id
stringlengths 9
20
| slug
stringlengths 4
54
| question
stringlengths 1
120
| firstGroup
float64 | createdTime
int64 1,715B
1,752B
| closeTime
int64 1,717B
1,752B
| resolvedTime
int64 1,736B
1,752B
| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | resolutionProbability
float64 0
1
| volume
float64 0
6.93M
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rq9MwMQeprzqTdpo5QIq
|
will-the-us-be-at-full-employment-i
|
Will the U.S. be at full employment in December 2024?
| null | 1,714,932,968,606
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,743,507,996,316
|
YES
| 0.45
| 230.430081
|
BT2iaftEibm6tZBB3tLT
|
will-one-of-the-characters-in-amazi
|
Will one of the characters in amazing digital circus get abstracted until the end of 2024?
| null | 1,714,932,199,166
| 1,735,700,340,000
| 1,735,933,114,275
|
NO
| 0.269769
| 65
|
vpOCmietazhCEIQn6Ozb
|
will-there-be-a-tornado-reported-an-afed291c4e5a
|
Will there be a Tornado reported anywhere in the world on March 14, 2025?
| null | 1,714,931,091,527
| 1,742,011,140,000
| 1,743,008,888,737
|
YES
| 0.805039
| 672.200078
|
XYzUgUimeMKzgqQ62O7K
|
will-dan-make-a-fully-paywalled-epi
|
WILL DAN MAKE A FULLY PAYWALLED EPISODE BEFORE 2025?
| null | 1,714,926,358,360
| 1,735,865,717,377
| 1,735,865,717,377
|
NO
| 0.323276
| 65
|
UvdUzpI4PRfhTxK9u6qm
|
will-the-grand-theft-auto-6-release
|
Will the Grand Theft Auto 6 release be delayed until April 1st 2026 or later?
| null | 1,714,921,277,994
| 1,746,468,483,114
| 1,746,468,483,114
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,016.707725
|
n4ieuCBqdUvXYofGJDh2
|
will-there-be-an-earthquake-of-at-l
|
Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2025? (May 5)
| null | 1,714,920,530,653
| 1,746,453,874,398
| 1,746,453,874,398
|
YES
| 0.991013
| 49,991.209513
|
PmXBSOAkO1ZGfbMGJSEv
|
will-bayern-munich-win-the-202425-c
|
Will Bayern Munich win the 2024/25 Champions League
| null | 1,714,918,280,198
| 1,745,435,409,663
| 1,745,435,409,663
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,201.887458
|
AdKj0fxXNkElhvYJJkeN
|
jj-watt-plays-for-the-nfl-again-by
|
J.J. Watt plays for the NFL again by end of next season?
| null | 1,714,915,734,875
| 1,738,110,836,919
| 1,738,110,836,919
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,147.243984
|
JzMjnxgIAL5wvtLUrsWg
|
will-chelsea-win-the-202425-premier
|
Will Chelsea win the 2024/25 Premier League?
| null | 1,714,913,471,670
| 1,745,520,930,904
| 1,745,520,930,904
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,925.193104
|
8TCcoAFVVIPkHrsWJCJV
|
will-barcelona-win-the-202425-la-li
|
Will Barcelona win the 2024/25 La Liga?
| null | 1,714,913,263,924
| 1,747,108,740,000
| 1,747,438,779,879
|
YES
| 0.99
| 19,309.957967
|
o3p9Qj75VivEyJ6FE4jJ
|
will-real-madrid-win-the-202425-la
|
Will Real Madrid win the 2024/25 La Liga?
| null | 1,714,913,203,081
| 1,747,367,940,000
| 1,747,438,770,911
|
NO
| 0.01
| 4,049.195213
|
MjU42RU2HcJgDNsA0v81
|
will-atletico-de-madrid-win-the-202-fb5664d34fcd
|
Will Atlético de Madrid win the 2024/25 La Liga?
| null | 1,714,913,180,441
| 1,747,108,740,000
| 1,747,438,874,608
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,563.187997
|
AK1sqGkoSNcPaX3PNmMI
|
will-real-sociedad-win-the-202425-l
|
Will Real Sociedad win the 2024/25 La Liga?
| null | 1,714,913,160,516
| 1,745,520,940,892
| 1,745,520,940,892
|
NO
| 0.01
| 899.293686
|
tqfWqaElRCdgQIDfhqmy
|
will-girona-win-the-202425-la-liga
|
Will Girona win the 2024/25 La Liga?
| null | 1,714,913,136,601
| 1,745,520,949,818
| 1,745,520,949,818
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,430.09594
|
aSAA71XlY5ukOOILGbdR
|
at-eoy-2024-will-i-still-think-that
|
At EOY 2024, will I still think that the internet connexion on high-speed trains in France is completely useless ?
| null | 1,714,912,614,483
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,736,983,555,775
|
YES
| 0.82199
| 117.401506
|
QyJXO55RWBrLBdc4vrSd
|
will-what-i-mean-by-alignment-is-in
|
Will "What I mean by "alignment is in large part ab..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,714,904,169,365
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,596,048
|
NO
| 0.096359
| 43.883292
|
gzmFogdRfFkmqAYV364f
|
will-dont-dismiss-simple-alignment
|
Will "Don't Dismiss Simple Alignment Approaches" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,714,888,195,262
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,604,348
|
NO
| 0.1
| 38.883292
|
YYaAecCHy67edFG0GjjS
|
will-jack-outperform-jill-in-2024
|
Will JACK outperform JILL in 2024?
| null | 1,714,886,892,104
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,775,357,009
|
NO
| 0.031709
| 479.000001
|
7O03hKa9cQzLkS60ilb0
|
will-cat-outperform-dog-in-2024
|
Will CAT outperform DOG in 2024?
| null | 1,714,886,858,835
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,775,380,521
|
YES
| 0.949893
| 337
|
F5I6QSkRRZtL4Blo6zxG
|
will-there-be-a-ussaudi-arabia-join
|
Will there be a US-Saudi Arabia joint defense bill in 2024?
| null | 1,714,885,736,811
| 1,735,804,740,000
| 1,735,805,472,578
|
NO
| 0.030786
| 498
|
9Ffji5qtVL2qY9rCRtfc
|
will-killing-socrates-make-the-top-98819b44b258
|
Will "Killing Socrates" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,714,872,509,776
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,083,635
|
NO
| 0.799084
| 1,278.521076
|
JGcsppSe4dCcgb0WrsRY
|
will-the-horse-that-wins-the-kentuc-545c1d6556c9
|
Will the horse that wins the Kentucky Derby 2025 have a three syllable or longer name?
| null | 1,714,864,388,269
| 1,746,566,455,053
| 1,746,566,455,053
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,345.843253
|
GnQpeXDltz1sr7j1uTKo
|
will-the-horse-that-wins-the-kentuc-79adf972032c
|
Will the horse that wins the Kentucky Derby 2025 have a two-word name?
| null | 1,714,864,312,202
| 1,746,895,700,160
| 1,746,895,700,160
|
NO
| 0.007777
| 2,044.985109
|
ig42ka6PgDEKh4ryDpND
|
will-drake-and-kendrick-settle-thei
|
Will Drake and Kendrick settle their beef and/or reconcile publicly before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,714,844,459,264
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,775,667,366
|
NO
| 0.020423
| 4,378.740297
|
vkO55YCpwSh8b9IoSO8B
|
will-the-us-federal-government-decl
|
Will the US federal government declare a public health emergency regarding the H5N1 avian influenza virus in 2024?
| null | 1,714,814,304,410
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,710,164,019
|
NO
| 0.014155
| 880.439571
|
DtzMRiTwz8cNpdvij8Dv
|
will-hamas-leadership-move-to-turke
|
Will Hamas leadership move to Turkey in 2024?
| null | 1,714,800,427,484
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,736,790,127,044
|
NO
| 0.074604
| 2,114.838027
|
tpft2Od6S2AB4SJGDVxy
|
will-hamas-leadership-be-expelled-f
|
Will Hamas leadership be expelled from Qatar in 2024?
| null | 1,714,800,374,697
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,736,224,151,386
|
NO
| 0.067289
| 1,032.478076
|
r8WEDRf5iQMRfEZe2jlc
|
will-destiny-be-featured-in-a-al-ja
|
Will Destiny be featured in a Al Jazeera segment before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,714,768,113,109
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,832,386,018
|
NO
| 0.156943
| 177
|
DJ0rLHJOzu7kVIW7KZHe
|
will-destiny-be-featured-in-a-msnbc
|
Will Destiny be featured in a MSNBC segment before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,714,768,077,121
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,832,379,833
|
NO
| 0.11273
| 299.399469
|
UMoMiiVKdVLyOwLk38C5
|
will-kerbal-space-program-2-officia
|
Will Kerbal Space Program 2 officially stop development in 2024?
| null | 1,714,758,698,697
| 1,735,689,540,000
| 1,739,599,122,377
|
NO
| 0.808872
| 283.759818
|
GtvRHgf3Ua6K61fMNLk9
|
will-anyone-be-successfully-sued-in
|
Will anyone be successfully sued in Texas for having an abortion in another state before 2025?
| null | 1,714,751,103,836
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,740,376,607
|
NO
| 0.01
| 938.493425
|
9loLEG9bMGV3Nt6Jy2f9
|
will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-make-th-9ce8620dc09c
|
Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the Super Bowl in 2025?
| null | 1,714,742,439,947
| 1,736,575,140,000
| 1,737,946,808,575
|
YES
| 0.363885
| 1,615.980074
|
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