842871
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640032683078
|
0
|
1
|
1715658644525
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19500022340101356
|
XGFWYnoTPT0cyRXJ1SyR
|
{"NO": 84.4119197787744, "YES": 234.3097169567438}
|
0
|
we-will-be-getting-boosters-modifie
|
2419.1793780672233
|
{"NO": 692.1397962797432, "YES": 250.62800067544345}
|
We will be getting boosters modified for #Omicron within 6 months of our previous booster shot
|
0
|
1661990400000
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 120.871215252208, "YES": 79.128784747792}
|
{"NO": 691, "YES": 235}
|
0
|
4.449020330856445
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640032716607
|
Manifold
|
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7
Fauci is outright saying we don’t need an updated booster ‘at this time.’ That definitely kills any super rapid response but in the later part of the window it still seems plausible.
Update Dec 20, 5:39pm: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/20/omicron-post-8
The Europeans did order the shots, but the ‘we’ here was intended to be Americans, and it seems like we’re not interested for now. That could easily change, though.
#Covid
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 1024.5381950494086, "YES": 506.20126890665887}
|
{"creatorFee": 3.6819209016719734, "platformFee": 0.26714253440689295, "liquidityFee": 1.4994481926369905}
|
{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321}
|
0
|
1663403800969
|
101.49944819263698
|
Manifold
|
1663292512643
|
0
|
34
|
1650314628792
|
0
|
1
|
35
|
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601091}]
|
["medicine"]
|
1661972053836
|
1663292510422
|
0.08026318643865717
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0922017384766347
|
gtylK3mSEju9pK25gmgq
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.0922017384766347
|
we-are-broadly-looking-at-a-future-
|
1416.6494248509916
|
{"NO": 864.3505751490084, "YES": 127}
|
We are broadly looking at a future crisis situation with widely overwhelmed American hospitals, new large American lockdowns and things like that
|
20
|
1647810917058
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 115.35359952768478, "YES": 84.64640047231522}
|
{"NO": 867, "YES": 127}
|
0
|
4.656216504852619
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640032756261
|
Manifold
|
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7
The data in the UK and Ontario, and the data now coming in from various American cities, and the CDC nowcast, all point in the direction that this is happening fast. There’s no sign of a robust policy response anywhere, so maybe we really will let it burn, but I have no idea how we actually do it. Then again, I have no idea how we do another set of lockdowns. Something has to give. I notice that I don’t expect to do indoor dining (or, given the winter, much dining out at all) for much longer, but will it go further than that? I notice increasingly that I don’t have a good handle on how to think about the policy response that we’ll actually get because neither do any of the policymakers. I don’t think they’re thinking about it much at all.
Update Dec 20, 5:39pm: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/20/omicron-post-8
The hospitals are at capacity now, but the early promising signs (or more exactly, the lack of signs of either panic or truly horizontal lines) makes me somewhat less concerned that we’ll be unable to handle things. So I’m mildly more optimistic that we’ll ‘get away with it.’
#Covid #Omicron
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 1135.085501459316, "YES": 361.74576707958863}
|
{"creatorFee": 5.515114290520196, "platformFee": 1.378778572630049, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 161.24515496597098, "YES": 118.32159566199235}
|
0
|
1647810917058
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640032756261
|
0
|
19
|
1715658535890
|
0
|
1
|
1646214889697
|
0.0922017384766347
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8198235089371633
|
MGFdKLaUezNlI8kcJSYp
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.8198235089371633
|
omicron-will-be-1-of-all-cases-by-t
|
21
|
{"NO": 20, "YES": 1}
|
#Omicron will be >1% of all cases by the end of the year
|
0
|
1641097193274
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 18.2650497368698, "YES": 181.7349502631302}
|
{"NO": 20, "YES": 1}
|
0
|
4.818660066730059
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640032799351
|
Manifold
|
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7
This already happened. It’s done.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 93.80831519646861, "YES": 200.1024737478275}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 20.00000000000012, "YES": 198.99748742132397}
|
0
|
1641097193274
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640032799351
|
0
|
2
|
1715658005571
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07023319615912209
|
cIUH8y3MmGzfDMBh9i8Z
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.07023319615912209
|
1-biden-approval-rating-as-per-538-
|
475
|
{"NO": 475, "YES": 0}
|
1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%
|
0
|
1641089672786
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
|
{"NO": 475, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.6865284317652485
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640033825488
|
Manifold
|
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 650.8648093114268, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
|
0
|
1641089672786
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640033825488
|
0
|
4
|
1715658423472
|
0
|
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529419320}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181861359}]
|
["world-default", "us-politics"]
|
False
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.041322314049586785
|
aTAiqACrcL1TLyb5tHZt
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.041322314049586785
|
2-court-packing-is-clearly-going-to
|
20
|
{"NO": 20, "YES": 0}
|
2. Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year)
|
0
|
1641092264521
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 162.67890062732585, "YES": 37.321099372674155}
|
{"NO": 20, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.819494920240895
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640033825883
|
Manifold
|
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 215.40659228538016, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
|
0
|
1641092264521
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640033825883
|
0
|
1
|
1715658369317
|
0
|
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529419170}]
|
["world-default"]
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19742461805834394
|
uWUbRZcDTbdHkpFRAzmt
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.19742461805834394
|
3-yang-is-new-york-mayor
|
630.0505663462242
|
{"NO": 479.9494336537758, "YES": 170}
|
3. Yang is New York mayor
|
200
|
1640880323142
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
|
{"NO": 470, "YES": 170}
|
0
|
4.672706871205053
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640033826200
|
Manifold
|
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 755.2158556429341, "YES": 374.56641600656087}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
|
0
|
1640880323142
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640033826200
|
0
|
8
|
1715658832893
|
0
|
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529422305}]
|
["world-default"]
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05000000000000002
|
PCqaIuj7xYki8MNyHV0R
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.05000000000000002
|
4-newsom-recalled-as-ca-governor
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
4. Newsom recalled as CA governor
|
0
|
1640880539363
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 162.67890062732585, "YES": 37.321099372674155}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640033826454
|
Manifold
|
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
|
0
|
1640880539363
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640033826454
|
0
|
0
|
1715658106183
|
0
|
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529417047}]
|
["world-default"]
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4408888888888889
|
MWzNRuVifNR8NB9WVoeC
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.4408888888888889
|
5-at-least-250-million-in-damage-fr
|
175
|
{"NO": 75, "YES": 100}
|
5. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year
|
0
|
1641104945093
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 120.871215252208, "YES": 79.128784747792}
|
{"NO": 75, "YES": 100}
|
0
|
4.740126993650499
|
True
|
play
|
MKT
|
public
|
1640033826721
|
Manifold
|
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
Jan 2, 12:17am: This one is not obvious how to resolve -- it probably depends on what protests count as BLM. I think the spirit of it is narrower than for just any protest on the left.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 280.40149785619906, "YES": 248.99799195977465}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321}
|
0
|
1641104945093
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640033826721
|
0
|
4
|
1715658020955
|
0
|
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416541}]
|
["world-default"]
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20000000000000007
|
lXUZCKgQ1gHwpiLjJqqN
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.20000000000000007
|
6-significant-capital-gains-tax-hik
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
6. Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket)
|
0
|
1641092251833
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640033826987
|
Manifold
|
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
|
0
|
1641092251833
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640033826987
|
0
|
0
|
1715658621810
|
0
|
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420532}]
|
["world-default"]
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2589258233302554
|
Wza07gYckp8AN2jWerRA
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.2589258233302554
|
7-trump-is-allowed-back-on-twitter
|
370
|
{"NO": 265, "YES": 105}
|
7. Trump is allowed back on Twitter
|
0
|
1641091732099
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}
|
{"NO": 265, "YES": 105}
|
0
|
4.699132952183791
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640033827257
|
Manifold
|
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 490.68829209590893, "YES": 290.0431002454635}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
|
0
|
1641091732099
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640033827257
|
0
|
6
|
1715658282436
|
0
|
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529418453}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181887166}]
|
["world-default", "donald-trump"]
|
False
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44799999999999995
|
NyHkWsu114SjFu9Hos2P
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.44799999999999995
|
8-tokyo-olympics-happen-on-schedule
|
50
|
{"NO": 50, "YES": 0}
|
8. Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule
|
0
|
1640880564685
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
|
{"NO": 50, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.797109350291602
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640033827499
|
Manifold
|
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 185.7417562100671, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
|
0
|
1640880564685
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640033827499
|
0
|
1
|
1715658073097
|
0
|
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416746}]
|
["world-default"]
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20000000000000007
|
L3iszAfeL2Sgvmpm3Ggr
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.20000000000000007
|
9-major-flareup-significantly-worse
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
9. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war
|
0
|
1641092148353
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640033827726
|
Manifold
|
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
|
0
|
1641092148353
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640033827726
|
0
|
0
|
1715657967101
|
0
|
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416328}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224303}]
|
["world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]
|
False
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05000000000000002
|
vv7yvECSIKe7UIyLgRIC
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.05000000000000002
|
10-major-flareup-significantly-wors
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
10. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict
|
0
|
1641092038988
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 162.67890062732585, "YES": 37.321099372674155}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640033827979
|
Manifold
|
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
Biggest flare-up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israel%E2%80%93Palestine_crisis
Looks like under 300 deaths, which wouldn't be significantly worse than anything in last 10 years.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
|
0
|
1641092038988
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640033827979
|
0
|
0
|
1715658861074
|
0
|
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529422596}, {"name": "Israel", "slug": "israel", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1670788014399}]
|
["world-default", "israel"]
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0453514739229025
|
9zlsXQF7aFNVhRmMTzuc
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.0453514739229025
|
11-major-flareup-significantly-wors
|
10
|
{"NO": 10, "YES": 0}
|
11. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict
|
0
|
1641091709105
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 162.67890062732585, "YES": 37.321099372674155}
|
{"NO": 10, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.828237724912245
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640033828321
|
Manifold
|
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 205.1828452868319, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
|
0
|
1641091709105
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640033828321
|
0
|
1
|
1715657689844
|
0
|
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529414099}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659742983089}]
|
["world-default", "china"]
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39999999999999974
|
MjN2AcDPZUtGEipPv3jg
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.39999999999999974
|
12-netanyahu-is-still-israeli-pm
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
12. Netanyahu is still Israeli PM
|
0
|
1640880349142
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640033828593
|
Manifold
|
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
|
0
|
1640880349142
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640033828593
|
0
|
0
|
1715658027393
|
0
|
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416611}, {"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1658529562244}]
|
["israeli-politics", "world-default"]
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11019283746556473
|
kpB5LgfThfykDpGY0nIY
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.11019283746556473
|
13-prospera-has-at-least-1000-resid
|
130
|
{"NO": 130, "YES": 0}
|
13. Prospera has at least 1000 residents
|
0
|
1641092685935
|
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 120.871215252208, "YES": 79.128784747792}
|
{"NO": 130, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.75600003485126
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640033829095
|
Manifold
|
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 311.2876483254676, "YES": 109.54451150103321}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321}
|
0
|
1641092685935
|
100
|
Manifold
|
1640033829095
|
0
|
2
|
1715658602611
|
0
|
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420454}]
|
["world-default"]
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9333333333333333
|
Um61u0dg0f3fG4bR0U9c
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9333333333333333
|
will-acx-grants-fund-mantic-markets
|
400
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 400}
|
Will ACX Grants fund Mantic Markets?
|
0
|
1640334616437
|
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 400}
|
0
|
4.695099173273781
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640133003771
|
Austin
|
This excludes ACX Grants+ or ACX Grants++
#ManticMarkets #ACX
#ManifoldMarkets #Funding
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 579.6550698475776}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
|
0
|
1640334616437
|
100
|
Austin
|
1640133003771
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
|
1
|
1715658228957
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7470747152438756
|
1k9pPxBPRMPCx6lwDrkM
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.7470747152438756
|
if-scott-alexander-creates-a-market
|
1417.3570084000535
|
{"NO": 217.27891633695435, "YES": 751.3640752629922}
|
If Scott Alexander creates a market, will 100 people have traded on Mantic by Feb 1, 2022?
|
0
|
1643748268081
|
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
|
{"NO": 220, "YES": 738}
|
0
|
4.656997668241115
|
True
|
play
|
CANCEL
|
public
|
1640136073244
|
Austin
|
#JanRoadmap
Feb 1, 12:44pm: resolving to NA as the criteria has not been met.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 587.7301669943424, "YES": 1010.0988528953369}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}
|
0
|
1643748268081
|
100
|
Austin
|
1640136073244
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
|
13
|
1715656898502
|
0
|
1641744663428
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6000000000000003
|
DPQ4DmKPODAMtZBYTMps
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.6000000000000003
|
if-manticmarkets-implements-a-centr
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
If #ManticMarkets implements a central limit order book, will 100 people have traded on Mantic by Feb 1, 2022?
|
0
|
1643748324194
|
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
CANCEL
|
public
|
1640136153835
|
Austin
|
#JanRoadmap
Feb 1, 12:44pm: resolving to N/A
As the condition has not been met
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
|
0
|
1643748324194
|
100
|
Austin
|
1640136153835
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
|
0
|
1715657785868
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.75
|
IbpiLh3QHucSkGLNLo3u
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.75
|
if-manticmarkets-implements-a-twitt
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
If #ManticMarkets implements a Twitter-like feed, will 100 people have traded on Mantic by Feb 1, 2022?
|
0
|
1641384307582
|
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 73.20508075688772, "YES": 126.79491924311228}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
CANCEL
|
public
|
1640136207437
|
Austin
|
#JanRoadmap
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}
|
0
|
1641384307582
|
100
|
Austin
|
1640136207437
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
|
0
|
1715657910061
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1666666666666667
|
4Ue3FG9EfOmzZwu00Q5l
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.1666666666666667
|
will-the-university-of-michigan-win
|
400
|
{"NO": 300, "YES": 100}
|
Will the University of Michigan win the College Football Championship in 2021/2022 season?
|
0
|
1641014838244
|
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 126.79491924311228, "YES": 73.20508075688772}
|
{"NO": 300, "YES": 100}
|
0
|
4.695099173273781
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640146781337
|
BCG
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 547.7225575051662, "YES": 244.94897427831785}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 99.99999999999999}
|
0
|
1641014838244
|
100
|
BruceGrugett
|
1640146781337
|
0
|
4
|
1715656972408
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25521868100612816
|
uT1j2SWhZuiaA0myti9q
|
{"NO": 78.1718107547828, "YES": 321.41212705417826}
|
0
|
will-at-least-75-of-the-usa-covid19
|
26461.774095893557
|
{"NO": 2673.5102506179705, "YES": 1831.0429332564868}
|
Will at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22?
|
20
|
1663875999948
|
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
|
{"NO": 2905, "YES": 1835}
|
0
|
1.3321510819711833
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640203834520
|
Austin
|
Resolved according to https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/
Dates are inclusive.
#ZviOnOmicron #Omicron
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 4049.726729543199, "YES": 2394.12118113881}
|
{"creatorFee": 21.611424615718686, "platformFee": 1.5025115315902107, "liquidityFee": 6.065704735395165}
|
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
|
0
|
1663875999948
|
106.06570473539514
|
Austin
|
1663876025590
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
|
52
|
1650314795313
|
0
|
1
|
52
|
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601086}, {"name": "Covid", "slug": "covid", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "iGfuM2jmlUwyQVMGyDbi", "createdTime": 1662506891682}]
|
["medicine", "covid"]
|
1663865816724
|
1663876023295
|
0.07693171722580107
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6371882086167804
|
pLuBoYJE8Abupo9bpWzV
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.6371882086167804
|
will-austinchen-go-rock-climbing-to
|
10
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}
|
Will @AustinChen go rock climbing tomorrow (2021-12-23) evening?
|
0
|
1640583469655
|
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}
|
0
|
4.828237724912245
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640233015906
|
Austin
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 167.63054614240215}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
|
0
|
1640583469655
|
100
|
Austin
|
1640233015906
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
|
1
|
1715658704802
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7965882476050642
|
Ep8WgE0eriTjFkfSaXWe
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.7965882476050642
|
will-we-deploy-the-feature-to-sell-
|
31.057403257498045
|
{"NO": 4.400000000000003, "YES": 24.542596742501956}
|
Will we deploy the feature to sell your position before 2022?
|
20.000000000000007
|
1640642742357
|
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 69.37367983719986, "YES": 130.62632016280014}
|
{"NO": 4.400000000000003, "YES": 25.6}
|
0
|
4.812379921074141
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640380482892
|
James
|
Mantic Markets moves quickly. Does it move this quickly?
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 103.18914671611546, "YES": 204.20339019667367}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 93.80831519646861, "YES": 176.63521732655693}
|
0
|
1640642742357
|
100
|
JamesGrugett
|
1640380482892
|
0
|
1
|
1715657825613
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5237301319098058
|
6G3L7V0GlN5spXOyuUjL
|
{"NO": 109.65790860703913, "YES": 91.70906870247069}
|
0.568009910921683
|
test
|
801.4257245377564
|
{"NO": 41.94475352929649, "YES": 19.999999999999886}
|
test
|
0
|
1656547200000
|
gFHPYoVtLOS2WLltl971yF35Fgf2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 84.64640047231524, "YES": 115.35359952768476}
|
{"NO": 43, "YES": 20}
|
0
|
2.785684542343061
|
True
|
play
|
CANCEL
|
public
|
1640643213952
|
Pablo Abdelhay
|
test
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 184.43170525027384, "YES": 186.0107523773827}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 118.32159566199236, "YES": 161.24515496597095}
|
0
|
1697234900413
|
103.6572544164287
|
PabloAbdelhay
|
1697239883158
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjxZMBrDlp81t7NGaw0wifr_eis3fc2zVnSmNtekcE=s96-c
|
12
|
1650313805342
|
0
|
1
|
14
|
[]
|
[]
|
1656496076541
|
1697239879387
|
0.57
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2461734693877551
|
8PUi4k6pedeDOSgZNxpo
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.2461734693877551
|
will-any-of-the-202122-college-foot
|
80
|
{"NO": 50, "YES": 30}
|
Will any of the 2021-22 College Footbal Playoff games be canceled due to Covid-19?
|
0
|
1641912696605
|
VglwDx84R4NShD6wGqfVt94AhCM2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 139.2335130598626, "YES": 60.76648694013741}
|
{"NO": 50, "YES": 30}
|
0
|
4.7791534511702505
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640654451138
|
Isaac Grow
|
Will the orange bowl, cotton bowl, or the National Championship game be canceled due to Covid-19?
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 243.10491562286438, "YES": 138.92443989449805}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 183.30302779823361, "YES": 80}
|
0
|
1641912696605
|
100
|
IsaacGrow
|
1640654451138
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_MCoOkrp-cDeQe9hXBGIVA5sPiYM1xJPxYhvv=s96-c
|
3
|
1715657640068
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15910258973773866
|
J5vxtwRSw6qJnhVhy5EU
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.15910258973773866
|
will-scott-alexander-put-a-question
|
810.3694423620948
|
{"NO": 317.7562709941757, "YES": 89.87428664372948}
|
Will Scott Alexander put a question on Mantic Markets before February 1st 2022
|
40
|
1643748914790
|
kGsyRrJ3rgYG9ud4g955Pa9LXMJ2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 318, "YES": 81}
|
0
|
4.694134252476404
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640663091864
|
Dan Sparkman
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 557.2000077877485, "YES": 242.3696472264722}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1643748914790
|
100
|
DanSparkman
|
1640663091864
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwsVdgEz5wh4BhS7jLewnQIQYu5N9DOJDlDJsIQ=s96-c
|
11
|
1715657927522
|
0
|
1642369762084
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.799120701907672
|
c95RFVoZ2NxCap3fFgZy
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.799120701907672
|
will-the-top-post-on-redditcomrallt
|
3946.591076820257
|
{"NO": 1093.408923179743, "YES": 2040}
|
Will the top post on reddit.com/r/all/top for January 1, 2022 be an image?
|
2000
|
1641082054886
|
ntQa9hKfnRMdPyy4C242tPykGXg1
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 1500, "YES": 2040}
|
0
|
4.630008176731355
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640663849081
|
Dwaxe
|
This market will resolve positively if the top post on reddit.com/r/all/top/ on the first archive captured on archive.today on or after 02 Jan 2022 00:00:00 UTC is an image file (e.g. jpeg or png).
Dec 30, 3:07am: Animated images will resolve negatively (e.g. mp4 or gif)
Jan 1, 4:04pm: Here it is: https://archive.ph/MgC7V
The top post is a video (https://archive.ph/o/MgC7V/https://www.reddit.com/r/nextfuckinglevel/comments/rtin5r/this_was_so_smooth/), so this resolves negatively.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 1493.8575515666853, "YES": 2979.5301643044327}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1641082054886
|
100
|
Dwaxe
|
1640663849081
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjJ6tgn98yYchUQgck8HyjzyvkYhq5czx8soxoztQ=s96-c
|
9
|
1715658417478
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10835609213979035
|
puvWOBELmtn3r5797ag4
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.10835609213979035
|
will-england-enter-lockdown-before-
|
921.0549905556235
|
{"NO": 660.9450094443764, "YES": 90}
|
Will England enter lockdown before 1 February 2022?
|
40
|
1643710680384
|
Ra9jlFAEZeSqByhDgqPYTiKHFDm2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 676, "YES": 90}
|
0
|
4.666359790065699
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640691626172
|
Ferruginous Duck
|
This market will resolve to ‘yes’ if by 11:59:59 GMT on 31/01/22 England has entered what I consider to be a nationwide ‘lockdown’: working from home required if possible, pubs and restaurants shut across (almost) the whole country, news stories asserting there’s a lockdown, etc.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 897.553618856011, "YES": 312.8897569432403}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1643710680384
|
100
|
FerruginousDuck
|
1640691626172
|
0
|
13
|
1715658722414
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.678791567841227
|
JEBkPNuPE4eDWKul2CBe
|
{"NO": 800.4323601850615, "YES": 1091.180607610161}
|
0.6078682761724682
|
will-the-runnerup-in-the-2024-us-pr
|
7160.624932163984
|
{"NO": 518.7878759609526, "YES": 1004.6178456481409}
|
Will the runner-up in the 2024 US Presidential Election accept their defeat by Dec 31, 2024?
|
1028
|
1767225600000
|
uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 864, "YES": 940}
|
0
|
9.54640513274091
|
False
|
basic
|
public
|
1640703303623
|
Mosiah
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is an ongoing court case to determine the winner at any time in 2025, it's a no.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other nos include armed conflict led by the non-conceding candidate, or the party of the non-conceding candidate largely supporting the notion that the election result has no legitimacy. (In 2020, Trump and his diehards rejected the outcome of the election, but the Republican Party accepted it, so applying my criteria to 2020 would've yielded a YES. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": -0.006530822499724698, "month": -0.006530822499724698}
|
0
|
{"NO": 850.5805287532477, "YES": 1497.918943373591}
|
{"creatorFee": 8.171847286320437, "platformFee": 0.12073312812051641, "liquidityFee": 0.13196461848071217}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1000
|
Mosiah
|
1720121109954
|
0
|
57
|
1650313892879
|
1
|
1
|
31
|
[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798870163}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181869295}]
|
["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"]
|
1720121106887
|
1689761183495
|
False
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0233596948502121
|
S0pYkvY8VsVhSZraR9xa
|
{"NO": 985.0735190518246, "YES": 1600.934255316316}
|
0.014503827007968024
|
will-dwayne-johnson-win-the-2024-us
|
104723.032595619
|
{"NO": 18682.211359888686, "YES": 2709.70187065767}
|
Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
|
2
|
1737331200000
|
uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 181.7349502631302, "YES": 18.2650497368698}
|
{"NO": 19207.98, "YES": 2707.02}
|
0.06503381583486567
|
10.586609649448985
|
False
|
basic
|
public
|
1640703608159
|
Mosiah
|
resolving Jan 20, 2025
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 20836.785864935344, "YES": 5659.500792020877}
|
{"creatorFee": 23.405613091819806, "platformFee": 1.7359243369396786, "liquidityFee": 4.05092080615632}
|
{"NO": 198.997487421324, "YES": 20}
|
0
|
1000
|
Mosiah
|
1716683058147
|
1.1
|
2
|
295
|
1650314594833
|
0
|
1
|
245
|
[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}]
|
["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"]
|
0.23159411188300635
|
1716683036369
|
1689743421234
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09716026957737768
|
kwXI2svhJoKrLknayCnY
|
{"NO": 154.26061285153656, "YES": 1723.1369048668553}
|
0
|
will-apple-sell-an-apple-branded-ar
|
2100.770131963385
|
{"NO": 379.8368118056486, "YES": 70}
|
Will Apple sell an Apple branded AR or VR Headset by December 1st 2022?
|
0
|
1669852800000
|
J10mJNy7p9QjO0s3jRgwx2jyras2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 395, "YES": 70}
|
0
|
5.205699661757211
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640745210543
|
Oliver266
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 598.5742608412235, "YES": 252.9757621514618}
|
{"creatorFee": 0.3249822404118069, "platformFee": 0.013766175260189896, "liquidityFee": 0.08259705156113936}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1680827284623
|
200.08259705156115
|
Oliver266
|
1680827290852
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyAz9ROQnkPI_hlRdHWHuVdBb2DspfEzYTjblEb=s96-c
|
19
|
1650314735998
|
0
|
26
|
18
|
[{"name": "Virtual Reality", "slug": "virtual-reality", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "tHkKwsHjd8vhks1CL5oF", "createdTime": 1669828366234}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673670048723}]
|
["virtual-reality", "please-resolve"]
|
1669828425945
|
1680827288446
|
0.01
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.0654477263175542
|
sxU8YDAHs9JtHya48xqj
|
{"NO": 135.08718174939222, "YES": 227.04730337594103}
|
0
|
will-ethereum-overtake-bitcoin-in-t
|
2490.059617431748
|
{"NO": 1471.6679401834117, "YES": 153.88409833954552}
|
Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in term of Market Capitalization at any time during 2022?
|
0
|
1672531200000
|
J10mJNy7p9QjO0s3jRgwx2jyras2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 1474, "YES": 155}
|
0
|
8.855825937943768
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640745842641
|
Oliver266
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 1756.4918633612863, "YES": 497.36966061564596}
|
{"creatorFee": 1.5627595279501114, "platformFee": 0.009973524976078353, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1680209533590
|
140
|
Oliver266
|
1680209532170
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyAz9ROQnkPI_hlRdHWHuVdBb2DspfEzYTjblEb=s96-c
|
36
|
1650314786925
|
0
|
18
|
38
|
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676092564657}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1691181913336}]
|
["please-resolve", "crypto-speculation"]
|
1670080398126
|
1680209528710
|
False
|
0.04
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9899999999999998
|
DwZsMM1eG0wOo0MHwxue
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9899999999999998
|
i-got-to-admit-its-getting-better-j
|
0
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
I got to admit its getting better, just a little better all the time.
|
0
|
1641223437539
|
kGsyRrJ3rgYG9ud4g955Pa9LXMJ2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 18.2650497368698, "YES": 181.7349502631302}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
|
0
|
4.837765190619555
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640746887617
|
Dan Sparkman
|
I don't know that this question will ever resolve. I wanted to see is its possible to have a market in general optimistic outlook.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 20.00000000000012, "YES": 198.99748742132397}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 20.00000000000012, "YES": 198.99748742132397}
|
0
|
1641223437539
|
100
|
DanSparkman
|
1640746887617
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwsVdgEz5wh4BhS7jLewnQIQYu5N9DOJDlDJsIQ=s96-c
|
0
|
1715657800584
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5444234404536862
|
InwkaleGXKJaOX4tBDnw
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.5444234404536862
|
cant-get-much-worse
|
30
|
{"NO": 10, "YES": 20}
|
Can't get much worse.
|
0
|
1643771853909
|
kGsyRrJ3rgYG9ud4g955Pa9LXMJ2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 10, "YES": 20}
|
0
|
4.811443379367307
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640746923481
|
Dan Sparkman
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 155.24174696260025, "YES": 169.7056274847714}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1643771853909
|
100
|
DanSparkman
|
1640746923481
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwsVdgEz5wh4BhS7jLewnQIQYu5N9DOJDlDJsIQ=s96-c
|
2
|
1715657917867
|
0
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9416757840601819
|
eRa29YBHAoAgcUMy2XLH
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9416757840601819
|
will-mantic-markets-still-be-using-
|
2022.5379281689068
|
{"NO": 303.06207183109325, "YES": 1528.4}
|
Will Mantic Markets still be using a Dynamic Parimutuel system by Feb 01, 2022?
|
2
|
1643748283388
|
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
|
{"NO": 252.60000000000002, "YES": 1528.4}
|
0
|
4.639429470443879
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640748966361
|
Austin
|
#ManticMarkets
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 490.60503355183243, "YES": 1971.3250756582877}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
|
0
|
1643748283388
|
100
|
Austin
|
1640748966361
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
|
12
|
1715658485634
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5468255137400045
|
kaPN4D0TGZttoDPdblSK
|
{"NO": 306.58988824779755, "YES": 160.9898986496633}
|
0.6967822795183737
|
will-i-be-a-regular-user-of-this-we
|
2163.350113961429
|
{"NO": 85.88843690603446, "YES": 108}
|
Will I be a regular user of this website in 2022?
|
80
|
1680826523320
|
FtiFGSEK9wYoNVHHgfSMil2lWNI2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}
|
{"NO": 90, "YES": 108}
|
0
|
1.5823652909320354
|
True
|
play
|
CANCEL
|
public
|
1640751403214
|
Jasper Day
|
I will set a reminder on my calendar to update this market at the end of 2022. If the reminder is the first time I've thought about the website for at least 2 months, I will update the market to "No." Otherwise I will update it to "Yes."
I will seed the initial bet at 20% probability with $50 of my own fake money.
Dec 29, 4:16am: Initial seeding proved difficult. It would be nice if you could add an ante to your market creation, since there's less reason to bet on a market without an ante (you are at the mercy of other people also betting, otherwise you simply lose your money)
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 276.17975407413286, "YES": 280.84053089554004}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
|
0
|
1680826529763
|
221.26636444213082
|
JasperDay
|
1680852146569
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gif93SxmVS_Qi8nd08CpqKEnqt32wJor0MMcYV6uw=s96-c
|
22
|
1650314733791
|
0
|
20
|
21
|
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676092564891}]
|
["please-resolve"]
|
1672530801276
|
1680852140707
|
0.7
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6359313075253026
|
6GcxrHQkGPeuHrO10Hcb
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.6359313075253026
|
will-sports-still-matter-a-lot-to-t
|
235.61849920903865
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 34.381500790961354}
|
Will sports still matter a lot to the average American in 2040?
|
0
|
1645279590450
|
fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 35}
|
0
|
4.80811268893524
|
True
|
play
|
CANCEL
|
public
|
1640760825965
|
Sam
|
This market will resolve positively ("Yes") if sports still matter a lot to the average American on January 1, 2040.
Examples of sports mattering a lot:
- Youth spend significant amounts of time training, playing and thinking about sports
- Adults spend significant time/money watching sports or organizing social outings around sporting events
- Media dedicate content to analyze sports or use sports as a lens in which to discuss contemporary issues
- Talented athletes hold an elevated status in culture/society and earn high wages
I generally define sports as physical athletic activity but may shift this definition to consider e-sports if it makes sense in the context of 2040.
Dec 29, 1:53am: This is a subjective question but I feel that it's resolvable. I'll probably do some research on money spent on sports, the size of the sports market, etc but it'll be more of a gut feeling resolution. Are kids still seeking athletic scholarships? Are sports bars thriving on Saturday/Sunday nights? Is sports still a common language in which average Americans discuss contemporary issues? These are the kinds of questions I'll use to decide whether sports still matter a lot.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 186.90823393586336}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1645279590450
|
100
|
sam
|
1640760825965
|
0
|
4
|
1715657383797
|
0
|
1
|
0.6359313075253026
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9510855495775847
|
4EY1wV58irrOOJjtrF5r
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9510855495775847
|
will-russia-invade-ukrainian-territ
|
19118.035116822968
|
{"NO": 1300.5744914479635, "YES": 10453.390391729072}
|
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
|
0
|
1645692199077
|
KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 115.35359952768478, "YES": 84.64640047231522}
|
{"NO": 1135, "YES": 10451}
|
0
|
4.61929433203868
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640787639799
|
nic
|
This question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.
Feb 3, 11:53am:
as a ref: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/
Feb 22, 11:26am: I'm still waiting for the metaculus question to resolve before resolving this market.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 2641.6003108606833, "YES": 11658.44004255674}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 161.24515496597098, "YES": 118.32159566199235}
|
0
|
1645692199077
|
100
|
nic_kup
|
1690172724293
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c
|
59
|
1715656970117
|
0
|
1
|
1653767518472
|
1690172722280
|
0.9510855495775847
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20062668019726185
|
6QmZt0KH2BiHegTlzqTh
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.20062668019726185
|
will-the-united-states-legalize-rea
|
236.99999999999997
|
{"NO": 30.00000000000003, "YES": 7}
|
Will the United States legalize real money prediction markets by June 1, 2023?
|
0
|
1645568655535
|
mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}
|
{"NO": 30, "YES": 7}
|
0
|
4.806175753603968
|
True
|
play
|
CANCEL
|
public
|
1640791010262
|
Andrew Hartman
|
I feel like the title sums it up pretty well. I consider this to be a major barrier to the development of the markets at the moment.
We'll say that this one will be resolved positively if the federal government allows at least some real money markets to exist, even if there's some sort of onerous licensing scheme or a particularly painful set of regulations, provided that those regulations don't break the fundamental operation of the market. I am considering "real money" to mean "permits dollar-denominated predictions" here, which is a judgement merely about adoptability, not the soundness of crypto.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 211.89620100417093, "YES": 106.15554625171501}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
|
0
|
1645568655535
|
100
|
AndrewHartman
|
1640791010262
|
0
|
5
|
1715657413575
|
0
|
1
|
0.20062668019726185
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16926799058814002
|
Hna8LSuNDcvK7MS5OBgV
|
{"NO": 318.61220672261584, "YES": 2574.440440529444}
|
0
|
will-starship-reach-orbit-by-the-en
|
5535.21424160072
|
{"NO": 203.32849463992375, "YES": 469.9747292994923}
|
Will Starship reach orbit by the end of 2022?
|
0
|
1672531200000
|
wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 201, "YES": 483}
|
0
|
1.65852415015075
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640799021863
|
DAL59
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve as yes, if, by January 1st, 2023, a SpaceX Starship (or renamed equivalent) launched in 2022 will enter a stable orbit around the Earth. Reentry and landing are not required.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 2, 9:14pm: Note: actually completing the orbit without failing is unnecessary, this is based on extrapolated trajectories at any point in the flight. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 461.69362135511466, "YES": 741.2809999878431}
|
{"creatorFee": 9.465968117158544, "platformFee": 0.5138557294696786, "liquidityFee": 3.0201454431793295}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1672549595093
|
523.0201454431793
|
DAL59
|
1710451914579
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c
|
59
|
1650313883540
|
0
|
1
|
56
|
[{"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh"}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
|
["spacex", "space", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
|
1672438800451
|
1669069661956
|
0.02
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.946904985257169
|
zo6ss3HoE124auWSeDXZ
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.946904985257169
|
will-axie-infinitys-slp-token-be-wo
|
1791.9379234798141
|
{"NO": 201.06207652018588, "YES": 1227}
|
Will Axie Infinity's $SLP token be worth less than $0.01 USD (1 cent) by February 1, 2022?
|
100
|
1643699436335
|
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 82.47806930608819, "YES": 117.52193069391181}
|
{"NO": 126, "YES": 1227}
|
0
|
4.645360573084767
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640805011182
|
Lars Doucet
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by January 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, Axie Infinity's Smooth Love Potion ($SLP) token trades for less than $0.01 USD. For the avoidance of doubt, the price in USD must be less than $0.01 USD at the time of closing, not temporarily dipping below that price before then and then recovering.
For adjudicating the price in USD, we will accept agreement of two out of three of the following sites: Coin Market Cap, Coinbase, Coingecko, specifically these three URL's:
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/smooth-love-potion/
https://www.coinbase.com/price/smooth-love-potion
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/smooth-love-potion
Which is to say, if any two of these sites agree that the price is below $0.01 USD at the time of closing, the market resolves to "Yes."
Dec 29, 1:10pm: "not temporarily dipping below that price before then and then recovering." --> "not *simply* temporarily dipping below that price". It's okay if it dips below and recovers so long as it also goes on to be below the price at closing. The point is that it has to be below the given price AT the time of closing.
#Blockchain
#Gaming
#AxieInfinity
#Economics
#Crypto
Feb 1, 12:58am: CLOSING NOTES
This was ridiculously close.
In the final hours, the price surged to just over $0.01 by *thousandths of a cent* and then plunged RIGHT at midnight. The three sites slightly disagree as to when.
CoinMarketCap says unambiguously that it was < $0.01 at closing time:
https://i.imgur.com/vXMw9SQ.png
CoinGecko says unambiguously that it was > $0.01 at closing time, by *twelve ten-thousandths of a cent*:
https://i.imgur.com/6lbzyy6.png
(five minutes later CoinGecko reported it as < $0.01)
This brings us to CoinBase to break the tie.
It gives us a price of EXACTLY $0.0100 an hour and a half before closing:
https://i.imgur.com/emofmFS.png
But going to the hourly view we get $0.0099 half an hour AFTER closing:
https://i.imgur.com/y0iUZ6q.png
So how do we resolve this? There's two ways to fairly interpret CoinBase:
- Take the closest of the two data points to midnight
- Average the two data points
Either method would result in a value < $0.01
Given this evidence, I think I am being fair and honest and sticking to the letter of my own criteria by resolving this as YES.
I'm kind of astounded by the sheer closeness of this photo finish.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 375.14385158787957, "YES": 1584.251626358335}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 114.89125293076061, "YES": 163.70705543744896}
|
0
|
1643699436335
|
100
|
LarsDoucet
|
1640805011182
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
|
8
|
1715658979521
|
0
|
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529578254}]
|
["economics-default"]
|
1643699375354
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9434927055894305
|
xdBhkVzV9ut46hcsn3iR
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9434927055894305
|
will-axie-infinitys-axs-token-be-wo
|
1694.139045294005
|
{"NO": 236.86095470599503, "YES": 1067}
|
Will Axie Infinity's $AXS token be worth less than $75.00 USD by February 1, 2022?
|
0
|
1643698641182
|
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 131, "YES": 1067}
|
0
|
4.647816823187583
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640805389109
|
Lars Doucet
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by January 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, Axie Infinity's Axie Infinity Shard ($AXS) token trades for less than $75.00 USD. For the avoidance of doubt, the price in USD must be less than $75.00 USD at the time of closing, not simply temporarily dipping below that price before then and then recovering.
For adjudicating the price in USD, we will accept agreement of two out of three of the following sites: Coin Market Cap, Coinbase, Coingecko, specifically these three URL's:
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/smooth-love-potion/
https://www.coinbase.com/price/smooth-love-potion
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/smooth-love-potion
Which is to say, if any two of these sites agree that the price is below $0.01 USD at the time of closing, the market resolves to "Yes."
#Blockchain
#AxieInfinity
#Economics
#Gaming
#Crypto
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 357.48674253631657, "YES": 1460.7535726466663}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1643698641182
|
100
|
LarsDoucet
|
1640805389109
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
|
9
|
1715658924791
|
0
|
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529578106}]
|
["economics-default"]
|
1642807614116
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23866581093751968
|
JOLqUM7VZVWGyPMyjgOM
|
{"NO": 103.73708237350644, "YES": 996.054209916458}
|
0
|
will-joe-rogan-interview-a-guest-ab
|
4123.3286725950675
|
{"NO": 559.5002407118897, "YES": 389.90315540740914}
|
Will Joe Rogan interview a guest about Georgism in 2022?
|
0
|
1672531200000
|
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 581, "YES": 382}
|
0
|
2.953760993125686
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640805909009
|
Lars Doucet
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 11:59:59 PM CT, Joseph James Rogan (aka "Joe Rogan"), host of the "Joe Rogan Experience" on Spotify, invites a guest onto that podcast who mentions any of these three words -- "Georgism", "Geoism", or "Land Value Tax" -- in a favorable context.
#JoeRogan
#Georgism
#Economics
#Podcast
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 919.693364905864, "YES": 689.4144483245958}
|
{"creatorFee": 10.508193245852915, "platformFee": 0.7837413664914017, "liquidityFee": 4.6796007564799}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1672976192735
|
184.67960075647989
|
LarsDoucet
|
1672976168074
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
|
50
|
1650313894454
|
0
|
2
|
47
|
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481023}, {"name": "Georgism", "slug": "georgism", "groupId": "ooKwTVHIXlosW4sq8E5L", "createdTime": 1658529562652}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529568179}]
|
["georgism", "politics-default", "economics-default"]
|
1672069861903
|
1672976161444
|
0.03
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2690540799600938
|
SwvG3sAOo0XtSlfvxhjI
|
{"NO": 154.96597893877947, "YES": 1648.4254964976142}
|
0
|
will-congress-hold-any-hearings-abo
|
2803.912003731245
|
{"NO": 40, "YES": 440.7207753009491}
|
Will Congress hold any hearings about Blockchain/NFT Games in 2022?
|
0
|
1672531200000
|
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 40, "YES": 442}
|
0
|
1.931222242363885
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640806259515
|
Lars Doucet
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, either the House of Representatives or the Senate of the United States of America convenes at least one public hearing in which one or more Representatives or Senators utters the word "Blockchain" or "NFT" in the context of electronic games, or mentions any of the following projects:
- Axie Infinity
- The Sandbox
- Decentraland
- Illuvium
- Star Atlas
- DeFi Kingdoms
- Alien Worlds
- Splinterlands
#Blockchain
#Politics
#USCongress
#USA
#Crypto
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 237.06539182259397, "YES": 638.1071805945496}
|
{"creatorFee": 1.4242050694111938, "platformFee": 0.15866496556916063, "liquidityFee": 0.875236311471908}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1672976736220
|
380.8752363114719
|
LarsDoucet
|
1672527568234
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
|
37
|
1650314601402
|
0
|
2
|
35
|
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1658529411366}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529487817}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529570486}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1691181237816}]
|
["politics-default", "economics-default", "gaming", "crypto-speculation"]
|
1672527567810
|
1670155454681
|
False
|
0.03
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.238107647528278
|
sWF1sPevitxVmUWPOYql
|
{"NO": 194.76562969272493, "YES": 748.6154169312947}
|
0
|
will-congress-hold-any-hearings-abo-e21f987033b3
|
4233.08801146041
|
{"NO": 265.4314512021333, "YES": 411}
|
Will Congress hold any hearings about Roblox in 2022?
|
0
|
1672531200000
|
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 265, "YES": 411}
|
0
|
1.9048853967169042
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640806342983
|
Lars Doucet
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, either the House of Representatives or the Senate of the United States of America convenes at least one public hearing in which one or more Representatives or Senators utters the word "Roblox."
#Roblox
#Gaming
#USCongress
#Politics
#USA
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 565.8338479943242, "YES": 669.301236455016}
|
{"creatorFee": 5.812973908950324, "platformFee": 0.1920410564815317, "liquidityFee": 1.1522463388891901}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1672977419860
|
301.1522463388892
|
LarsDoucet
|
1670531213825
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
|
38
|
1650314784929
|
0
|
2
|
38
|
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508005}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576590}, {"name": "Roblox", "slug": "roblox", "groupId": "JPuRmWhVSpbY88mhJVEU", "createdTime": 1697653286768}]
|
["politics-default", "economics-default", "roblox"]
|
1670531213695
|
0.08
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23731138545953362
|
6FDjyzk3c5hDLdDG7Eid
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.23731138545953362
|
will-a-major-norwegian-political-pa
|
70
|
{"NO": 60, "YES": 10}
|
Will a Major Norwegian Political Party have Land Value Tax in their platform in 2022?
|
0
|
1642097290527
|
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 117.52193069391183, "YES": 82.47806930608817}
|
{"NO": 60, "YES": 10}
|
0
|
4.784730694915448
|
True
|
play
|
CANCEL
|
public
|
1640807646012
|
Lars Doucet
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by January 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, any major Norwegian Political party has mentioned "Land Value Tax" favorably on the section of their website that lays out their platform / list of supported policies. Not using the word "Land Value Tax" but instead mentioning "Property Tax" combined with an exemption for buildings/improvements of greater than 50% of their value will also count. The key Norwegian words are "landskatt" (lit. "land tax") and "eiendomskatt" (lit. "property tax"), but English language versions of the site's text, or public statements endorsing such policies by the leader of any major Norwegian Political party, will also be accepted.
This only has to happen one time by any major Norwegian Political party at any time prior to the closing date to count. IE, if they support it briefly and then remove it later by the closing date, it still counts.
"Major Norwegian Political party" is hereby defined as:
- A political party
- In the Kingdom of Norway
- That has at least 10 MP's in the national parliament ("Stortinget")
As of this writing the following parties qualify, but this may change by the date of closing:
- Labour Party / Arbeiderpartiet
- Conservative Party / Høyre
- Center Party / Senterpartiet
- Progress Party / Fremskrittspartiet
- Socialist Left Party / Sosialistisk Venstreparti
Note furthermore that absence of explicit support for Land Value Tax, but with the presence of support for redistribution of land title ownership, does not count as support for Land Value Tax.
Websites used for principal adjudication:
Labour: https://www.arbeiderpartiet.no
Conservative: https://www.arbeiderpartiet.no
Center: https://www.arbeiderpartiet.no/politikken/
Progress: https://www.frp.no
Socialist Left: https://www.sv.no
Ah shoot, I meant DECEMBER 2022. Oh well, I'll let this one ride and make another one I guess.
#Norway
#Georgism
#Economics
#Politics
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 235.79652245103193, "YES": 131.52946437965906}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 163.70705543744901, "YES": 114.89125293076057}
|
0
|
1642097290527
|
100
|
LarsDoucet
|
1640807646012
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
|
3
|
1715657324894
|
0
|
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529470617}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564937}]
|
["politics-default", "economics-default"]
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.519333273368849
|
9jjQ0IKxIG3zSMWwx9fC
|
{"NO": 15.787828465566236, "YES": 642.5428589777212}
|
0
|
mantic-will-airdrop-crypto-to-early
|
2413.498021502738
|
{"NO": 343.04422663602963, "YES": 433}
|
Mantic will airdrop crypto to early users by June 30, 2022
|
20
|
1656633600000
|
uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 59.163263264897864, "YES": 140.83673673510214}
|
{"NO": 365, "YES": 433}
|
0
|
4.137618877146872
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640813844121
|
Mosiah
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 658.6027903274679, "YES": 720.190483326851}
|
{"creatorFee": 5.962549905228455, "platformFee": 0.9085498370228635, "liquidityFee": 4.445020015918511}
|
{"NO": 77.45966692414838, "YES": 184.39088914585773}
|
0
|
1663868197656
|
104.44502001591853
|
Mosiah
|
1663861368879
|
0
|
34
|
1650313828308
|
0
|
1
|
35
|
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779938573}]
|
["please-resolve"]
|
1656445302250
|
1663861367206
|
0.025860884158929568
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3454024020486703
|
pBK5PqwwRYswCbbMu9t8
|
{"NO": 74.91078244656205, "YES": 751.0154654859002}
|
0
|
will-any-major-known-associates-of-
|
3643.566324508677
|
{"NO": 125, "YES": 102.99291207150708}
|
Will any major known associates of Jeffrey Epstein (besides Ghislaine Maxwell) receive new indictments connected to Epstein's sex trafficking ring in 2022?
|
0
|
1672531200000
|
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 125, "YES": 111}
|
0
|
2.64600748706611
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640817437196
|
Lars Doucet
|
This market will resolve to "Yes", if, by December 31, 11:59:59 PM CT, any of the following people have been indicted for crimes connected to Jeffrey Epstein's sex trafficking ring. This only counts *new* indictments made after this market was posted (December 29, 2021). If someone is arrested but not indicted let's say that counts too.
Prince Andrew
Bill Clinton
Donald Trump
Bill Gates
Kevin Spacey
Alan Dershowitz
Les Wexner
Jes Staley
Leon Black
Dec 30, 3:02pm: To be clear the closing year is 2022.
#Crime
#Epstein
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 294.74565306379, "YES": 310.32713832897184}
|
{"creatorFee": 3.5501234335386114, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1672616003047
|
180
|
LarsDoucet
|
1672498650446
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
|
25
|
1650314763023
|
0
|
1
|
25
|
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505199}]
|
["politics-default"]
|
1672498650262
|
1642285235830
|
0.05
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23924007702462494
|
uC6F5GTnc76W3SUp3MHq
|
{"NO": 87.4928626037557, "YES": 316.4147892090094}
|
0
|
privacy-tokens-will-outgrow-status-
|
1828.184721663175
|
{"NO": 195, "YES": 132}
|
Privacy tokens will outgrow "status symbol NFTs" in 2022
|
0
|
1672531200000
|
uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 150, "YES": 50.00000000000001}
|
{"NO": 195, "YES": 132}
|
0
|
3.4966497623789112
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640817826834
|
Mosiah
|
the purpose of this market is to bet that privacy will outshine social signaling as a core narrative for crypto in 2022
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 451.11528460028927, "YES": 272.44081926172515}
|
{"creatorFee": 1.9319515594544046, "platformFee": 0.03573693411352624, "liquidityFee": 0.21442160468115745}
|
{"NO": 189.73665961010275, "YES": 63.2455532033676}
|
0
|
1672964378474
|
120.21442160468116
|
Mosiah
|
1671140276435
|
0
|
14
|
1650314792950
|
0
|
2
|
15
|
1671140276274
|
1646035333435
|
0.08
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4279156465102925
|
5tCKSQ360eUmPqkOt2Do
|
{"NO": 62.87611837829508, "YES": 344.8936874426506}
|
0
|
will-activisionblizzard-solve-its-r
|
1295.4776894046458
|
{"NO": 248.04770018515728, "YES": 202.52282071983814}
|
Will Activision-Blizzard solve its reputational problems by the end of 2022?
|
0
|
1668382611931
|
UjjXOoTjvNPGA2pQJaXbjd3nmmZ2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 126.79491924311228, "YES": 73.20508075688772}
|
{"NO": 230, "YES": 208}
|
0
|
2.6693627841791674
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640818947120
|
Sydney Yin
|
This market will resolve to Yes if, at the end of 2022, since October 1st, 2022
- No new news stories have been published about employee mistreatment
- No new allegations by employees about harassment or mistreatment have been published
- ABK Workers Alliance has made no specific demands and not taking any collective action
Feb 25, 11:58am: To clarify, this question is specifically about its employees and not about anything else such as the current shareholder suit; that was the original intention of the pool and the specific conditions laid out. Someone should start a pool for the other thing as well though
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 456.53735088547467, "YES": 463.4820923369855}
|
{"creatorFee": 0.4592536547631875, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 99.99999999999999}
|
0
|
1668382611931
|
140
|
Skyedelaciel
|
1667454850245
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj1tbx0Tsb77aVS3rhaMDIkHOUw1S_xcAXCltiXRw=s96-c
|
25
|
1650313803087
|
0
|
1
|
26
|
1667454850146
|
1667312988416
|
0.11999999999999966
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9637457469954268
|
7tr1eICbuKwUeR4dXJxW
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9637457469954268
|
will-the-james-webb-space-telescope
|
1843.2747505153945
|
{"NO": 85.72524948460546, "YES": 1555}
|
Will the James Webb Space Telescope send an image by March 1st, 2022?
|
0
|
1644766028439
|
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 59.163263264897864, "YES": 140.83673673510214}
|
{"NO": 86, "YES": 1555}
|
0
|
4.641914169551345
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640820572774
|
Duncn
|
The James Webb Space Telescope plans to send its first image 33 days after launch. Will it send the first image by March 1st, 2022?
Jan 9, 11:22am: #JamesWebb #space
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 350.29379910319483, "YES": 1807.0870754891735}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 77.45966692414838, "YES": 184.39088914585773}
|
0
|
1644766028439
|
100
|
Duncn
|
1640820572774
|
0
|
18
|
1715657632809
|
0
|
1644766017148
|
0.9637457469954268
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.003967962672892538
|
QIpx3W5nhQMhJCx3569l
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.003967962672892538
|
will-aliens-land-before-february-20
|
8269
|
{"NO": 8207, "YES": 62}
|
Will aliens land before February 2022?
|
0
|
1642110343041
|
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 181.7349502631302, "YES": 18.2650497368698}
|
{"NO": 8207, "YES": 62}
|
0
|
4.621006695470116
|
True
|
play
|
CANCEL
|
public
|
1640821315626
|
Duncn
|
Will aliens make physical contact, through controlled landing or crashing, on Earth or the ISS before on on the the last day of January 2022 (EST)?
Jan 9, 11:21am: #fun #longshots #shortterm #aliens
Jan 12, 5:58pm: There is a bug at work; this market may resolve N/A. #buggy
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 8452.18096114843, "YES": 533.4772722431576}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 198.997487421324, "YES": 20}
|
0
|
1642110343041
|
100
|
Duncn
|
1640821315626
|
0
|
22
|
1715658139185
|
0
|
[{"name": "Aliens", "slug": "aliens", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "FvhchmbPB3fymwvEFx0G", "createdTime": 1661373407191}]
|
["aliens"]
|
1642109633821
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34145472518143305
|
jsdoFT0YQO5bbhQ48szP
|
{"NO": 86.14027949250071, "YES": 959.3898697565908}
|
0
|
will-a-major-norwegian-political-pa-58167546884aa
|
2846.6755181086332
|
{"NO": 192.15401427318204, "YES": 90}
|
Will a Major Norwegian Political Party have Land Value Tax in their platform by the END of 2022?
|
0
|
1672531200000
|
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 117.52193069391183, "YES": 82.47806930608817}
|
{"NO": 195, "YES": 90}
|
0
|
2.407150889520576
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640826083616
|
Lars Doucet
|
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by DECEMBER 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, any major Norwegian Political party has mentioned \"Land Value Tax\" favorably on the section of their website that lays out their platform / list of supported policies. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Not using the word \"Land Value Tax\" but instead mentioning \"Property Tax\" combined with an exemption for buildings/improvements of greater than 50% of their value will also count. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The key Norwegian words are \"landskatt\" (lit. \"land tax\") and \"eiendomskatt\" (lit. \"property tax\"), but English language versions of the site's text, or public statements endorsing such policies by the leader of any major Norwegian Political party, will also be accepted. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This only has to happen one time by any major Norwegian Political party at any time prior to the closing date to count. IE, if they support it briefly and then remove it later by the closing date, it still counts. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Major Norwegian Political party\" is hereby defined as: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- A political party ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- In the Kingdom of Norway ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- That has at least 10 MP's in the national parliament (\"Stortinget\") ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of this writing the following parties qualify, but this may change by the date of closing: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- Labour Party / Arbeiderpartiet ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- Conservative Party / Høyre ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- Center Party / Senterpartiet ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- Progress Party / Fremskrittspartiet ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- Socialist Left Party / Sosialistisk Venstreparti ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note furthermore that absence of explicit support for Land Value Tax, but with the presence of support for redistribution of land title ownership, does not count as support for Land Value Tax. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Websites used for principal adjudication: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Labour: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.arbeiderpartiet.no", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.arbeiderpartiet.no", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Conservative: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://hoyre.no/politikk/var-politikk/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://hoyre.no/politikk/var-politikk/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Center: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.senterpartiet.no", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.senterpartiet.no", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Progress: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.frp.no", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.frp.no", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Socialist Left: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.sv.no", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sv.no", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Dec 31, 4:01pm: #Norway #Georgism #Economics #Politics", "type": "text"}]}]}
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 403.01674094228866, "YES": 264.6696053573209}
|
{"creatorFee": 1.6651398610887558, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 163.70705543744901, "YES": 114.89125293076057}
|
0
|
1672977269818
|
280
|
LarsDoucet
|
1672284550972
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
|
31
|
1650314730258
|
0
|
2
|
30
|
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529502062}, {"name": "Georgism", "slug": "georgism", "groupId": "ooKwTVHIXlosW4sq8E5L", "createdTime": 1658529562858}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529574461}]
|
["georgism", "politics-default", "economics-default"]
|
1672284550823
|
1672071734653
|
0.04
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3147103307568175
|
DKPq5jZKExquT5IK4kmb
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.3147103307568175
|
will-the-predicted-chance-of-this-q
|
9240.605127168921
|
{"NO": 4618, "YES": 2661.394872831078}
|
Will the predicted chance of this question be above 67% on 8:00pm (EST) January 8th, 2022?
|
3580.000000000001
|
1641690014839
|
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 4618, "YES": 3642.0000000000005}
|
0
|
4.621770026988806
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640831866809
|
Duncn
|
Jan 3, 3:18pm: #meta
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 6203.59939726112, "YES": 4203.994627761136}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1641690014839
|
100
|
Duncn
|
1640831866809
|
0
|
21
|
1715657781235
|
0
|
1641680288287
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03454852227523439
|
xZ8NxOK0Z8m854AnFIvY
|
{"NO": 133.71144593001407, "YES": 473.6993670839892}
|
0
|
will-the-world-experience-a-solar-s
|
637.9472242171692
|
{"NO": 219.97596543914875, "YES": 11}
|
Will the world experience a solar storm with significantly negative "EMP" effects in 2022?
|
0
|
1672531200000
|
K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 175, "YES": 24.999999999999996}
|
{"NO": 220, "YES": 11}
|
0
|
10.086811273244678
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640833575998
|
Eli Gaultney
|
This will resolve to 'yes' if A) we experience a solar storm AND B) the radiation knocks out a power grid anywhere in the world. I'll need to see sufficient evidence of B to be certain it wasn't something related to human error or coincidence. The best evidence would be _several_ areas going offline simultaneously.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 422.1602572320212, "YES": 86.72369918309528}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 197.9898987322333, "YES": 28.284271247461895}
|
0
|
1673108803561
|
140
|
EliGaultney
|
1671140247555
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikNvh2CzJfm0pxKrMLcXDGcegWRjIRoPQ4uRqTNiE=s96-c
|
9
|
1650314823204
|
0
|
2
|
10
|
1671140247083
|
0.01
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.03313952933422272
|
Kzj1E5eGb1fMZ664WJ5d
|
{"NO": 160.57489682388132, "YES": 132.09045147878695}
|
0
|
will-at-the-end-of-2022-western-tee
|
3015.8263061084294
|
{"NO": 627.4162662446796, "YES": 111.73488826451955}
|
Will, at the end of 2022 western teenagers spend more time in VR then in real live?
|
200
|
1672531200000
|
wveTqoPjF0ba8oSaSw7MR1RYQjo1
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 653, "YES": 161}
|
0
|
9.054317896302216
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640860916306
|
Christian Sterr
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 927.0741924463784, "YES": 141.8955824027128}
|
{"creatorFee": 0.22662995970972497, "platformFee": 9.995852841257146e-05, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1680826963808
|
160
|
ChristianSterr
|
1680826975897
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzly1ykPBD8_fsRt009i0w8-gLsUQujmzPD56pb=s96-c
|
25
|
1650314540026
|
0
|
20
|
25
|
[{"name": "Virtual Reality", "slug": "virtual-reality", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "tHkKwsHjd8vhks1CL5oF", "createdTime": 1669870829049}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676091893901}]
|
["virtual-reality", "please-resolve"]
|
1671140496226
|
1680826973247
|
0.04
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1827443018153882
|
ZekIG1EqhIo6UKwplQqY
|
{"NO": 120.3153668527134, "YES": 272.0231523815534}
|
0
|
will-apple-reach-a-market-capitaliz
|
1978.0245972836406
|
{"NO": 131, "YES": 30.04853797103246}
|
Will Apple reach a market capitalization of $4 trillion by the end of 2022?
|
0
|
1672531200000
|
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}
|
{"NO": 131, "YES": 30}
|
0
|
3.69340179099992
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640870031279
|
BCG
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 318.28229588286626, "YES": 170.44772482656265}
|
{"creatorFee": 1.8915837672386995, "platformFee": 0.136306548414896, "liquidityFee": 0.8178392904893761}
|
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
|
0
|
1672977038651
|
140.81783929048936
|
BruceGrugett
|
1670081834406
|
0
|
17
|
1650314649509
|
0
|
2
|
17
|
1670081833198
|
1663027609536
|
0.09
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.9861111111111112
|
VD255qA7EACVOfNRrSU5
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.9861111111111112
|
will-wurstcoin-take-off-in-2022
|
1000
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 1000}
|
Will Wurstcoin take off in 2022?
|
0
|
1640880827967
|
4SZcjxY74vZ5ctah3hKSQsutbEj1
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 0, "YES": 1000}
|
0
|
4.655925851497625
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640870094607
|
Thomas Jungblut
|
Wurstcoin (https://wurstco.in/) is an up-and-coming ERC20 token. Will it win the hearts of the average ERC20 trader in 2022?
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 1191.6375287812984}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1640880827967
|
100
|
ThomasJungblut
|
1640870094607
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GitQuQzMF9NBKdRUWroS6GYGOqHFMmPNIXNxCn01Q0=s96-c
|
1
|
1715658241866
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4449907473966839
|
hLhWhotBtzylO2cjfH4O
|
{"NO": 37.724307343833175, "YES": 417.5067842339112}
|
1
|
will-the-sp-500-trade-below-3800-in
|
1385.1226783725588
|
{"NO": 290.38409100049705, "YES": 255.32652512815463}
|
Will the S&P 500 trade below 3800 in 2022?
|
199.99999999999997
|
1655139823517
|
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}
|
{"NO": 346, "YES": 259.99999999999994}
|
0
|
3.2969386170860826
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640870632372
|
BCG
|
This would be about 20% lower than 4793 (the value on December 30, 2021)
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 556.3902389046968, "YES": 496.3210184099453}
|
{"creatorFee": 5.090172329176434, "platformFee": 0.8483620548627391, "liquidityFee": 5.090172329176434}
|
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
|
0
|
1655139823517
|
105.09017232917643
|
BruceGrugett
|
1655139789194
|
0
|
10
|
1650314714324
|
0
|
1
|
1655139786522
|
0.8488325734432997
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5528138702570009
|
ufsOW1kqvsd6iJ3wyQ5h
|
{"NO": 544.295791585986, "YES": 47.23726987604009}
|
1
|
will-the-us-inflation-rate-for-2022
|
1943.8152563709596
|
{"NO": 161, "YES": 289}
|
Will the US inflation rate for 2022 be lower than 6.8% ?
|
0
|
1673831675253
|
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
{"NO": 161, "YES": 289}
|
0
|
2.847360081285612
|
True
|
play
|
YES
|
public
|
1640871074586
|
BCG
|
As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). 6.8% is the inflation rate for 2021.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 428.55454728657355, "YES": 488.71361757168165}
|
{"creatorFee": 1.2727975837130912, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
|
0
|
1673831675253
|
180
|
BruceGrugett
|
1673831656673
|
0
|
0
|
25
|
1650314796480
|
0
|
1
|
26
|
1673591413292
|
1673831651659
|
0.93
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14475035454056437
|
pMYviQdM304uGzDx8vsf
|
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
|
0.14475035454056437
|
will-ireland-introduce-further-covi
|
515
|
{"NO": 415, "YES": 100}
|
Will Ireland introduce further COVID restrictions before 00:01 on 04 Jan 2022
|
0
|
1641255691369
|
bBilVgGF9cYVJn8tOsP3uZOMTL43
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 150, "YES": 50.00000000000001}
|
{"NO": 415, "YES": 100}
|
0
|
4.682668132942492
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640875425276
|
Donal Hunt
|
This market will resolve to yes if any additional restrictions are introduced in Ireland before 00:01 UTC on 04 Jan 2022.
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 661.2299146287922, "YES": 272.02941017470886}
|
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 189.73665961010275, "YES": 63.2455532033676}
|
0
|
1641255691369
|
100
|
DonalHunt
|
1640875425276
|
0
|
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhuAwuKEbH5tzhiyAcUCS7sx8fd2vFnTn3aNTv4I6Q=s96-c
|
3
|
1715658707598
|
0
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11974305958935996
|
3Qodv8SlOn42NinZqVtM
|
{"NO": 96.52181290298263, "YES": 129.7243395498072}
|
0
|
will-aoc-challenge-chuck-schumer-in
|
410.24954634556195
|
{"NO": 196.75045365443796, "YES": 29.000000000000004}
|
Will AOC challenge Chuck Schumer in the 2022 Democratic Primary for Senator in New York?
|
60.00000000000003
|
1661425152004
|
uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2
|
cpmm-1
|
{"NO": 150, "YES": 50.00000000000001}
|
{"NO": 199.00000000000003, "YES": 29.000000000000004}
|
0
|
6.586956754143716
|
True
|
play
|
NO
|
public
|
1640884946652
|
Mosiah
|
BINARY
|
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
|
0
|
{"NO": 399.43582888593426, "YES": 147.3219519167309}
|
{"creatorFee": 0.2756604501929202, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
|
{"NO": 189.73665961010275, "YES": 63.2455532033676}
|
0
|
1661425152004
|
100
|
Mosiah
|
1661418935393
|
0
|
10
|
1650313787601
|
0
|
1
|
11
|
1661418935175
|
1661387305035
|
0.09191211821311898
|
Subsets and Splits
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