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values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
d4qpeznlow
|
daily-coinflip-dlhynlse9u
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,728,713,789,762
| 1,728,878,340,000
| 1,728,879,308,171
|
NO
| 0.5
| 13,216.37651
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
k183SnaVSA0gOaJknmof
|
over-45-publicly-recorded-immolatio
|
Over 4.5 publicly recorded immolations in the United States before EoD November 5th.
| null | 1,713,585,311,670
| 1,730,959,140,000
| 1,731,682,639,039
|
YES
| 0.233671
| 226.108572
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
RLjSOEEFyVGak8wHPHpC
|
will-hage-geingob-be-president-of-n
|
Will Hage Geingob be president of Namibia at the end of 2024?
| null | 1,673,203,640,783
| 1,732,886,998,490
| 1,732,886,998,490
|
NO
| 0.128028
| 327.281242
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
eZlWpps8rfw3Sq8BMUoe
|
will-elon-be-revealed-to-be-funding
|
Will Elon be revealed to be funding some of the larger anon/troll accounts on X during election season?
| null | 1,706,426,326,570
| 1,730,926,568,098
| 1,730,926,568,098
|
NO
| 0.044632
| 1,569.601549
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
i3DlctEXxnMxK4uPSChp
|
will-bryan-caplan-be-satisfied-with
|
Will Bryan Caplan be satisfied with the state of the George Mason Just Societies situation on Dec 1st 2024?
| null | 1,712,017,996,329
| 1,733,126,340,000
| 1,733,153,890,657
|
NO
| 0.316296
| 60
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
0nlYTzXipsZMfMqq5U4D
|
will-there-be-51-or-more-us-states
|
Will there be 51 or more U.S. states by the 2024 Presidential Election?
| null | 1,662,095,431,063
| 1,730,879,940,000
| 1,730,906,788,207
|
NO
| 0.010396
| 5,866.372426
|
Politics
|
Government Structure
|
6i7v7PcXGKp7LonbsKNs
|
will-saudi-arabia-king-salman-live
|
Will Saudi Arabia king Salman live in the end of 2024?
| null | 1,716,183,946,694
| 1,735,682,340,000
| 1,735,682,629,867
|
YES
| 0.981296
| 7,910.38188
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
9dSsqAU0qh
|
will-bitcoin-be-higher-than-75000-u
|
Will Bitcoin be higher than $75,000 USD at the end of November 2024?
| null | 1,731,238,193,609
| 1,733,011,140,000
| 1,733,046,480,119
|
YES
| 0.99
| 928.059526
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
fpMBqkzve1Ht6fbQGdlL
|
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-85755b10e865
|
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Ohio?
| null | 1,690,200,981,036
| 1,730,950,514,159
| 1,730,950,514,159
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,514.375765
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
9h89E9gNL2
|
bitcoin-above-70k-on-nov-6
|
Bitcoin above 70K on Nov 6?
| null | 1,730,251,836,370
| 1,730,880,577,428
| 1,730,880,577,428
|
YES
| 0.945556
| 8,230.359426
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
x5dpidirk7
|
will-california-voters-pass-the-dru
|
Will California voters pass Proposition 36 — Drug and Theft Crime Penalties and Treatment-Mandated Felonies Initiative?
| null | 1,718,592,890,347
| 1,730,966,340,000
| 1,731,861,778,444
|
YES
| 0.989327
| 10,038.52374
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
TNq46o4TeqK96Q5et4So
|
will-the-amount-of-hate-crimes-in-t
|
Will the amount of hate crimes in the U.S. go up in 2023?
| null | 1,698,808,796,328
| 1,727,145,771,632
| 1,727,145,771,632
|
YES
| 0.96
| 3,410.193307
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
fROcrXsy1QDTvpz6Ll4l
|
will-global-total-co2-emissions-be
|
Will global total CO2 emissions be below 40 billion tons in 2023 as estimated by Our World in Data?
| null | 1,671,465,302,207
| 1,732,340,410,576
| 1,732,340,410,576
|
NO
| 0.009935
| 10,640.907591
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
etnj6gvyo2
|
will-there-be-another-serious-assas-2p8np9t2iy
|
Will there be another serious assassination attempt against Trump?
| null | 1,726,435,284,876
| 1,730,847,540,000
| 1,730,849,866,935
|
NO
| 0.019906
| 178,437.959027
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
vhLAue2Uh3WllvUDhWW3
|
nfl-week-9-nov-3-2024-will-the-buff
|
NFL Week 9 (Nov 3 2024): Will the Buffalo Bills (home) beat the Miami Dolphins (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,172,328
| 1,730,829,600,000
| 1,731,291,738,783
|
YES
| 0.987429
| 1,043.561284
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
2q5ggndzfg
|
does-manifold-think-the-sweepstakes
|
Does Manifold think the sweepstakes are a good idea?
| null | 1,726,658,642,518
| 1,729,137,540,000
| 1,729,162,217,020
|
YES
| 0.95
| 4,372.755375
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
RIgPLdU6h9
|
will-deepseek-release-a-deepseek-v3
|
Will DeepSeek release a DeepSeek V3 model by the end of Q1 2025
| null | 1,733,923,231,727
| 1,735,191,610,387
| 1,735,191,610,387
|
YES
| 0.939162
| 2,929
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
40cOlfbyzDaxMvlwIXP0
|
will-chatgpt-get-the-monty-from-hel
|
Will ChatGPT get the "Monty from Hell" problem correct on Dec. 1, 2024?
| null | 1,701,562,887,145
| 1,733,118,024,214
| 1,733,118,024,214
|
YES
| 0.877847
| 1,389.977682
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
AuVRc8mAIU68fbiAj31m
|
will-my-coolfold-financial-portfoli
|
Will the CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform the S&P 500 over the next 6 months?
| null | 1,714,242,768,733
| 1,730,438,355,023
| 1,730,438,355,023
|
NO
| 0.018925
| 10,951.914799
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
fg5xxjg8bv
|
will-thuringias-constitutional-cour
|
Will Thuringia's constitutional court rule in favor of the urgent motion against the AfD?
| null | 1,727,442,722,766
| 1,727,473,275,761
| 1,727,473,275,761
|
YES
| 0.76
| 80
|
Politics
|
Government Structure
|
GI821GQbmm0iRFkTT6NQ
|
will-costcos-in-us-further-devalue-ab22f774fa11
|
Will Costcos in US further devalue their hot dog and soda combo before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,683,566,008,823
| 1,735,682,340,000
| 1,735,686,439,324
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,616.972643
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
q2QSpPOllh
|
will-i-be-demoted-to-platinum-this-uU56hnZqgS
|
Will I be demoted to Platinum this month?
| null | 1,730,906,133,250
| 1,733,177,982,330
| 1,733,177,982,330
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,241.566889
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
3Eu2EULeucc99X2lOxAZ
|
matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-f
|
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis points
| null | 1,704,256,491,993
| 1,726,776,732,646
| 1,726,776,732,646
|
YES
| 0.99
| 33,591.651047
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
ngM2g9vmyXALypDDj6lF
|
will-donald-trump-win-the-popular-v
|
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote but lose the EC vote, or lose the popular vote but win the EC vote?
| null | 1,710,404,092,429
| 1,731,083,507,298
| 1,731,083,507,298
|
NO
| 0.01
| 11,884.423373
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
woiVbQjfBSdAiFv7Jiyu
|
will-russia-unilaterally-reconstitu
|
Will Russia unilaterally reconstitute own government of Ukraine with self-appointed authorities in 2024?
| null | 1,717,099,130,833
| 1,735,682,340,000
| 1,735,687,537,697
|
NO
| 0.026909
| 5,905.011333
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
ioweevjcjw
|
will-the-east-coast-usa-port-strike
|
Will the east coast USA port strike result in substantial additional restrictions on automation?
| null | 1,727,783,828,566
| 1,728,213,634,360
| 1,728,213,634,360
|
NO
| 0.01
| 11,011.550061
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
pjzg0pzivv
|
will-jd-vance-be-a-guest-on-the-lex
|
Will JD Vance be a guest on the Lex Fridman Podcast before election day 2024?
| null | 1,725,400,540,238
| 1,730,805,847,813
| 1,730,805,847,813
|
NO
| 0.010001
| 10,400.499949
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
seq7dllacf
|
will-the-apprentice-the-donald-trum
|
Will "The Apprentice" (the Donald Trump biopic) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of >75%?
| null | 1,728,151,139,451
| 1,729,284,589,692
| 1,729,284,589,692
|
YES
| 0.99
| 996.515307
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
tAP8SuzI0u
|
will-bitcoin-hit-an-all-time-high-b
|
Will Bitcoin hit an all time high before US election winner is called?
| null | 1,730,282,921,505
| 1,730,872,861,632
| 1,730,872,861,632
|
YES
| 0.986197
| 1,165.467594
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
obewzSutKpgMo9y8SrWH
|
if-the-republican-nominee-wins-ariz
|
If the Republican nominee wins Arizona, will they win the presidency (2024)?
| null | 1,690,425,818,556
| 1,731,431,333,970
| 1,731,431,333,970
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,392.89144
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
c5SOzUZAhA
|
will-the-winnipeg-jets-have-34-poin--cash
|
Will the Winnipeg Jets have 34 points by end of November
| null | 1,729,872,650,571
| 1,732,409,671,577
| 1,732,578,465,421
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,280.06872
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
DuptY9J28bn5jqM4SWRI
|
will-adam-schiff-win-the-2024-senat
|
Will Adam Schiff win the 2024 senate seat in California?
| null | 1,680,635,170,825
| 1,733,253,275,103
| 1,733,253,275,103
|
YES
| 0.99
| 6,174.734452
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
5w2nutur4o
|
if-kamala-harris-debates-donald-tru
|
Will Kamala Harris win the debate against Trump? (based on polls)
| null | 1,720,309,280,670
| 1,726,862,976,462
| 1,726,862,976,462
|
YES
| 0.99
| 171,935.719882
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
T452czizPGGSbCUGxDnV
|
is-going-to-be-a-al-smith-dinner-wi
|
Will there be a Al Smith dinner with both presidential candidates attending and delivering stand-up routines in 2024?
| null | 1,690,077,781,583
| 1,729,471,331,416
| 1,729,471,331,416
|
NO
| 0.17
| 1,489.146596
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
WGfHCzM2m4Q2gv3PPRem
|
will-at-least-one-person-be-killed-8a035197f2a8
|
Will at least one person be killed violently within the Temple Mount/Al Aqsa compound during Ramadan 2024?
| null | 1,710,032,671,996
| 1,733,452,497,832
| 1,733,452,497,832
|
NO
| 0.070766
| 419.671862
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
q4L3LSydJzvOQRKDfFwm
|
will-bte-release-an-early-version-o
|
Will @BTE release an early version of his Manifold competitor by Christmas?
| null | 1,702,017,915,857
| 1,703,566,740,000
| 1,733,719,876,441
|
NO
| 0.084702
| 2,885.265053
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
93ub0uqehz
|
conservative-party-leadership-conte-t74g95grt5
|
Conservative Party leadership contest - will it go to the members?
| null | 1,722,249,032,379
| 1,728,860,340,000
| 1,728,896,480,020
|
YES
| 0.99
| 13,352.016593
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
a3vve5zfnw
|
will-brazil-unban-x-before-october
|
Will Brazil unban X before October?
| null | 1,725,356,729,438
| 1,728,028,568,699
| 1,728,028,568,699
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,398.577629
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
wt4d9y4dzo
|
will-donald-trump-use-the-fifty-cen
|
Will Donald Trump use the Fifty Cent song "Many Men" in any public appearance during the 2024 campaign?
| null | 1,721,009,830,813
| 1,730,846,294,330
| 1,730,846,294,330
|
NO
| 0.009894
| 118,368.663925
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
CfGVdb4Kc1i6uG3CJ4h1
|
will-tom-brady-endorse-trump
|
Will Tom Brady endorse Trump?
| null | 1,668,664,664,132
| 1,730,926,092,894
| 1,730,926,092,894
|
NO
| 0.01
| 14,254.3687
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
ghYFFOJMMN20wBqRIdSD
|
hn-hiring-trends-will-hiring-outnum-9dbca1d59983
|
HN Hiring Trends: Will "hiring" outnumber "looking" before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,697,371,158,617
| 1,735,656,831,849
| 1,735,656,831,849
|
NO
| 0.027207
| 6,596.874132
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
DdSwShjXEfuwuY4DeNMk
|
will-a-category-3-or-greater-hurric-f7bebc1ae65b
|
Will a Category 3 or greater hurricane make landfall in Florida during 2024?
| null | 1,704,828,755,718
| 1,727,465,039,221
| 1,727,465,039,221
|
YES
| 0.99
| 26,307.460017
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
zkfrgvp91o
|
-shortfuse-1-in-3-odds-2zcriigoqr
|
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds
| null | 1,727,043,663,967
| 1,727,058,063,542
| 1,727,058,145,609
|
NO
| null | 1,037.801319
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
p9sz11qvh5
|
will-apple-fitness-app-show-that-i
|
Will Apple Fitness app show that I walked more than 9500 steps today?
| null | 1,728,111,216,994
| 1,728,137,858,912
| 1,728,137,858,912
|
YES
| 0.99
| 894.987437
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
tsr1tqausf
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-xx6rheb05d
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 1 than it closed on Sept 30?
| null | 1,727,726,780,345
| 1,727,812,918,118
| 1,727,812,918,118
|
NO
| 0.02
| 1,838.257223
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
xQ5XItczkaGZEzSQ2UU0
|
will-dragons-dogma-2-win-any-awards
|
Will Dragon's Dogma 2 win any awards at the Game Awards 2024?
| null | 1,709,288,711,296
| 1,734,061,645,527
| 1,734,061,645,527
|
NO
| 0.010049
| 1,288.55416
|
Gaming
|
Video Games
|
8s0O6qsN0s
|
will-the-neurips-poster-printing-se
|
Will the NeurIPS poster printing service have our poster ready in time?
| null | 1,734,106,799,757
| 1,734,115,950,495
| 1,734,115,950,495
|
YES
| 0.99
| 9,661.635643
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
qtD9uG3hXeNW2XVXyPMR
|
will-any-2024-us-senate-election-be
|
Will any 2024 U.S. Senate election be won without the majority of the vote?
| null | 1,689,382,967,822
| 1,733,032,740,000
| 1,733,044,425,469
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,294.916164
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
9i6zaAWEubEy3lFi1ZWS
|
will-matt-gaetz-be-reelected-in-nov
|
Will Matt Gaetz be re-elected in November 2024?
| null | 1,697,133,998,706
| 1,730,782,740,000
| 1,732,943,725,989
|
YES
| 0.97225
| 1,378.07615
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
EoeZLDGwZIpr0YxqC5Dh
|
nfl-week-13-dec-1-2024-will-the-buf
|
NFL Week 13 (Dec 1 2024): Will the Buffalo Bills (home) beat the San Francisco 49ers (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,498,874
| 1,733,275,200,000
| 1,733,810,597,200
|
YES
| 0.99
| 894.987437
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
8sv8ylqf3t
|
will-propalestinian-college-protest
|
Will pro-Palestinian college protests begin again in earnest and will Kamala Harris’s youth support decline?
| null | 1,725,234,318,631
| 1,728,947,615,937
| 1,728,947,898,256
|
NO
| 0.06
| 310.258784
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
v8alcq880o
|
will-republicans-lead-in-the-final
|
Will Republicans lead in the final 538 House forecast?
| null | 1,729,296,007,453
| 1,730,696,340,000
| 1,730,821,664,037
|
NO
| 0.766257
| 1,574.926875
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
qIuRdgtSdZ
|
will-bay-bridge-traffic-be-halted-f--cash
|
Will Bay Bridge traffic be halted for 2+ hours on Election Day?
| null | 1,730,834,643,263
| 1,730,912,025,433
| 1,730,933,184,657
|
NO
| 0.097334
| 52
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
pU4xeOHpftaMGFT17zfg
|
will-bitcoin-reach-8765432-before-t
|
Will Bitcoin reach $87654.32 before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,712,706,428,538
| 1,731,369,321,313
| 1,731,369,321,313
|
YES
| 0.9824
| 21,423.022169
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
VMzDKyTnlLBkir8CVLmV
|
will-trevor-bauer-start-a-game-in-t-8a4d8f1ff65b
|
Will Trevor Bauer start a game in the major leagues in the 2024 season?
| null | 1,696,312,218,411
| 1,734,042,660,982
| 1,734,042,660,982
|
NO
| 0.015721
| 7,190.541385
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
vq7h8szbw5
|
will-this-prediction-market-get-50
|
will this prediction market get 50 or more traders?
| null | 1,724,605,957,863
| 1,727,215,140,000
| 1,727,252,277,403
|
NO
| 0.01
| 3,447.39336
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
I9I2pSLRlI
|
will-my-slay-the-spire-run-defeat-t
|
Will my Slay the Spire run defeat the Corrupted Heart?
| null | 1,730,665,451,578
| 1,730,923,685,002
| 1,730,923,685,002
|
NO
| 0.207582
| 253
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
ixk5jxk0wu
|
will-the-amazing-digital-circus-epi-6xe29nuo84
|
Will The Amazing Digital Circus Episode 3 reach 100 million views by the end of October?
| null | 1,727,370,368,812
| 1,730,433,540,000
| 1,730,441,376,249
|
NO
| 0.011493
| 9,308.475987
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
fGWxeNMZnX7hFxc6GVRA
|
will-a-candidate-that-is-neither-ba
|
Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote?
| null | 1,673,633,672,996
| 1,735,508,167,828
| 1,735,508,167,828
|
NO
| 0.015942
| 12,244.745103
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
TX7pLyUUWbcpUljkUtH0
|
will-katya-lels-teeth-that-were-sto
|
Will Katya Lel's teeth that were stolen by aliens will be found in 2024
| null | 1,708,378,636,298
| 1,728,940,940,630
| 1,728,940,940,630
|
NO
| 0.38
| 15
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
nAlBKpcpYCsjW9OLLG6z
|
will-destiny-do-an-irl-stream-with
|
Will Destiny do an IRL stream with Aba during 2024?
| null | 1,705,315,857,731
| 1,730,870,831,821
| 1,730,870,831,821
|
YES
| 0.963082
| 11,450.0511
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
q4lc6Kxcp14YTyxHpBVJ
|
will-balatro-be-nominated-for-any-a
|
Will Balatro be nominated for any awards at the Game Awards 2024?
| null | 1,709,288,578,931
| 1,731,971,778,046
| 1,731,971,778,046
|
YES
| 0.989999
| 6,410
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
lI0iECKDqSC8LuFAW64p
|
will-all-of-new-england-vote-as-a-u
|
Will ALL of New England vote as a unified bloc in the 2024?
| null | 1,696,614,837,158
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,730,949,565,899
|
NO
| 0.024685
| 1,264.582731
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
8OdugR6hRO
|
are-these-two-supposed-pictures-of
|
Are these two supposed pictures of the United Healthcare CEO assassin actually different people?
| null | 1,733,452,110,700
| 1,735,360,056,732
| 1,735,360,056,732
|
NO
| 0.007962
| 56,511.975885
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
L2L5gssUzc
|
profitable-bitcoin-coinflip-5-ev
|
Profitable Bitcoin Coinflip 5 [EV+]
| null | 1,731,153,892,381
| 1,731,301,140,000
| 1,731,307,025,753
|
NO
| 0.49995
| 6
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
4ss19fez8v
|
will-pete-rose-be-inducted-into-the
|
Will Pete Rose be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,729,394,336,721
| 1,729,440,702,246
| 1,729,440,702,246
|
NO
| 0.02
| 565
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
qndq34ieh6
|
trump-leads-5-or-more-swing-states
|
Trump leads 5 or more swing states in polls on Election day? (President Election)
| null | 1,729,141,257,194
| 1,730,842,345,561
| 1,730,842,345,561
|
YES
| 0.749178
| 401
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
fDlYte4sIfyatPnCUjON
|
will-shekel-vs-dollar-reach-40-in-2
|
Will Shekel vs Dollar reach 4.0 in 2024?
| null | 1,708,628,645,054
| 1,735,682,340,000
| 1,735,683,276,532
|
NO
| 0.051596
| 5,609.108691
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
OWRmX9Q0pIj7ziPMJsY0
|
nfl-week-12-nov-24-2024-will-the-ne
|
NFL Week 12 (Nov 24 2024): Will the New York Giants (home) beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,426,991
| 1,732,581,889,467
| 1,732,581,889,467
|
NO
| 0.01
| 895.310499
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
Rfr34B7xtudnufU50rts
|
will-either-joe-biden-or-donald-tru-35b07ca5429c
|
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump die before the 2024 Presidential election?
| null | 1,696,962,811,139
| 1,730,800,874,965
| 1,730,800,874,965
|
NO
| 0.014205
| 142,782.093947
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
v1tGPyNiqrpJKSGEWbdG
|
was-amelia-earhearts-plane-just-dis
|
Was Amelia Earheart's plane just discovered in the Pacific?
| null | 1,706,562,165,199
| 1,732,518,477,277
| 1,732,518,477,277
|
NO
| 0.09398
| 8,759.015548
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
dgAwNqeOgcdOxIz93xYm
|
will-prince-william-and-kate-middle
|
Will Prince William and Kate Middleton divorce before Halloween 2024?
| null | 1,710,268,162,448
| 1,730,429,228,445
| 1,730,429,228,445
|
NO
| 0.010006
| 8,896.167408
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
7bgfqhbrzy
|
will-i-loose-power-again-do-to-this
|
Will I loose power again do to this other hurricane potentially forming right after Helen (Greenville, SC)?
| null | 1,727,723,107,615
| 1,729,095,924,885
| 1,729,095,924,885
|
NO
| 0.1
| 2,100
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
Q4C8r3fPL9TwQptr8bRB
|
will-trump-say-ai-is-a-problem-duri
|
Will Trump say AI is a problem during a presidential debate?
| null | 1,705,287,634,698
| 1,731,695,076,568
| 1,731,695,076,568
|
NO
| 0.029697
| 13,338.843351
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
h9XBkQzxDbbpmbWf096X
|
will-there-be-protests-in-egypt-aga
|
Will there be protests in Egypt against Abdel Fattah El-Sisi's government in 2024?
| null | 1,707,308,541,331
| 1,734,483,092,154
| 1,734,483,092,154
|
YES
| 0.077051
| 797.557996
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
rl9bg6s0h1
|
weekly-tug-of-war-eep30o08pw
|
Weekly Tug of War
| null | 1,729,090,606,130
| 1,729,400,340,000
| 1,729,432,958,670
|
YES
| 0.95
| 385
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
ZzN2O80q8A
|
will-the-daily-coinflip-on-tuesday
|
Will the Daily Coinflip on Tuesday 5th correspond to the result of the 2024 USA election? (Head-Harris or Tails-Trump)
| null | 1,730,631,290,750
| 1,730,964,217,814
| 1,730,964,217,814
|
YES
| 0.945094
| 6,195.216905
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
YqlD5Wdhh9Z9wVIqV87i
|
will-rashee-rice-play-in-at-least-9
|
Will Rashee Rice play in at least 9 games this season?
| null | 1,712,001,711,420
| 1,732,910,898,556
| 1,732,910,898,556
|
NO
| 0.01
| 27,588.654425
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
svEg1wLfMMFMHaZLvdgD
|
will-the-candidate-who-wins-nebrask
|
Will the candidate who wins Nebraska's second Congressional district win the 2024 POTUS election?
| null | 1,690,287,478,114
| 1,730,879,022,436
| 1,730,879,022,436
|
NO
| 0.05252
| 646.36193
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
sQWNEnG9R7P8sSMJRAXh
|
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-21512a78f5f2
|
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Virginia?
| null | 1,690,201,669,120
| 1,730,951,463,429
| 1,730,951,463,429
|
NO
| 0.010014
| 1,119.518271
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
10fw8na1kp
|
will-a-theatergoer-require-hospital
|
Will a theater-goer require hospitalization or medical care as a result of watching Alien: Romulus?
| null | 1,723,657,337,060
| 1,727,047,550,973
| 1,727,047,550,973
|
NO
| 0.01
| 820.172233
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
QdEHOBdqQqiejrgIAFvj
|
will-an-llm-be-integrated-into-a-ma
|
Will an LLM be integrated into a major smart assistant (i.e., Google, Siri, Alexa, Bixby) before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,702,980,283,213
| 1,735,649,940,000
| 1,735,660,358,884
|
YES
| 0.925689
| 496.880834
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
403qm3lmib
|
will-joker-folie-a-deux-have-a-high
|
Will "Joker: Folie à Deux" have a higher Rotten Tomatoes audience score than "The LEGO Batman Movie"? (>80%)
| null | 1,727,904,778,063
| 1,728,716,340,000
| 1,728,748,357,840
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,079.612064
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
YlazKIbzJWNzCExjKuk3
|
will-trump-win-either-35-of-the-his
|
Will Trump win either 35% of the Hispanic/Latino vote or 15% of the black vote in 2024?
| null | 1,705,720,604,302
| 1,730,907,722,239
| 1,730,907,722,239
|
YES
| 0.890257
| 1,498.864575
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
3Xv3G1DtLTBvzYe6NN1L
|
will-ai-be-a-time-person-of-the-yea-dd9e7fd2782d
|
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2024?
| null | 1,694,285,419,451
| 1,733,115,540,000
| 1,734,917,407,764
|
NO
| 0.114558
| 1,413.770046
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
ubudklg9qv
|
will-ohnepixels-team-drillas-make-i
|
Will ohnePixel's team DRILLAS make it to the Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024 Main Event?
| null | 1,725,353,453,784
| 1,731,495,809,548
| 1,731,495,809,548
|
NO
| 0.01
| 920.442486
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
Viz4fjOIiFatLq0m8WEx
|
20240906-will-amzn-close-above-217
|
2024-09-06: Will AMZN close above $217?
| null | 1,717,529,926,384
| 1,725,681,540,000
| 1,727,804,230,002
|
NO
| 0.01
| 899.860139
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
1mfow9xsin
|
-shortfuse-2-in-5-odds-iarittw727
|
🧨 Short-fuse 2 in 5 odds
| null | 1,726,985,720,040
| 1,727,000,119,638
| 1,727,000,202,038
|
NO
| null | 160
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
h6yponj0ko
|
will-manifold-think-that-sweeps-cas
|
Will Manifold users think that sweepstakes markets are real money markets?
| null | 1,726,533,324,846
| 1,729,558,055,785
| 1,729,558,055,785
|
YES
| 0.95
| 9,184.862676
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
CSRZANUpUg
|
daily-coinflip-Ih66zIEshh
|
Daily coinflip 🔧
| null | 1,732,085,805,436
| 1,732,251,540,000
| 1,732,294,474,366
|
NO
| 0.5
| 3,167.999002
|
Gaming
|
Gaming Culture
|
ms30gHCwcuvanZhf1qMY
|
will-belarus-openly-enter-the-russo
|
Will Belarus openly enter the Russo-Ukrainian war?
| null | 1,691,152,320,949
| 1,735,673,385,222
| 1,735,673,385,222
|
NO
| 0.081478
| 12,460.821686
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
ppQ8AQny8S
|
will-adam-finish-incrimination-by-t
|
Will Adam finish incrimination by tonight?
| null | 1,732,320,597,764
| 1,732,377,560,486
| 1,732,377,560,486
|
NO
| 0.525624
| 40
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
tPdjseGBw868qBobF6Cx
|
will-gpt-be-said-by-anyone-in-a-pre
|
Will "GPT" be said by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024?
| null | 1,711,584,253,127
| 1,730,433,540,000
| 1,730,746,165,948
|
NO
| 0.010051
| 126,024.892154
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
QJslgIQGPJx3xpZjJRc2
|
will-the-value-of-bitcoin-pass-100k
|
Will the value of Bitcoin pass 100k USD by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,642,047,822,269
| 1,733,519,720,974
| 1,733,519,720,974
|
YES
| 0.99
| 48,662.686734
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
1ocB06kwCL8Mg5tr7v7s
|
will-september-2024-be-the-hottest-6d585fc6ed85
|
NOAA - Will September 2024 be the hottest September on record? (Global)
| null | 1,715,703,245,392
| 1,729,792,500,620
| 1,729,792,500,620
|
NO
| 0.01
| 14,282.07451
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
X6oCL4XPG8FzhTeKFqh8
|
will-manifold-markets-stop-being-we
|
Will Manifold Markets stop being weird about Jimmy Carter before 2025?
| null | 1,702,666,582,950
| 1,735,517,122,983
| 1,735,517,122,983
|
NO
| 0.292758
| 1,075.361001
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
ar1a9yerlz
|
will-a-bug-be-discovered-in-538s-20
|
Will a bug be discovered in 538's 2024 presidential forecast that affects it by at least 3% by election day?
| null | 1,720,820,790,652
| 1,730,966,340,000
| 1,731,002,971,657
|
NO
| 0.083247
| 4,858.48326
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
onH9hPVCIC2EPXvuCRIa
|
will-trump-win-at-least-thirty-stat
|
Will Trump win at least thirty states?
| null | 1,682,814,652,644
| 1,731,201,781,030
| 1,731,201,781,030
|
YES
| 0.910547
| 3,571.394722
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
zloydwuqsd
|
will-bitcoin-reach-70000-in-october
|
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October 2024?
| null | 1,728,188,705,109
| 1,730,158,001,820
| 1,730,158,001,820
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,510.204123
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
pgRlI5IZIL
|
will-i-restrict-my-foodbuying-behav
|
Will I restrict my food-buying behaviour in line with the rules of this market until the end of the year?
| null | 1,730,127,258,043
| 1,735,684,785,173
| 1,735,684,785,173
|
YES
| 0.952104
| 4,085
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
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