Daily Papers

LLM agents struggle with regulatory audit replay: when asked to reproduce a flagged transaction decision with identical inputs, many deployments fail to return consistent results. We introduce the Determinism-Faithfulness Assurance Harness (DFAH), a framework for measuring trajectory determinism, decision determinism, and evidence-conditioned faithfulness in tool-using agents deployed in financial services. Across 4,700+ agentic runs (7 models, 4 providers, 3 financial benchmarks with 50 cases each at T=0.0), we find that decision determinism and task accuracy are not detectably correlated (r = -0.11, 95% CI [-0.49, 0.31], p = 0.63, n = 21 configurations): models can be deterministic without being accurate, and accurate without being deterministic. Because neither metric predicts the other in our sample, both must be measured independently, which is precisely what DFAH provides. Small models (7-20B) achieve near-perfect determinism through rigid pattern matching at the cost of accuracy (20-42%), while frontier models show moderate determinism (50-96%) with variable accuracy. No model achieves both perfect determinism and high accuracy, supporting DFAH's multi-dimensional measurement approach. We provide three financial benchmarks (compliance triage, portfolio constraints, and DataOps exceptions; 50 cases each) together with an open-source stress-test harness. Across these benchmarks and DFAH evaluation settings, Tier 1 models with schema-first architectures achieved determinism levels consistent with audit replay requirements.

Portfolio Selection is an important real-world financial task and has attracted extensive attention in artificial intelligence communities. This task, however, has two main difficulties: (i) the non-stationary price series and complex asset correlations make the learning of feature representation very hard; (ii) the practicality principle in financial markets requires controlling both transaction and risk costs. Most existing methods adopt handcraft features and/or consider no constraints for the costs, which may make them perform unsatisfactorily and fail to control both costs in practice. In this paper, we propose a cost-sensitive portfolio selection method with deep reinforcement learning. Specifically, a novel two-stream portfolio policy network is devised to extract both price series patterns and asset correlations, while a new cost-sensitive reward function is developed to maximize the accumulated return and constrain both costs via reinforcement learning. We theoretically analyze the near-optimality of the proposed reward, which shows that the growth rate of the policy regarding this reward function can approach the theoretical optimum. We also empirically evaluate the proposed method on real-world datasets. Promising results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method in terms of profitability, cost-sensitivity and representation abilities.

Traditional approaches to portfolio optimization, often rooted in Modern Portfolio Theory and solved via quadratic programming or evolutionary algorithms, struggle with scalability or flexibility, especially in scenarios involving complex constraints, large datasets and/or multiple conflicting objectives. To address these challenges, we introduce a benchmark framework for multi-objective portfolio optimization (MPO) using gradient descent with automatic differentiation. Our method supports any optimization objective, such as minimizing risk measures (e.g., CVaR) or maximizing Sharpe ratio, along with realistic constraints, such as tracking error limits, UCITS regulations, or asset group restrictions. We have evaluated our framework across six experimental scenarios, from single-objective setups to complex multi-objective cases, and have compared its performance against standard solvers like CVXPY and SKFOLIO. Our results show that our method achieves competitive performance while offering enhanced flexibility for modeling multiple objectives and constraints. We aim to provide a practical and extensible tool for researchers and practitioners exploring advanced portfolio optimization problems in real-world conditions.

This paper presents a dynamic cryptocurrency portfolio optimization strategy that integrates technical indicators and sentiment analysis to enhance investment decision-making. The proposed method employs the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to capture market momentum, while sentiment scores are extracted from news articles using the VADER (Valence Aware Dictionary and sEntiment Reasoner) model, with compound scores quantifying overall market tone. The large language model Google Gemini is used to further verify the sentiment scores predicted by VADER and give investment decisions. These technical indicator and sentiment signals are incorporated into the expected return estimates before applying mean-variance optimization with constraints on asset weights. The strategy is evaluated through a rolling-window backtest over cryptocurrency market data, with Bitcoin (BTC) and an equal-weighted portfolio of selected cryptocurrencies serving as benchmarks. Experimental results show that the proposed approach achieves a cumulative return of 38.72, substantially exceeding Bitcoin's 8.85 and the equal-weighted portfolio's 21.65 over the same period, and delivers a higher Sharpe ratio (1.1093 vs. 0.8853 and 1.0194, respectively). However, the strategy exhibits a larger maximum drawdown (-18.52%) compared to Bitcoin (-4.48%) and the equal-weighted portfolio (-11.02%), indicating higher short-term downside risk. These results highlight the potential of combining sentiment and technical signals to improve cryptocurrency portfolio performance, while also emphasizing the need to address risk exposure in volatile markets.

This research paper delves into the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) in asset-class agnostic portfolio optimization, integrating industry-grade methodologies with quantitative finance. At the heart of this integration is our robust framework that not only merges advanced DRL algorithms with modern computational techniques but also emphasizes stringent statistical analysis, software engineering and regulatory compliance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study integrating financial Reinforcement Learning with sim-to-real methodologies from robotics and mathematical physics, thus enriching our frameworks and arguments with this unique perspective. Our research culminates with the introduction of AlphaOptimizerNet, a proprietary Reinforcement Learning agent (and corresponding library). Developed from a synthesis of state-of-the-art (SOTA) literature and our unique interdisciplinary methodology, AlphaOptimizerNet demonstrates encouraging risk-return optimization across various asset classes with realistic constraints. These preliminary results underscore the practical efficacy of our frameworks. As the finance sector increasingly gravitates towards advanced algorithmic solutions, our study bridges theoretical advancements with real-world applicability, offering a template for ensuring safety and robust standards in this technologically driven future.

We present a framework for hedging a portfolio of derivatives in the presence of market frictions such as transaction costs, market impact, liquidity constraints or risk limits using modern deep reinforcement machine learning methods. We discuss how standard reinforcement learning methods can be applied to non-linear reward structures, i.e. in our case convex risk measures. As a general contribution to the use of deep learning for stochastic processes, we also show that the set of constrained trading strategies used by our algorithm is large enough to ε-approximate any optimal solution. Our algorithm can be implemented efficiently even in high-dimensional situations using modern machine learning tools. Its structure does not depend on specific market dynamics, and generalizes across hedging instruments including the use of liquid derivatives. Its computational performance is largely invariant in the size of the portfolio as it depends mainly on the number of hedging instruments available. We illustrate our approach by showing the effect on hedging under transaction costs in a synthetic market driven by the Heston model, where we outperform the standard "complete market" solution.

Agentic systems increasingly solve complex user requests by executing orchestrated workflows, where subtasks are assigned to specialized models or tools and coordinated according to their dependencies. While recent work improves agent efficiency by optimizing the performance--cost--latency frontier, real deployments often impose concrete requirements: a workflow must be completed within a specified budget and before a specified deadline. This shifts the goal from average efficiency optimization to maximizing the probability that the entire workflow completes successfully under explicit budget and deadline constraints. We study constraint-driven online resource allocation for agentic workflows. Given a dependency-structured workflow and estimates of success rates and generation lengths for each subtask--model pair, the executor allocates models and parallel samples across simultaneously executable subtasks while managing the remaining budget and time. We formulate this setting as a finite-horizon stochastic online allocation problem and propose Monte Carlo Portfolio Planning (MCPP), a lightweight closed-loop planner that directly estimates constrained completion probability through simulated workflow executions and replans after observed outcomes. Experiments on CodeFlow and ProofFlow demonstrate that MCPP consistently improves constrained completion probability over strong baselines across a wide range of budget--deadline constraints.

Designing an optimum portfolio for allocating suitable weights to its constituent assets so that the return and risk associated with the portfolio are optimized is a computationally hard problem. The seminal work of Markowitz that attempted to solve the problem by estimating the future returns of the stocks is found to perform sub-optimally on real-world stock market data. This is because the estimation task becomes extremely challenging due to the stochastic and volatile nature of stock prices. This work illustrates three approaches to portfolio design minimizing the risk, optimizing the risk, and assigning equal weights to the stocks of a portfolio. Thirteen critical sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India are first chosen. Three portfolios are designed following the above approaches choosing the top ten stocks from each sector based on their free-float market capitalization. The portfolios are designed using the historical prices of the stocks from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2022. The portfolios are evaluated on the stock price data from Jan 1, 2022, to Dec 31, 2022. The performances of the portfolios are compared, and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

Portfolio optimization is a challenging problem that has attracted considerable attention and effort from researchers. The optimization of stock portfolios is a particularly hard problem since the stock prices are volatile and estimation of their future volatilities and values, in most cases, is very difficult, if not impossible. This work uses three ratios, the Sharpe ratio, the Sortino ratio, and the Calmar ratio, for designing the mean-variance optimized portfolios for six important sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. Three portfolios are designed for each sector maximizing the ratios based on the historical prices of the ten most important stocks of each sector from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2020. The evaluation of the portfolios is done based on their cumulative returns over the test period from Jan 1, 2021, to Dec 31, 2021. The ratio that yields the maximum cumulative returns for both the training and the test periods for the majority of the sectors is identified. The sectors that exhibit the maximum cumulative returns for the same ratio are also identified. The results provide useful insights for investors in the stock market in making their investment decisions based on the current return and risks associated with the six sectors and their stocks.

Portfolio Management is the process of overseeing a group of investments, referred to as a portfolio, with the objective of achieving predetermined investment goals. Portfolio optimization is a key component that involves allocating the portfolio assets so as to maximize returns while minimizing risk taken. It is typically carried out by financial professionals who use a combination of quantitative techniques and investment expertise to make decisions about the portfolio allocation. Recent applications of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) have shown promising results when used to optimize portfolio allocation by training model-free agents on historical market data. Many of these methods compare their results against basic benchmarks or other state-of-the-art DRL agents but often fail to compare their performance against traditional methods used by financial professionals in practical settings. One of the most commonly used methods for this task is Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization (MVO), which uses historical time series information to estimate expected asset returns and covariances, which are then used to optimize for an investment objective. Our work is a thorough comparison between model-free DRL and MVO for optimal portfolio allocation. We detail the specifics of how to make DRL for portfolio optimization work in practice, also noting the adjustments needed for MVO. Backtest results demonstrate strong performance of the DRL agent across many metrics, including Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdowns, and absolute returns.

Portfolio optimization has been a broad and intense area of interest for quantitative and statistical finance researchers and financial analysts. It is a challenging task to design a portfolio of stocks to arrive at the optimized values of the return and risk. This paper presents an algorithmic approach for designing optimum risk and eigen portfolios for five thematic sectors of the NSE of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Optimum risk and eigen portfolios for each sector are designed based on ten critical stocks from the sector. An LSTM model is designed for predicting future stock prices. Seven months after the portfolios were formed, on Aug 3, 2021, the actual returns of the portfolios are compared with the LSTM-predicted returns. The predicted and the actual returns indicate a very high-level accuracy of the LSTM model.

Designing an optimum portfolio that allocates weights to its constituent stocks in a way that achieves the best trade-off between the return and the risk is a challenging research problem. The classical mean-variance theory of portfolio proposed by Markowitz is found to perform sub-optimally on the real-world stock market data since the error in estimation for the expected returns adversely affects the performance of the portfolio. This paper presents three approaches to portfolio design, viz, the minimum risk portfolio, the optimum risk portfolio, and the Eigen portfolio, for seven important sectors of the Indian stock market. The daily historical prices of the stocks are scraped from Yahoo Finance website from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Three portfolios are built for each of the seven sectors chosen for this study, and the portfolios are analyzed on the training data based on several metrics such as annualized return and risk, weights assigned to the constituent stocks, the correlation heatmaps, and the principal components of the Eigen portfolios. Finally, the optimum risk portfolios and the Eigen portfolios for all sectors are tested on their return over a period of a six-month period. The performances of the portfolios are compared and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

Portfolio risk assessment ordinarily relies on reliable estimates of cross-asset return covariances, which are difficult to obtain in short, high-dimensional panels. We show that firm-level distribution-valued characteristics can instead provide one-sided certificates of portfolio risk. Under maintained links from characteristics to systematic exposures and from exposures to returns, multi-firm Wasserstein-2 dispersion yields a sharp upper bound on systematic portfolio variance and a corresponding bound for standardized returns. A weighted pairwise relaxation produces an objective that is convex under a checkable condition and requires marginal volatility scales but no cross-asset return covariances. With zero firm-specific slack, the common-map scale changes the certified variance reduction but not the normalized allocation, which depends only on observed information geometry. In a 52-firm panel from 2018-2022, an allocation constructed from Qwen3-Embedding-8B news representations lies between the 0.69th and 1.33rd in-sample variance percentiles across four prespecified capped portfolio populations; equal risk weighting lies between the 21.1st and 28.6th percentiles. The lower in-sample variance ranking relative to equal risk also appears across the reported frozen language-model representations. The framework therefore distribution-valued firm information into a coherent risk bound and an implementable allocation rule constructed without cross-asset return covariances.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio of stocks with the identification of proper weights of allocation to achieve the optimized values of return and risk. We present optimized portfolios based on the seven sectors of the Indian economy. The past prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are designed on the selected seven sectors. An LSTM regression model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Five months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on June 1, 2021, the actual and predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns indicate the very high accuracy of the LSTM model.

The stock market offers a platform where people buy and sell shares of publicly listed companies. Generally, stock prices are quite volatile; hence predicting them is a daunting task. There is still much research going to develop more accuracy in stock price prediction. Portfolio construction refers to the allocation of different sector stocks optimally to achieve a maximum return by taking a minimum risk. A good portfolio can help investors earn maximum profit by taking a minimum risk. Beginning with Dow Jones Theory a lot of advancement has happened in the area of building efficient portfolios. In this project, we have tried to predict the future value of a few stocks from six important sectors of the Indian economy and also built a portfolio. As part of the project, our team has conducted a study of the performance of various Time series, machine learning, and deep learning models in stock price prediction on selected stocks from the chosen six important sectors of the economy. As part of building an efficient portfolio, we have studied multiple portfolio optimization theories beginning with the Modern Portfolio theory. We have built a minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio for all the six chosen sectors by using the daily stock prices over the past five years as training data and have also conducted back testing to check the performance of the portfolio. We look forward to continuing our study in the area of stock price prediction and asset allocation and consider this project as the first stepping stone.

Portfolio design and optimization have been always an area of research that has attracted a lot of attention from researchers from the finance domain. Designing an optimum portfolio is a complex task since it involves accurate forecasting of future stock returns and risks and making a suitable tradeoff between them. This paper proposes a systematic approach to designing portfolios using two algorithms, the critical line algorithm, and the hierarchical risk parity algorithm on eight sectors of the Indian stock market. While the portfolios are designed using the stock price data from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020, they are tested on the data from Jan 1, 2021, to Aug 26, 2021. The backtesting results of the portfolios indicate while the performance of the CLA algorithm is superior on the training data, the HRP algorithm has outperformed the CLA algorithm on the test data.

In this article, we consider the problem of a bank's loan portfolio in the context of liquidity risk, while allowing for the limited liability protection enjoyed by the bank. Accordingly, we construct a novel loan portfolio model with limited liability, while maintaining a threshold level of haircut in the portfolio. For the constructed three-time step loan portfolio, at the initial time, the bank raises capital via debt and equity, investing the same in several classes of loans, while at the final time, the bank either meets its liabilities or becomes insolvent. At the intermediate time step, a fraction of the deposits are withdrawn, resulting in liquidation of some of the bank's assets. The liquidated portfolio is designed with the goal of minimizing the liquidation cost. Our theoretical results show that model with the haircut constraint leads to lesser liquidity risk, as compared to the scenario of no haircut constraint being imposed. Finally, we present numerical results to illustrate the theoretical results which were obtained.

Stock price prediction is a challenging task and a lot of propositions exist in the literature in this area. Portfolio construction is a process of choosing a group of stocks and investing in them optimally to maximize the return while minimizing the risk. Since the time when Markowitz proposed the Modern Portfolio Theory, several advancements have happened in the area of building efficient portfolios. An investor can get the best benefit out of the stock market if the investor invests in an efficient portfolio and could take the buy or sell decision in advance, by estimating the future asset value of the portfolio with a high level of precision. In this project, we have built an efficient portfolio and to predict the future asset value by means of individual stock price prediction of the stocks in the portfolio. As part of building an efficient portfolio we have studied multiple portfolio optimization methods beginning with the Modern Portfolio theory. We have built the minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio for all the five chosen sectors by using past daily stock prices over the past five years as the training data, and have also conducted back testing to check the performance of the portfolio. A comparative study of minimum variance portfolio and optimal risk portfolio with equal weight portfolio is done by backtesting.

Portfolio optimization has been an area of research that has attracted a lot of attention from researchers and financial analysts. Designing an optimum portfolio is a complex task since it not only involves accurate forecasting of future stock returns and risks but also needs to optimize them. This paper presents a systematic approach to portfolio optimization using two approaches, the hierarchical risk parity algorithm and the Eigen portfolio on seven sectors of the Indian stock market. The portfolios are built following the two approaches to historical stock prices from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. The portfolio performances are evaluated on the test data from Jan 1, 2021, to Nov 1, 2021. The backtesting results of the portfolios indicate that the performance of the HRP portfolio is superior to that of its Eigen counterpart on both training and test data for the majority of the sectors studied.

Portfolio optimization has been an area that has attracted considerable attention from the financial research community. Designing a profitable portfolio is a challenging task involving precise forecasting of future stock returns and risks. This chapter presents a comparative study of three portfolio design approaches, the mean-variance portfolio (MVP), hierarchical risk parity (HRP)-based portfolio, and autoencoder-based portfolio. These three approaches to portfolio design are applied to the historical prices of stocks chosen from ten thematic sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The portfolios are designed using the stock price data from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021, and their performances are tested on the out-of-sample data from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022. Extensive results are analyzed on the performance of the portfolios. It is observed that the performance of the MVP portfolio is the best on the out-of-sample data for the risk-adjusted returns. However, the autoencoder portfolios outperformed their counterparts on annual returns.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio with weights allocated to the stocks in a way that optimizes its return and the risk. This paper presents a systematic approach towards building two types of portfolios, optimum risk, and eigen, for four critical economic sectors of India. The prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. Sector-wise portfolios are built based on their ten most significant stocks. An LSTM model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Six months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on Jul 1, 2021, the actual returns and the LSTM-predicted returns for the portfolios are computed. A comparison of the predicted and the actual returns indicate a high accuracy level of the LSTM model.

Portfolio management is an essential component of investment strategy that aims to maximize returns while minimizing risk. This paper explores several portfolio management strategies, including asset allocation, diversification, active management, and risk management, and their importance in optimizing portfolio performance. These strategies are examined individually and in combination to demonstrate how they can help investors maximize alpha and minimize beta. Asset allocation is the process of dividing a portfolio among different asset classes to achieve the desired level of risk and return. Diversification involves spreading investments across different securities and sectors to minimize the impact of individual security or sector-specific risks. Active management involves security selection and risk management techniques to generate excess returns while minimizing losses. Risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders and options strategies, aim to minimize losses in adverse market conditions. The importance of combining these strategies for optimizing portfolio performance is emphasized in this paper. The proper implementation of these strategies can help investors achieve their investment goals over the long-term, while minimizing exposure to risks. A call to action for investors to utilize portfolio management strategies to maximize alpha and minimize beta is also provided.

We adopt deep learning models to directly optimise the portfolio Sharpe ratio. The framework we present circumvents the requirements for forecasting expected returns and allows us to directly optimise portfolio weights by updating model parameters. Instead of selecting individual assets, we trade Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) of market indices to form a portfolio. Indices of different asset classes show robust correlations and trading them substantially reduces the spectrum of available assets to choose from. We compare our method with a wide range of algorithms with results showing that our model obtains the best performance over the testing period, from 2011 to the end of April 2020, including the financial instabilities of the first quarter of 2020. A sensitivity analysis is included to understand the relevance of input features and we further study the performance of our approach under different cost rates and different risk levels via volatility scaling.

LLMs have shown strong performance across diverse financial tasks, yet portfolio management (PM), a critical financial decision-making task, remains poorly benchmarked. Existing benchmarks exhibit two main gaps: they ignore cross-asset correlation structures, thereby failing to distinguish genuinely diversified portfolios from concentrated ones, and fail to evaluate the complete PM decision pipeline in real-world scenarios. We introduce PortBench, a benchmark spanning six heterogeneous asset classes over ten years. PortBench consists of two complementary layers: a static QA dataset of 6,269 correlation-based questions across seven task templates, and a dynamic five-stage allocation pipeline that mirrors the full PM decision cycle. To evaluate these layers, we introduce two dedicated metrics: a dual-layer correlation score that measures whether proposed portfolios exploit inter-class hedging and avoid intra-class concentration, and CEPS, a metric that quantifies how reasoning errors compound across pipeline stages. We further assess strategy robustness and investor alignment under three historical stress regimes and risk profiles. Evaluating ten frontier LLMs, we find that despite strong performance on static financial QA, 90\% of model-profile combinations fail to outperform a basic equal-weight allocation, and models that satisfy every procedural constraint still suffer catastrophic drawdowns under stress. Our source code is available at https://github.com/AgenticFinLab/portbench{this https URL}.

Instance-specific algorithm configuration and algorithm portfolios have been shown to offer significant improvements over single algorithm approaches in a variety of application domains. In the SAT and CSP domains algorithm portfolios have consistently dominated the main competitions in these fields for the past five years. For a portfolio approach to be effective there are two crucial conditions that must be met. First, there needs to be a collection of complementary solvers with which to make a portfolio. Second, there must be a collection of problem features that can accurately identify structural differences between instances. This paper focuses on the latter issue: feature representation, because, unlike SAT, not every problem has well-studied features. We employ the well-known SATzilla feature set, but compute alternative sets on different SAT encodings of CSPs. We show that regardless of what encoding is used to convert the instances, adequate structural information is maintained to differentiate between problem instances, and that this can be exploited to make an effective portfolio-based CSP solver.

In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing transfer learning techniques to address the financial portfolio optimization problem. We introduce a novel concept called "transfer risk", within the optimization framework of transfer learning. A series of numerical experiments are conducted from three categories: cross-continent transfer, cross-sector transfer, and cross-frequency transfer. In particular, 1. a strong correlation between the transfer risk and the overall performance of transfer learning methods is established, underscoring the significance of transfer risk as a viable indicator of "transferability"; 2. transfer risk is shown to provide a computationally efficient way to identify appropriate source tasks in transfer learning, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the transfer learning approach; 3. additionally, the numerical experiments offer valuable new insights for portfolio management across these different settings.

This paper proposes a formal framework for reverse stress testing geopolitical risk in corporate credit portfolios. A joint macro-financial scenario vector, augmented with an explicit geopolitical risk factor, is mapped into stressed probabilities of default and losses given default. These stresses are then propagated to portfolio tail losses through a latent factor structure and translated into a stressed CET1 ratio, jointly accounting for capital depletion and risk-weighted asset dynamics. Reverse stress testing is formulated as a constrained maximum likelihood problem over the scenario space. This yields a geopolitical point reverse stress test, or design point, defined as the most probable scenario that breaches a prescribed capital adequacy constraint under a reference distribution. The framework further characterises neighbourhoods and near optimal sets of reverse stress scenarios, allowing for sensitivity analysis and governance oriented interpretation. The approach is compatible with internal rating based models and supports implementation at the exposure or sector level.

Financial portfolio management is the process of constant redistribution of a fund into different financial products. This paper presents a financial-model-free Reinforcement Learning framework to provide a deep machine learning solution to the portfolio management problem. The framework consists of the Ensemble of Identical Independent Evaluators (EIIE) topology, a Portfolio-Vector Memory (PVM), an Online Stochastic Batch Learning (OSBL) scheme, and a fully exploiting and explicit reward function. This framework is realized in three instants in this work with a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a basic Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). They are, along with a number of recently reviewed or published portfolio-selection strategies, examined in three back-test experiments with a trading period of 30 minutes in a cryptocurrency market. Cryptocurrencies are electronic and decentralized alternatives to government-issued money, with Bitcoin as the best-known example of a cryptocurrency. All three instances of the framework monopolize the top three positions in all experiments, outdistancing other compared trading algorithms. Although with a high commission rate of 0.25% in the backtests, the framework is able to achieve at least 4-fold returns in 50 days.

We develop a portfolio allocation framework that leverages deep learning techniques to address challenges arising from high-dimensional, non-stationary, and low-signal-to-noise market information. Our approach includes a dynamic embedding method that reduces the non-stationary, high-dimensional state space into a lower-dimensional representation. We design a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that integrates generative autoencoders and online meta-learning to dynamically embed market information, enabling the RL agent to focus on the most impactful parts of the state space for portfolio allocation decisions. Empirical analysis based on the top 500 U.S. stocks demonstrates that our framework outperforms common portfolio benchmarks and the predict-then-optimize (PTO) approach using machine learning, particularly during periods of market stress. Traditional factor models do not fully explain this superior performance. The framework's ability to time volatility reduces its market exposure during turbulent times. Ablation studies confirm the robustness of this performance across various reinforcement learning algorithms. Additionally, the embedding and meta-learning techniques effectively manage the complexities of high-dimensional, noisy, and non-stationary financial data, enhancing both portfolio performance and risk management.

This paper concerns a continuous time mean-variance (MV) portfolio selection problem in a jump-diffusion financial model with no-shorting trading constraint. The problem is reduced to two subproblems: solving a stochastic linear-quadratic (LQ) control problem under control constraint, and finding a maximal point of a real function. Based on a two-dimensional fully coupled ordinary differential equation (ODE), we construct an explicit viscosity solution to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation of the constrained LQ problem. Together with the Meyer-Itô formula and a verification procedure, we obtain the optimal feedback controls of the constrained LQ problem and the original MV problem, which corrects the flawed results in some existing literatures. In addition, closed-form efficient portfolio and efficient frontier are derived. In the end, we present several examples where the two-dimensional ODE is decoupled.

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performances of three portfolio optimization approaches. Three approaches of portfolio optimization that are considered in this work are the mean-variance portfolio (MVP), hierarchical risk parity (HRP) portfolio, and reinforcement learning-based portfolio. The portfolios are trained and tested over several stock data and their performances are compared on their annual returns, annual risks, and Sharpe ratios. In the reinforcement learning-based portfolio design approach, the deep Q learning technique has been utilized. Due to the large number of possible states, the construction of the Q-table is done using a deep neural network. The historical prices of the 50 premier stocks from the Indian stock market, known as the NIFTY50 stocks, and several stocks from 10 important sectors of the Indian stock market are used to create the environment for training the agent.

This paper addresses the critical disconnect between prediction and decision quality in portfolio optimization by integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) with decision-focused learning. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that minimizing the prediction error alone leads to suboptimal portfolio decisions. We aim to exploit the representational power of LLMs for investment decisions. An attention mechanism processes asset relationships, temporal dependencies, and macro variables, which are then directly integrated into a portfolio optimization layer. This enables the model to capture complex market dynamics and align predictions with the decision objectives. Extensive experiments on S\&P100 and DOW30 datasets show that our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning models. In addition, gradient-based analyses show that our model prioritizes the assets most crucial to decision making, thus mitigating the effects of prediction errors on portfolio performance. These findings underscore the value of integrating decision objectives into predictions for more robust and context-aware portfolio management.

An important feature of many real world facility location problems are capacity limits on the facilities. We show here how capacity constraints make it harder to design strategy proof mechanisms for facility location, but counter-intuitively can improve the guarantees on how well we can approximate the optimal solution.

Artificial intelligence is transforming financial investment decision-making frameworks, with deep reinforcement learning demonstrating substantial potential in robo-advisory applications. This paper addresses the limitations of traditional portfolio optimization methods in dynamic asset weight adjustment through the development of a deep reinforcement learning-based dynamic optimization model grounded in practical trading processes. The research advances two key innovations: first, the introduction of a novel Sharpe ratio reward function engineered for Actor-Critic deep reinforcement learning algorithms, which ensures stable convergence during training while consistently achieving positive average Sharpe ratios; second, the development of an innovative comprehensive approach to portfolio optimization utilizing deep reinforcement learning, which significantly enhances model optimization capability through the integration of random sampling strategies during training with image-based deep neural network architectures for multi-dimensional financial time series data processing, average Sharpe ratio reward functions, and deep reinforcement learning algorithms. The empirical analysis validates the model using randomly selected constituent stocks from the CSI 300 Index, benchmarking against established financial econometric optimization models. Backtesting results demonstrate the model's efficacy in optimizing portfolio allocation and mitigating investment risk, yielding superior comprehensive performance metrics.

This paper investigates the problem of ensembling multiple strategies for sequential portfolios to outperform individual strategies in terms of long-term wealth. Due to the uncertainty of strategies' performances in the future market, which are often based on specific models and statistical assumptions, investors often mitigate risk and enhance robustness by combining multiple strategies, akin to common approaches in collective learning prediction. However, the absence of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework complicates decisions of combination due to the ambiguous objective. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, irrespective of market conditions, by establishing the investor's preference between decisions and then forming a clear objective. Through this framework, we propose a combinatorial strategy construction, free from statistical assumptions, for any scale of component strategies, even infinite, such that it meets the determined criterion. Finally, we test the proposed strategy along with its accelerated variant and some other multi-strategies. The numerical experiments show results in favor of the proposed strategies, albeit with small tradeoffs in their Sharpe ratios, in which their cumulative wealths eventually exceed those of the best component strategies while the accelerated strategy significantly improves performance.

We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric creditworthiness effects, while idiosyncratic risk remains Gaussian. Under a non-uniform exposure setting, we establish convergence in quadratic mean of the portfolio loss to a limit reflecting the distinct characteristics of the two loan segments. Numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate how value-at-risk is affected by portfolio granularity, default probabilities, factor loadings, and skewness. Our model accommodates differential sensitivity to systematic shocks and offers a tractable basis for further developments in credit risk modeling, including granularity adjustments, CDO pricing, and empirical analysis of green loan portfolios.

Predicting future stock prices and their movement patterns is a complex problem. Hence, building a portfolio of capital assets using the predicted prices to achieve the optimization between its return and risk is an even more difficult task. This work has carried out an analysis of the time series of the historical prices of the top five stocks from the nine different sectors of the Indian stock market from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are built for each of these sectors. For predicting future stock prices, a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) model is also designed and fine-tuned. After five months of the portfolio construction, the actual and the predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns of each portfolio are found to be high, indicating the high precision of the LSTM model.

We study the optimal portfolio selection problem under relative performance criteria in the market model with random coefficients from the perspective of many players game theory. We consider five random coefficients which consist of three market parameters which are used in the risky asset price modeling and two preference parameters which are related to risk attitude and impact of relative performance. We focus on two cases; either all agents have Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) risk preferences or all agents have Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) risk preferences for their investment optimization problem. For each case, we show that the forward Nash equilibrium and the mean field equilibrium exist for the n-agent game and the corresponding mean field stochastic optimal control problem, respectively. To extend the n-agent game to the continuum of players game, we introduce a measure dependent forward relative performance process and apply an optimization over controlled dynamics of McKean-Vlasov type. We conclude that our optimal portfolio formulas extend the corresponding results of the market model with constant coefficients.

It is crucial for large language models (LLMs) to follow instructions that involve multiple constraints. However, it is an unexplored area to enhance LLMs' ability to follow soft constraints. To bridge the gap, we initially design a pipeline to construct datasets with high-quality outputs automatically. Additionally, to fully utilize the positive and negative samples generated during the data construction process, we choose Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) as the training method. Furthermore, taking into account the difficulty of soft constraints indicated by the number of constraints, we design a curriculum learning training paradigm based on the constraint quantity. We experimentally evaluate the effectiveness of our methods in improving LLMs' soft constraint following ability and analyze the factors driving the improvements.The datasets and code are publicly available at https://github.com/Rainier-rq/FollowSoftConstraint.

Large language models can produce creative and diverse responses. However, to integrate them into current developer workflows, it is essential to constrain their outputs to follow specific formats or standards. In this work, we surveyed 51 experienced industry professionals to understand the range of scenarios and motivations driving the need for output constraints from a user-centered perspective. We identified 134 concrete use cases for constraints at two levels: low-level, which ensures the output adhere to a structured format and an appropriate length, and high-level, which requires the output to follow semantic and stylistic guidelines without hallucination. Critically, applying output constraints could not only streamline the currently repetitive process of developing, testing, and integrating LLM prompts for developers, but also enhance the user experience of LLM-powered features and applications. We conclude with a discussion on user preferences and needs towards articulating intended constraints for LLMs, alongside an initial design for a constraint prototyping tool.

Risk parity, also known as equal risk contribution, has recently gained increasing attention as a portfolio allocation method. However, solving portfolio weights must resort to numerical methods as the analytic solution is not available. This study improves two existing iterative methods: the cyclical coordinate descent (CCD) and Newton methods. We enhance the CCD method by simplifying the formulation using a correlation matrix and imposing an additional rescaling step. We also suggest an improved initial guess inspired by the CCD method for the Newton method. Numerical experiments show that the improved CCD method performs the best and is approximately three times faster than the original CCD method, saving more than 40% of the iterations.

This chapter presents a calendar rebalancing approach to portfolios of stocks in the Indian stock market. Ten important sectors of the Indian economy are first selected. For each of these sectors, the top ten stocks are identified based on their free-float market capitalization values. Using the ten stocks in each sector, a sector-specific portfolio is designed. In this study, the historical stock prices are used from January 4, 2021, to September 20, 2023 (NSE Website). The portfolios are designed based on the training data from January 4, 2021 to June 30, 2022. The performances of the portfolios are tested over the period from July 1, 2022, to September 20, 2023. The calendar rebalancing approach presented in the chapter is based on a yearly rebalancing method. However, the method presented is perfectly flexible and can be adapted for weekly or monthly rebalancing. The rebalanced portfolios for the ten sectors are analyzed in detail for their performances. The performance results are not only indicative of the relative performances of the sectors over the training (i.e., in-sample) data and test (out-of-sample) data, but they also reflect the overall effectiveness of the proposed portfolio rebalancing approach.

Regardless of the particular task we want them to perform in an environment, there are often shared safety constraints we want our agents to respect. For example, regardless of whether it is making a sandwich or clearing the table, a kitchen robot should not break a plate. Manually specifying such a constraint can be both time-consuming and error-prone. We show how to learn constraints from expert demonstrations of safe task completion by extending inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) techniques to the space of constraints. Intuitively, we learn constraints that forbid highly rewarding behavior that the expert could have taken but chose not to. Unfortunately, the constraint learning problem is rather ill-posed and typically leads to overly conservative constraints that forbid all behavior that the expert did not take. We counter this by leveraging diverse demonstrations that naturally occur in multi-task settings to learn a tighter set of constraints. We validate our method with simulation experiments on high-dimensional continuous control tasks.

Deep Generative Models (DGMs) have been shown to be powerful tools for generating tabular data, as they have been increasingly able to capture the complex distributions that characterize them. However, to generate realistic synthetic data, it is often not enough to have a good approximation of their distribution, as it also requires compliance with constraints that encode essential background knowledge on the problem at hand. In this paper, we address this limitation and show how DGMs for tabular data can be transformed into Constrained Deep Generative Models (C-DGMs), whose generated samples are guaranteed to be compliant with the given constraints. This is achieved by automatically parsing the constraints and transforming them into a Constraint Layer (CL) seamlessly integrated with the DGM. Our extensive experimental analysis with various DGMs and tasks reveals that standard DGMs often violate constraints, some exceeding 95% non-compliance, while their corresponding C-DGMs are never non-compliant. Then, we quantitatively demonstrate that, at training time, C-DGMs are able to exploit the background knowledge expressed by the constraints to outperform their standard counterparts with up to 6.5% improvement in utility and detection. Further, we show how our CL does not necessarily need to be integrated at training time, as it can be also used as a guardrail at inference time, still producing some improvements in the overall performance of the models. Finally, we show that our CL does not hinder the sample generation time of the models.

In this research paper, we investigate into a paper named "A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for the Financial Portfolio Management Problem" [arXiv:1706.10059]. It is a portfolio management problem which is solved by deep learning techniques. The original paper proposes a financial-model-free reinforcement learning framework, which consists of the Ensemble of Identical Independent Evaluators (EIIE) topology, a Portfolio-Vector Memory (PVM), an Online Stochastic Batch Learning (OSBL) scheme, and a fully exploiting and explicit reward function. Three different instants are used to realize this framework, namely a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a basic Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The performance is then examined by comparing to a number of recently reviewed or published portfolio-selection strategies. We have successfully replicated their implementations and evaluations. Besides, we further apply this framework in the stock market, instead of the cryptocurrency market that the original paper uses. The experiment in the cryptocurrency market is consistent with the original paper, which achieve superior returns. But it doesn't perform as well when applied in the stock market.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

Multi-armed bandit problems are the predominant theoretical model of exploration-exploitation tradeoffs in learning, and they have countless applications ranging from medical trials, to communication networks, to Web search and advertising. In many of these application domains the learner may be constrained by one or more supply (or budget) limits, in addition to the customary limitation on the time horizon. The literature lacks a general model encompassing these sorts of problems. We introduce such a model, called "bandits with knapsacks", that combines aspects of stochastic integer programming with online learning. A distinctive feature of our problem, in comparison to the existing regret-minimization literature, is that the optimal policy for a given latent distribution may significantly outperform the policy that plays the optimal fixed arm. Consequently, achieving sublinear regret in the bandits-with-knapsacks problem is significantly more challenging than in conventional bandit problems. We present two algorithms whose reward is close to the information-theoretic optimum: one is based on a novel "balanced exploration" paradigm, while the other is a primal-dual algorithm that uses multiplicative updates. Further, we prove that the regret achieved by both algorithms is optimal up to polylogarithmic factors. We illustrate the generality of the problem by presenting applications in a number of different domains including electronic commerce, routing, and scheduling. As one example of a concrete application, we consider the problem of dynamic posted pricing with limited supply and obtain the first algorithm whose regret, with respect to the optimal dynamic policy, is sublinear in the supply.

This chapter presents a comparative study of the three portfolio optimization methods, MVP, HRP, and HERC, on the Indian stock market, particularly focusing on the stocks chosen from 15 sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange of India. The top stocks of each cluster are identified based on their free-float market capitalization from the report of the NSE published on July 1, 2022 (NSE Website). For each sector, three portfolios are designed on stock prices from July 1, 2019, to June 30, 2022, following three portfolio optimization approaches. The portfolios are tested over the period from July 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023. For the evaluation of the performances of the portfolios, three metrics are used. These three metrics are cumulative returns, annual volatilities, and Sharpe ratios. For each sector, the portfolios that yield the highest cumulative return, the lowest volatility, and the maximum Sharpe Ratio over the training and the test periods are identified.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

This paper proposes a novel meta-learning approach to optimize a robust portfolio ensemble. The method uses a deep generative model to generate diverse and high-quality sub-portfolios combined to form the ensemble portfolio. The generative model consists of a convolutional layer, a stateful LSTM module, and a dense network. During training, the model takes a randomly sampled batch of Gaussian noise and outputs a population of solutions, which are then evaluated using the objective function of the problem. The weights of the model are updated using a gradient-based optimizer. The convolutional layer transforms the noise into a desired distribution in latent space, while the LSTM module adds dependence between generations. The dense network decodes the population of solutions. The proposed method balances maximizing the performance of the sub-portfolios with minimizing their maximum correlation, resulting in a robust ensemble portfolio against systematic shocks. The approach was effective in experiments where stochastic rewards were present. Moreover, the results (Fig. 1) demonstrated that the ensemble portfolio obtained by taking the average of the generated sub-portfolio weights was robust and generalized well. The proposed method can be applied to problems where diversity is desired among co-optimized solutions for a robust ensemble. The source-codes and the dataset are in the supplementary material.

In recent years, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been applied to real-world problems with increasing success. Such applications often require to put constraints on the agent's behavior. Existing algorithms for constrained RL (CRL) rely on gradient descent-ascent, but this approach comes with a caveat. While these algorithms are guaranteed to converge on average, they do not guarantee last-iterate convergence, i.e., the current policy of the agent may never converge to the optimal solution. In practice, it is often observed that the policy alternates between satisfying the constraints and maximizing the reward, rarely accomplishing both objectives simultaneously. Here, we address this problem by introducing Reinforcement Learning with Optimistic Ascent-Descent (ReLOAD), a principled CRL method with guaranteed last-iterate convergence. We demonstrate its empirical effectiveness on a wide variety of CRL problems including discrete MDPs and continuous control. In the process we establish a benchmark of challenging CRL problems.

Multi-constraint planning involves identifying, evaluating, and refining candidate plans while satisfying multiple, potentially conflicting constraints. Existing large language model (LLM) approaches face fundamental limitations in this domain. Pure reasoning paradigms, which rely on long natural language chains, are prone to inconsistency, error accumulation, and prohibitive cost as constraints compound. Conversely, LLMs combined with coding- or solver-based strategies lack flexibility: they often generate problem-specific code from scratch or depend on fixed solvers, failing to capture generalizable logic across diverse problems. To address these challenges, we introduce the Scalable COde Planning Engine (SCOPE), a framework that disentangles query-specific reasoning from generic code execution. By separating reasoning from execution, SCOPE produces solver functions that are consistent, deterministic, and reusable across queries while requiring only minimal changes to input parameters. SCOPE achieves state-of-the-art performance while lowering cost and latency. For example, with GPT-4o, it reaches 93.1% success on TravelPlanner, a 61.6% gain over the best baseline (CoT) while cutting inference cost by 1.4x and time by ~4.67x. Code is available at https://github.com/DerrickGXD/SCOPE.

This technical report presents EXAONE Forecast for Finance (EXAONE Finance), a financial time series (TS) foundation model (TSFM) tailored to financial forecasting. Recent TSFMs achieve strong zero-shot performance through large-scale pretraining. However, they are primarily developed for general-domain TS and largely rely on self-attention backbones whose computational cost grows quadratically with sequence length and variate count. Moreover, they assume fully observed inputs and are pretrained on corpora that fail to capture the unique dynamics of financial markets. These limitations hinder their applicability to finance, where long, many-channel, intermittently observed panels are common. To address these challenges, EXAONE Finance adopts an attention-free architecture, replacing self-attention with two simple yet effective linear-time operators: 1) a causal 1D convolution for temporal mixing and 2) a group-aware pooling multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for variate mixing. Furthermore, a masked context augmentation exposes the model to contiguous missing spans during training, improving robustness to the missingness pervasive in financial markets. EXAONE Finance is pretrained on a large-scale financial corpus covering not only equities but also foreign exchange, commodities, crypto-assets, fixed income, and macroeconomic indicators. On FinVerse, a financial forecasting benchmark covering diverse asset classes, EXAONE Finance attains state-of-the-art performance, ranking first across all three evaluation tiers---point-forecast accuracy, cross-sectional asset ranking, and portfolio profitability.

Personalized financial advice requires consideration of user goals, constraints, risk tolerance, and jurisdiction. Prior LLM work has focused on support systems for investors and financial planners. Simultaneously, numerous recent studies examine broader personal finance tasks, including budgeting, debt management, retirement, and estate planning, through agentic pipelines that incur high maintenance costs, yielding less than 25% of their expected financial returns. In this study, we introduce a novel and reproducible framework that integrates relevant financial context with behavioral finance studies to construct supervision data for end-to-end advisors. Using this framework, we create a 19k sample reasoning dataset and conduct a comprehensive fine-tuning of the Qwen-3-8B model on the dataset. Through a held-out test split and a blind LLM-jury study, we demonstrate that through careful data curation and behavioral integration, our 8B model achieves performance comparable to significantly larger baselines (14-32B parameters) across factual accuracy, fluency, and personalization metrics while incurring 80% lower costs than the larger counterparts.

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

The CASH problem has been widely studied in the context of automated configurations of machine learning (ML) pipelines and various solvers and toolkits are available. However, CASH solvers do not directly handle black-box constraints such as fairness, robustness or other domain-specific custom constraints. We present our recent approach [Liu, et al., 2020] that leverages the ADMM optimization framework to decompose CASH into multiple small problems and demonstrate how ADMM facilitates incorporation of black-box constraints.

Personalized LLM systems have advanced rapidly, yet most operate in domains where user preferences are stable and ground truth is either absent or subjective. We argue that individual investor decision-making presents a uniquely challenging domain for LLM personalization - one that exposes fundamental limitations in current customization paradigms. Drawing on our system, built and deployed for AI-augmented portfolio management, we identify four axes along which individual investing exposes fundamental limitations in standard LLM customization: (1) behavioral memory complexity, where investor patterns are temporally evolving, self-contradictory, and financially consequential; (2) thesis consistency under drift, where maintaining coherent investment rationale over weeks or months strains stateless and session-bounded architectures; (3) style-signal tension, where the system must simultaneously respect personal investment philosophy and surface objective evidence that may contradict it; and (4) alignment without ground truth, where personalization quality cannot be evaluated against a fixed label set because outcomes are stochastic and delayed. We describe the architectural responses that emerged from building the system and propose open research directions for personalized NLP in high-stakes, temporally extended decision domains.

We study permissionless spot--perpetual basis trading in decentralized finance as a collateral control problem. The strategy holds spot inventory, hedges directional exposure with a short perpetual, and allocates capital between spot inventory and derivative margin under on-chain liquidity and execution frictions. The paper delivers three results. First, it solves a static control problem for the collateral share and shows that the risk-constrained formulation provides a more robust operating benchmark relative to the economic optimum. In comparative calibration, the required collateral rises monotonically under volatility stress. The collateral is the lowest for BTC and increases significantly for long tail assets such as LINK and DOGE. Second, the paper derives an asymmetric dynamic extension in which the lower boundary of intervention is solvency driven, and the upper boundary is determined by a trade-off between carry-loss and the cost of rebalancing. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the lower boundary remains structurally relevant, whereas meaningful interior upper triggers survive mainly in the regimes with high carry and low costs. Third, the paper validates an execution-aware implementation with live routed execution and historical backtests. The execution layer shows that the realized wedges are significant, but become worse in the case of selling the basis. This justifies a minimum effective rebalancing size and a positive execution buffer. The historical validation shows that in the case of a fixed control rule the realized performance is predominantly explained by the funding environment.

Imposing known physical constraints, such as conservation laws, during neural network training introduces an inductive bias that can improve accuracy, reliability, convergence, and data efficiency for modeling physical dynamics. While such constraints can be softly imposed via loss function penalties, recent advancements in differentiable physics and optimization improve performance by incorporating PDE-constrained optimization as individual layers in neural networks. This enables a stricter adherence to physical constraints. However, imposing hard constraints significantly increases computational and memory costs, especially for complex dynamical systems. This is because it requires solving an optimization problem over a large number of points in a mesh, representing spatial and temporal discretizations, which greatly increases the complexity of the constraint. To address this challenge, we develop a scalable approach to enforce hard physical constraints using Mixture-of-Experts (MoE), which can be used with any neural network architecture. Our approach imposes the constraint over smaller decomposed domains, each of which is solved by an "expert" through differentiable optimization. During training, each expert independently performs a localized backpropagation step by leveraging the implicit function theorem; the independence of each expert allows for parallelization across multiple GPUs. Compared to standard differentiable optimization, our scalable approach achieves greater accuracy in the neural PDE solver setting for predicting the dynamics of challenging non-linear systems. We also improve training stability and require significantly less computation time during both training and inference stages.

Firm characteristics are commonly represented as fixed vectors, even though evidence about firms' operations arrives as heterogeneous collections of articles reports. We study how distances between distributions of firm characteristics restrict systematic covariance. For given latent exposure laws, quadratic Wasserstein geometry yields sharp covariance endpoints over admissible couplings. Under a common randomized bi-Lipschitz characteristic-to-exposure map, bounded risk-coordinate slack, and a maintained return-covariance bridge, characteristic-side distance yields a conditional interval for the covariance ceiling. Greater separation then leaves less scope for aligned systematic exposures when these assumptions are tight, while a non-negative transport excess term records the gap between realized and maximum-covariance arrangements. The resulting envelope is scenario analysis rather than an expected-return, no-arbitrage, or identified structural model. Empirically, we proxy characteristic distributions with encoder-only language-model embeddings of financial news articles, disclosures, and analyst reports for Nasdaq firms over 2018-2022. In a dyadic regression with symmetric firm effects, greater pairwise article-embedding W2 distance is associated with weaker return co-movement: the coefficient is 1.920, with 95% interval [1.412, 2.468]. The estimate retains the same sign when returns are measured in a later window, although the feature construction is not point-in-time and the evidence remains reduced form.

Managing drawdown, the peak-to-trough decline in an investment portfolio's value, is a precondition for long-term survival in practical investment management. However, mainstream stock forecasting methods predominantly optimize returns or Sharpe ratios under the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) assumption. Real markets do not follow this assumption, triggering catastrophic drawdowns. We propose a cross-asset state-space trading system (CAST), consisting of two components: The predictor, Cross-Asset Collaborative Kalman Filter (CoKF), estimates each asset's latent state online, coupling all assets through their correlations and adaptively fusing multiple integrated-random-walk orders. The controller, Model Predictive Control (MPC), converts the predictor's forecast into trades, using forecast uncertainty as an explicit risk penalty that controls drawdown. We evaluate CAST on four real-world stock markets over a 15-year test window and show that it consistently occupies the return-drawdown Pareto frontier, achieving strong risk-adjusted performance while maintaining substantially lower maximum drawdown than competitive baselines. A stress test across crisis periods further demonstrates robust behavior under market shocks and distribution shift. Because the predictor and controller interact only through the predicted price path, both are plug-and-play, making CAST a modular, interpretable trading system. The code is available at https://github.com/FanBroWell/CAST

As deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has been recognized as an effective approach in quantitative finance, getting hands-on experiences is attractive to beginners. However, to train a practical DRL trading agent that decides where to trade, at what price, and what quantity involves error-prone and arduous development and debugging. In this paper, we introduce a DRL library FinRL that facilitates beginners to expose themselves to quantitative finance and to develop their own stock trading strategies. Along with easily-reproducible tutorials, FinRL library allows users to streamline their own developments and to compare with existing schemes easily. Within FinRL, virtual environments are configured with stock market datasets, trading agents are trained with neural networks, and extensive backtesting is analyzed via trading performance. Moreover, it incorporates important trading constraints such as transaction cost, market liquidity and the investor's degree of risk-aversion. FinRL is featured with completeness, hands-on tutorial and reproducibility that favors beginners: (i) at multiple levels of time granularity, FinRL simulates trading environments across various stock markets, including NASDAQ-100, DJIA, S&P 500, HSI, SSE 50, and CSI 300; (ii) organized in a layered architecture with modular structure, FinRL provides fine-tuned state-of-the-art DRL algorithms (DQN, DDPG, PPO, SAC, A2C, TD3, etc.), commonly-used reward functions and standard evaluation baselines to alleviate the debugging workloads and promote the reproducibility, and (iii) being highly extendable, FinRL reserves a complete set of user-import interfaces. Furthermore, we incorporated three application demonstrations, namely single stock trading, multiple stock trading, and portfolio allocation. The FinRL library will be available on Github at link https://github.com/AI4Finance-LLC/FinRL-Library.

Deep Reinforcement Learning approaches to Online Portfolio Selection have grown in popularity in recent years. The sensitive nature of training Reinforcement Learning agents implies a need for extensive efforts in market representation, behavior objectives, and training processes, which have often been lacking in previous works. We propose a training and evaluation process to assess the performance of classical DRL algorithms for portfolio management. We found that most Deep Reinforcement Learning algorithms were not robust, with strategies generalizing poorly and degrading quickly during backtesting.

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) aims to assess the effectiveness of counterfactual policies using only offline logged data and is often used to identify the top-k promising policies for deployment in online A/B tests. Existing evaluation metrics for OPE estimators primarily focus on the "accuracy" of OPE or that of downstream policy selection, neglecting risk-return tradeoff in the subsequent online policy deployment. To address this issue, we draw inspiration from portfolio evaluation in finance and develop a new metric, called SharpeRatio@k, which measures the risk-return tradeoff of policy portfolios formed by an OPE estimator under varying online evaluation budgets (k). We validate our metric in two example scenarios, demonstrating its ability to effectively distinguish between low-risk and high-risk estimators and to accurately identify the most efficient one. Efficiency of an estimator is characterized by its capability to form the most advantageous policy portfolios, maximizing returns while minimizing risks during online deployment, a nuance that existing metrics typically overlook. To facilitate a quick, accurate, and consistent evaluation of OPE via SharpeRatio@k, we have also integrated this metric into an open-source software, SCOPE-RL (https://github.com/hakuhodo-technologies/scope-rl). Employing SharpeRatio@k and SCOPE-RL, we conduct comprehensive benchmarking experiments on various estimators and RL tasks, focusing on their risk-return tradeoff. These experiments offer several interesting directions and suggestions for future OPE research.

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that leverages multimodal data including historical stock prices, sentiment analysis, and topic embeddings from news articles, to optimize trading strategies for SP100 stocks. Building upon recent advancements in financial reinforcement learning, we aim to enhance the state space representation by integrating financial sentiment data from SEC filings and news headlines and refining the reward function to better align with portfolio performance metrics. Our methodology includes deep reinforcement learning with state tensors comprising price data, sentiment scores, and news embeddings, processed through advanced feature extraction models like CNNs and RNNs. By benchmarking against traditional portfolio optimization techniques and advanced strategies, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in delivering superior portfolio performance. Empirical results showcase the potential of our agent to outperform standard benchmarks, especially when utilizing combined data sources under profit-based reward functions.

As financial markets grow increasingly complex, there is a rising need for automated tools that can effectively assist human analysts in equity research, particularly within sell-side research. While Generative AI (GenAI) has attracted significant attention in this field, existing AI solutions often fall short due to their narrow focus on technical factors and limited capacity for discretionary judgment. These limitations hinder their ability to adapt to new data in real-time and accurately assess risks, which diminishes their practical value for investors. This paper presents FinRobot, the first AI agent framework specifically designed for equity research. FinRobot employs a multi-agent Chain of Thought (CoT) system, integrating both quantitative and qualitative analyses to emulate the comprehensive reasoning of a human analyst. The system is structured around three specialized agents: the Data-CoT Agent, which aggregates diverse data sources for robust financial integration; the Concept-CoT Agent, which mimics an analysts reasoning to generate actionable insights; and the Thesis-CoT Agent, which synthesizes these insights into a coherent investment thesis and report. FinRobot provides thorough company analysis supported by precise numerical data, industry-appropriate valuation metrics, and realistic risk assessments. Its dynamically updatable data pipeline ensures that research remains timely and relevant, adapting seamlessly to new financial information. Unlike existing automated research tools, such as CapitalCube and Wright Reports, FinRobot delivers insights comparable to those produced by major brokerage firms and fundamental research vendors. We open-source FinRobot at https://github. com/AI4Finance-Foundation/FinRobot.

Effective scheduling under tight resource, timing, and operational constraints underpins large-scale planning across sectors such as capital projects, manufacturing, logistics, and IT fleet transitions. However, the reliability of large language models (LLMs) when reasoning under high-constraint regimes is insufficiently characterized. To address this gap, we present R-ConstraintBench, a scalable framework that evaluates models on Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problems (RCPSP), an NP-Complete feasibility class, while difficulty increases via linear growth in constraints. R-ConstraintBench incrementally increases non-redundant precedence constraints in Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and then introduces downtime, temporal windows, and disjunctive constraints. As an illustrative example, we instantiate the benchmark in a data center migration setting and evaluate multiple LLMs using feasibility and error analysis, identifying degradation thresholds and constraint types most associated with failure. Empirically, strong models are near-ceiling on precedence-only DAGs, but feasibility performance collapses when downtime, temporal windows, and disjunctive constraints interact, implicating constraint interaction, not graph depth, as the principal bottleneck. Performance on clean synthetic ramps also does not guarantee transfer to domain-grounded scenarios, underscoring limited generalization.

Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle to directly generate correct plans for complex multi-constraint planning problems, even with self-verification and self-critique. For example, a U.S. domestic travel planning benchmark TravelPlanner was proposed in Xie et al. (2024), where the best LLM OpenAI o1-preview can only find viable travel plans with a 10% success rate given all needed information. In this work, we tackle this by proposing an LLM-based planning framework that formalizes and solves complex multi-constraint planning problems as constrained satisfiability problems, which are further consumed by sound and complete satisfiability solvers. We start with TravelPlanner as the primary use case and show that our framework achieves a success rate of 93.9% and is effective with diverse paraphrased prompts. More importantly, our framework has strong zero-shot generalizability, successfully handling unseen constraints in our newly created unseen international travel dataset and generalizing well to new fundamentally different domains. Moreover, when user input queries are infeasible, our framework can identify the unsatisfiable core, provide failure reasons, and offers personalized modification suggestions. We show that our framework can modify and solve for an average of 81.6% and 91.7% unsatisfiable queries from two datasets and prove with ablations that all key components of our framework are effective and necessary. Project page: https://sites.google.com/view/llm-rwplanning.

Online allocation problems with resource constraints are central problems in revenue management and online advertising. In these problems, requests arrive sequentially during a finite horizon and, for each request, a decision maker needs to choose an action that consumes a certain amount of resources and generates reward. The objective is to maximize cumulative rewards subject to a constraint on the total consumption of resources. In this paper, we consider a data-driven setting in which the reward and resource consumption of each request are generated using an input model that is unknown to the decision maker. We design a general class of algorithms that attain good performance in various input models without knowing which type of input they are facing. In particular, our algorithms are asymptotically optimal under independent and identically distributed inputs as well as various non-stationary stochastic input models, and they attain an asymptotically optimal fixed competitive ratio when the input is adversarial. Our algorithms operate in the Lagrangian dual space: they maintain a dual multiplier for each resource that is updated using online mirror descent. By choosing the reference function accordingly, we recover the dual sub-gradient descent and dual multiplicative weights update algorithm. The resulting algorithms are simple, fast, and do not require convexity in the revenue function, consumption function and action space, in contrast to existing methods for online allocation problems. We discuss applications to network revenue management, online bidding in repeated auctions with budget constraints, online proportional matching with high entropy, and personalized assortment optimization with limited inventory.

Stable diffusion models represent the state-of-the-art in data synthesis across diverse domains and hold transformative potential for applications in science and engineering, e.g., by facilitating the discovery of novel solutions and simulating systems that are computationally intractable to model explicitly. While there is increasing effort to incorporate physics-based constraints into generative models, existing techniques are either limited in their applicability to latent diffusion frameworks or lack the capability to strictly enforce domain-specific constraints. To address this limitation this paper proposes a novel integration of stable diffusion models with constrained optimization frameworks, enabling the generation of outputs satisfying stringent physical and functional requirements. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated through material design experiments requiring adherence to precise morphometric properties, challenging inverse design tasks involving the generation of materials inducing specific stress-strain responses, and copyright-constrained content generation tasks. All code has been released at https://github.com/RAISELab-atUVA/Constrained-Stable-Diffusion.

Major Internet advertising platforms offer budget pacing tools as a standard service for advertisers to manage their ad campaigns. Given the inherent non-stationarity in an advertiser's value and also competing advertisers' values over time, a commonly used approach is to learn a target expenditure plan that specifies a target spend as a function of time, and then run a controller that tracks this plan. This raises the question: how many historical samples are required to learn a good expenditure plan? We study this question by considering an advertiser repeatedly participating in T second-price auctions, where the tuple of her value and the highest competing bid is drawn from an unknown time-varying distribution. The advertiser seeks to maximize her total utility subject to her budget constraint. Prior work has shown the sufficiency of Tlog T samples per distribution to achieve the optimal O(T)-regret. We dramatically improve this state-of-the-art and show that just one sample per distribution is enough to achieve the near-optimal tilde O(T)-regret, while still being robust to noise in the sampling distributions.

Motivated by concerns about making online decisions that incur undue amount of risk at each time step, in this paper, we formulate the probably anytime-safe stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits problem. In this problem, the agent is given the option to select a subset of size at most K from a set of L ground items. Each item is associated to a certain mean reward as well as a variance that represents its risk. To mitigate the risk that the agent incurs, we require that with probability at least 1-delta, over the entire horizon of time T, each of the choices that the agent makes should contain items whose sum of variances does not exceed a certain variance budget. We call this probably anytime-safe constraint. Under this constraint, we design and analyze an algorithm {\sc PASCombUCB} that minimizes the regret over the horizon of time T. By developing accompanying information-theoretic lower bounds, we show that under both the problem-dependent and problem-independent paradigms, {\sc PASCombUCB} is almost asymptotically optimal. Experiments are conducted to corroborate our theoretical findings. Our problem setup, the proposed {\sc PASCombUCB} algorithm, and novel analyses are applicable to domains such as recommendation systems and transportation in which an agent is allowed to choose multiple items at a single time step and wishes to control the risk over the whole time horizon.

This paper investigates an important problem of an appropriate variance-covariance matrix estimation in the Modern Portfolio Theory. We propose a novel framework for variancecovariance matrix estimation for purposes of the portfolio optimization, which is based on deep learning models. We employ the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN) along with two probabilistic deep learning models: DeepVAR and GPVAR to the task of one-day ahead multivariate forecasting. We then use these forecasts to optimize portfolios of stocks and cryptocurrencies. Our analysis presents results across different combinations of observation windows and rebalancing periods to compare performances of classical and deep learning variance-covariance estimation methods. The conclusions of the study are that although the strategies (portfolios) performance differed significantly between different combinations of parameters, generally the best results in terms of the information ratio and annualized returns are obtained using the LSTM-RNN models. Moreover, longer observation windows translate into better performance of the deep learning models indicating that these methods require longer windows to be able to efficiently capture the long-term dependencies of the variance-covariance matrix structure. Strategies with less frequent rebalancing typically perform better than these with the shortest rebalancing windows across all considered methods.

We present two different methods for estimating the cost of solving SAT problems. The methods focus on the online behaviour of the backtracking solver, as well as the structure of the problem. Modern SAT solvers present several challenges to estimate search cost including coping with nonchronological backtracking, learning and restarts. Our first method adapt an existing algorithm for estimating the size of a search tree to deal with these challenges. We then suggest a second method that uses a linear model trained on data gathered online at the start of search. We compare the effectiveness of these two methods using random and structured problems. We also demonstrate that predictions made in early restarts can be used to improve later predictions. We conclude by showing that the cost of solving a set of problems can be reduced by selecting a solver from a portfolio based on such cost estimations.

Deep Learning is evolving fast and integrates into various domains. Finance is a challenging field for deep learning, especially in the case of interpretable artificial intelligence (AI). Although classical approaches perform very well with natural language processing, computer vision, and forecasting, they are not perfect for the financial world, in which specialists use different metrics to evaluate model performance. We first introduce financially grounded loss functions derived from key quantitative finance metrics, including the Sharpe ratio, Profit-and-Loss (PnL), and Maximum Draw down. Additionally, we propose turnover regularization, a method that inherently constrains the turnover of generated positions within predefined limits. Our findings demonstrate that the proposed loss functions, in conjunction with turnover regularization, outperform the traditional mean squared error loss for return prediction tasks when evaluated using algorithmic trading metrics. The study shows that financially grounded metrics enhance predictive performance in trading strategies and portfolio optimization.

This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns. Through factor analysis, the paper underscores the significance of momentum and short-term reversion in dictating sectoral shifts. A subsequent in-depth fundamental analysis evaluates metrics such as PE, PB, EV-to-EBITDA, Dividend Yield, among others. Our primary contribution lies in developing a predictive framework based on these fundamental indicators. The constructed models, post rigorous training, exhibit noteworthy predictive capabilities. The findings furnish a nuanced understanding of sector rotation strategies, with implications for asset management and portfolio construction in the financial domain.

We develop a rigorous walk-forward validation framework for algorithmic trading designed to mitigate overfitting and lookahead bias. Our methodology combines interpretable hypothesis-driven signal generation with reinforcement learning and strict out-of-sample testing. The framework enforces strict information set discipline, employs rolling window validation across 34 independent test periods, maintains complete interpretability through natural language hypothesis explanations, and incorporates realistic transaction costs and position constraints. Validating five market microstructure patterns across 100 US equities from 2015 to 2024, the system yields modest annualized returns (0.55%, Sharpe ratio 0.33) with exceptional downside protection (maximum drawdown -2.76%) and market-neutral characteristics (beta = 0.058). Performance exhibits strong regime dependence, generating positive returns during high-volatility periods (0.60% quarterly, 2020-2024) while underperforming in stable markets (-0.16%, 2015-2019). We report statistically insignificant aggregate results (p-value 0.34) to demonstrate a reproducible, honest validation protocol that prioritizes interpretability and extends naturally to advanced hypothesis generators, including large language models. The key empirical finding reveals that daily OHLCV-based microstructure signals require elevated information arrival and trading activity to function effectively. The framework provides complete mathematical specifications and open-source implementation, establishing a template for rigorous trading system evaluation that addresses the reproducibility crisis in quantitative finance research. For researchers, practitioners, and regulators, this work demonstrates that interpretable algorithmic trading strategies can be rigorously validated without sacrificing transparency or regulatory compliance.

Combinatorial problems are a common challenge in business, requiring finding optimal solutions under specified constraints. While significant progress has been made with variational approaches such as QAOA, most problems addressed are unconstrained (such as Max-Cut). In this study, we investigate a hybrid quantum-classical method for constrained optimization problems, particularly those with knapsack constraints that occur frequently in financial and supply chain applications. Our proposed method relies firstly on relaxations to local quantum Hamiltonians, defined through commutative maps. Drawing inspiration from quantum random access code (QRAC) concepts, particularly Quantum Random Access Optimizer (QRAO), we explore QRAO's potential in solving large constrained optimization problems. We employ classical techniques like Linear Relaxation as a presolve mechanism to handle constraints and cope further with scalability. We compare our approach with QAOA and present the final results for a real-world procurement optimization problem: a significant sized multi-knapsack-constrained problem.

Numerous real-world decision-making problems can be formulated and solved using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) models. However, the transformation of these problems into MILP models heavily relies on expertise in operations research and mathematical optimization, which restricts non-experts' accessibility to MILP. To address this challenge, we propose a framework for automatically formulating MILP models from unstructured natural language descriptions of decision problems, which integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) and mathematical modeling techniques. This framework consists of three phases: i) identification of decision variables, ii) classification of objective and constraints, and iii) finally, generation of MILP models. In this study, we present a constraint classification scheme and a set of constraint templates that can guide the LLMs in synthesizing a complete MILP model. After fine-tuning LLMs, our approach can identify and synthesize logic constraints in addition to classic demand and resource constraints. The logic constraints have not been studied in existing work. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, we extend the NL4Opt dataset with more problem descriptions and constraint types, and with the new dataset, we compare our framework with one-step model generation methods offered by LLMs. The experimental results reveal that with respect to the accuracies of generating the correct model, objective, and constraints, our method which integrates constraint classification and templates with LLMs significantly outperforms the others. The prototype system that we developed has a great potential to capture more constraints for more complex MILPs. It opens up opportunities for developing training tools for operations research practitioners and has the potential to be a powerful tool for automatic decision problem modeling and solving in practice.

FinanceQA is a testing suite that evaluates LLMs' performance on complex numerical financial analysis tasks that mirror real-world investment work. Despite recent advances, current LLMs fail to meet the strict accuracy requirements of financial institutions, with models failing approximately 60% of realistic tasks that mimic on-the-job analyses at hedge funds, private equity firms, investment banks, and other financial institutions. The primary challenges include hand-spreading metrics, adhering to standard accounting and corporate valuation conventions, and performing analysis under incomplete information - particularly in multi-step tasks requiring assumption generation. This performance gap highlights the disconnect between existing LLM capabilities and the demands of professional financial analysis that are inadequately tested by current testing architectures. Results show that higher-quality training data is needed to support such tasks, which we experiment with using OpenAI's fine-tuning API. FinanceQA is publicly released at [this https URL](https://huggingface.co/datasets/AfterQuery/FinanceQA).

We consider the linear contextual bandit problem with resource consumption, in addition to reward generation. In each round, the outcome of pulling an arm is a reward as well as a vector of resource consumptions. The expected values of these outcomes depend linearly on the context of that arm. The budget/capacity constraints require that the total consumption doesn't exceed the budget for each resource. The objective is once again to maximize the total reward. This problem turns out to be a common generalization of classic linear contextual bandits (linContextual), bandits with knapsacks (BwK), and the online stochastic packing problem (OSPP). We present algorithms with near-optimal regret bounds for this problem. Our bounds compare favorably to results on the unstructured version of the problem where the relation between the contexts and the outcomes could be arbitrary, but the algorithm only competes against a fixed set of policies accessible through an optimization oracle. We combine techniques from the work on linContextual, BwK, and OSPP in a nontrivial manner while also tackling new difficulties that are not present in any of these special cases.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) struggle to generate structured objects like molecules and game maps. The issue is that structured objects must satisfy hard requirements (e.g., molecules must be chemically valid) that are difficult to acquire from examples alone. As a remedy, we propose Constrained Adversarial Networks (CANs), an extension of GANs in which the constraints are embedded into the model during training. This is achieved by penalizing the generator proportionally to the mass it allocates to invalid structures. In contrast to other generative models, CANs support efficient inference of valid structures (with high probability) and allows to turn on and off the learned constraints at inference time. CANs handle arbitrary logical constraints and leverage knowledge compilation techniques to efficiently evaluate the disagreement between the model and the constraints. Our setup is further extended to hybrid logical-neural constraints for capturing very complex constraints, like graph reachability. An extensive empirical analysis shows that CANs efficiently generate valid structures that are both high-quality and novel.

In this report, we survey Bayesian Optimization methods focussed on the Multi-Armed Bandit Problem. We take the help of the paper "Portfolio Allocation for Bayesian Optimization". We report a small literature survey on the acquisition functions and the types of portfolio strategies used in papers discussing Bayesian Optimization. We also replicate the experiments and report our findings and compare them to the results in the paper. Code link: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1GZ14klEDoe3dcBeZKo5l8qqrKf_GmBDn?usp=sharing#scrollTo=XgIBau3O45_V.

We present a quantum algorithm for portfolio optimization. We discuss the market data input, the processing of such data via quantum operations, and the output of financially relevant results. Given quantum access to the historical record of returns, the algorithm determines the optimal risk-return tradeoff curve and allows one to sample from the optimal portfolio. The algorithm can in principle attain a run time of {rm poly}(log(N)), where N is the size of the historical return dataset. Direct classical algorithms for determining the risk-return curve and other properties of the optimal portfolio take time {rm poly}(N) and we discuss potential quantum speedups in light of the recent works on efficient classical sampling approaches.

The estimation of loss distributions for dynamic portfolios requires the simulation of scenarios representing realistic joint dynamics of their components. We propose a novel data-driven approach for simulating realistic, high-dimensional multi-asset scenarios, focusing on accurately representing tail risk for a class of static and dynamic trading strategies. We exploit the joint elicitability property of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) to design a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) that learns to simulate price scenarios preserving these tail risk features. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithm on synthetic and market data sets through detailed numerical experiments. In contrast to previously proposed data-driven scenario generators, our proposed method correctly captures tail risk for a broad class of trading strategies and demonstrates strong generalization capabilities. In addition, combining our method with principal component analysis of the input data enhances its scalability to large-dimensional multi-asset time series, setting our framework apart from the univariate settings commonly considered in the literature.

We introduce the Consensus-Bottleneck Asset Pricing Model (CB-APM), a framework that reconciles the predictive power of deep learning with the structural transparency of traditional finance. By embedding aggregate analyst consensus as a structural "bottleneck", the model treats professional beliefs as a sufficient statistic for the market's high-dimensional information set. We document a striking "interpretability-accuracy amplification effect" for annual horizons, the structural constraint acts as an endogenous regularizer that significantly improves out-of-sample R2 over unconstrained benchmarks. Portfolios sorted on CB-APM forecasts exhibit a strong monotonic return gradient, delivering an annualized Sharpe ratio of 1.44 and robust performance across macroeconomic regimes. Furthermore, pricing diagnostics reveal that the learned consensus captures priced variation only partially spanned by canonical factor models, identifying structured risk heterogeneity that standard linear models systematically miss. Our results suggest that anchoring machine intelligence to human-expert belief formation is not merely a tool for transparency, but a catalyst for uncovering new dimensions of belief-driven risk premiums.

Is bigger always better for time series foundation models? With the question in mind, we explore an alternative to training a single, large monolithic model: building a portfolio of smaller, pretrained forecasting models. By applying ensembling or model selection over these portfolios, we achieve competitive performance on large-scale benchmarks using much fewer parameters. We explore strategies for designing such portfolios and find that collections of specialist models consistently outperform portfolios of independently trained generalists. Remarkably, we demonstrate that post-training a base model is a compute-effective approach for creating sufficiently diverse specialists, and provide evidences that ensembling and model selection are more compute-efficient than test-time fine-tuning.

Constraints are critical in text generation as LLM outputs are often unreliable when it comes to ensuring generated outputs adhere to user defined instruction or general safety guidelines. To address this gap, we present Constrained Discrete Diffusion (CDD), a novel method for enforcing constraints on natural language by integrating discrete diffusion models with differentiable optimization. Unlike conventional text generators, which often rely on post-hoc filtering or model retraining for controllable generation, we propose imposing constraints directly into the discrete diffusion sampling process. We illustrate how this technique can be applied to satisfy a variety of natural language constraints, including (i) toxicity mitigation by preventing harmful content from emerging, (ii) character and sequence level lexical constraints, and (iii) novel molecule sequence generation with specific property adherence. Experimental results show that our constraint-aware procedure achieves high fidelity in meeting these requirements while preserving fluency and semantic coherence, outperforming auto-regressive and existing discrete diffusion approaches.

This paper develops a comprehensive theoretical framework that imports concepts from stochastic thermodynamics to model price impact and characterize the feasibility of round-trip arbitrage in financial markets. A trading cycle is treated as a non-equilibrium thermodynamic process, where price impact represents dissipative work and market noise plays the role of thermal fluctuations. The paper proves a Financial Second Law: under general convex impact functionals, any round-trip trading strategy yields non-positive expected profit. This structural constraint is complemented by a fluctuation theorem that bounds the probability of profitable cycles in terms of dissipated work and market volatility. The framework introduces a statistical ensemble of trading strategies governed by a Gibbs measure, leading to a free energy decomposition that connects expected cost, strategy entropy, and a market temperature parameter. The framework provides rigorous, testable inequalities linking microstructural impact to macroscopic no-arbitrage conditions, offering a novel physics-inspired perspective on market efficiency. The paper derives explicit analytical results for prototypical trading strategies and discusses empirical validation protocols.

Combinatorial optimization (CO) problems are often NP-hard and thus out of reach for exact algorithms, making them a tempting domain to apply machine learning methods. The highly structured constraints in these problems can hinder either optimization or sampling directly in the solution space. On the other hand, GFlowNets have recently emerged as a powerful machinery to efficiently sample from composite unnormalized densities sequentially and have the potential to amortize such solution-searching processes in CO, as well as generate diverse solution candidates. In this paper, we design Markov decision processes (MDPs) for different combinatorial problems and propose to train conditional GFlowNets to sample from the solution space. Efficient training techniques are also developed to benefit long-range credit assignment. Through extensive experiments on a variety of different CO tasks with synthetic and realistic data, we demonstrate that GFlowNet policies can efficiently find high-quality solutions.

The performance of trend following strategies can be ascribed to the difference between long-term and short-term realized variance. We revisit this general result and show that it holds for various definitions of trend strategies. This explains the positive convexity of the aggregate performance of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) which -- when adequately measured -- turns out to be much stronger than anticipated. We also highlight interesting connections with so-called Risk Parity portfolios. Finally, we propose a new portfolio of strangle options that provides a pure exposure to the long-term variance of the underlying, offering yet another viewpoint on the link between trend and volatility.

We address the problem of finite-horizon control of a discrete-time linear system, where the initial state distribution follows a Gaussian mixture model, the terminal state must follow a specified Gaussian distribution, and the state and control inputs must obey chance constraints. We show that, throughout the time horizon, the state and control distributions are fully characterized by Gaussian mixtures. We then formulate the cost, distributional terminal constraint, and affine/2-norm chance constraints on the state and control, as convex functions of the decision variables. This is leveraged to formulate the chance-constrained path planning problem as a single convex optimization problem. A numerical example demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

With the widespread adoption of machine learning systems, the need to curtail their behavior has become increasingly apparent. This is evidenced by recent advancements towards developing models that satisfy robustness, safety, and fairness requirements. These requirements can be imposed (with generalization guarantees) by formulating constrained learning problems that can then be tackled by dual ascent algorithms. Yet, though these algorithms converge in objective value, even in non-convex settings, they cannot guarantee that their outcome is feasible. Doing so requires randomizing over all iterates, which is impractical in virtually any modern applications. Still, final iterates have been observed to perform well in practice. In this work, we address this gap between theory and practice by characterizing the constraint violation of Lagrangian minimizers associated with optimal dual variables, despite lack of convexity. To do this, we leverage the fact that non-convex, finite-dimensional constrained learning problems can be seen as parametrizations of convex, functional problems. Our results show that rich parametrizations effectively mitigate the issue of feasibility in dual methods, shedding light on prior empirical successes of dual learning. We illustrate our findings in fair learning tasks.

We present an online method for estimating the cost of solving SAT problems. Modern SAT solvers present several challenges to estimate search cost including non-chronological backtracking, learning and restarts. Our method uses a linear model trained on data gathered at the start of search. We show the effectiveness of this method using random and structured problems. We demonstrate that predictions made in early restarts can be used to improve later predictions. We also show that we can use such cost estimations to select a solver from a portfolio.

We consider function optimization as a sequential decision making problem under budget constraint. This constraint limits the number of objective function evaluations allowed during the optimization. We consider an algorithm inspired by a continuous version of a multi-armed bandit problem which attacks this optimization problem by solving the tradeoff between exploration (initial quasi-uniform search of the domain) and exploitation (local optimization around the potentially global maxima). We introduce the so-called Simultaneous Optimistic Optimization (SOO), a deterministic algorithm that works by domain partitioning. The benefit of such approach are the guarantees on the returned solution and the numerical efficiency of the algorithm. We present this machine learning approach to optimization, and provide the empirical assessment of SOO on the CEC'2014 competition on single objective real-parameter numerical optimization test-suite.

Risk disclosures in SEC filings describe potential adverse events but rarely quantify their likelihood, limiting their usefulness for probabilistic analysis. A central obstacle is the absence of large-scale, risk-level supervision linking disclosed risks to realized outcomes. We introduce a fully automated data generation pipeline that converts qualitative SEC risk disclosures into temporally grounded supervision using only public data. For each filing, the pipeline generates firm-specific, time-bounded risk queries from the Risk Factors section and labels them by automatically resolving outcomes against subsequent disclosures. Using this dataset of risk queries and outcomes grounded in SEC filings, we train a compact large language model to estimate the probability that a disclosed risk will materialize within a specified horizon. Despite its modest size, the resulting model substantially improves over pretrained and heuristic baselines, and outperforms frontier general-purpose models, including GPT-5, on probabilistic accuracy and calibration. More broadly, this work demonstrates that Foresight Learning enables scalable and fully automated training of domain-specific expert models using only raw, chronological, in-domain text -- without proprietary data, external corpora, or manual annotation. The resulting models achieve frontier-level performance while remaining deployable on a single GPU. This result suggests a general pathway for learning calibrated, decision-relevant signals from naturally occurring enterprise documents. To support transparency and reproducibility, we open-source the evaluation dataset used in this study. Evaluation Data: https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/sec_risk_questions_test_set Data Generation Platform: https://lightningrod.ai/ SDK: https://github.com/lightning-rod-labs/lightningrod-python-sdk

Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank leverage (the ratio of asset holdings to equity) a quantity that both reflects and drives risk dynamics. We model how banks, constrained by Value-at-Risk (VaR) regulations, adjust their leverage in response to changes in the price of a single asset, assumed to be held in fixed proportion across banks. This leverage-targeting behavior introduces a procyclical feedback loop between asset prices and leverage. In the dynamics, this can manifest as logistic-like behavior with a rich bifurcation structure across model parameters. By analyzing these coupled dynamics in both isolated and interconnected bank models, we outline a framework for understanding how systemic risk can emerge from seemingly rational micro-level behavior.

We develop a method for training neural networks on Boolean data in which the values at all nodes are strictly pm 1, and the resulting models are typically equivalent to networks whose nonzero weights are also pm 1. The method replaces loss minimization with a nonconvex constraint formulation. Each node implements a Boolean threshold function (BTF), and training is expressed through a divide-and-concur decomposition into two complementary constraints: one enforces local BTF consistency between inputs, weights, and output; the other imposes architectural concurrence, equating neuron outputs with downstream inputs and enforcing weight equality across training-data instantiations of the network. The reflect-reflect-relax (RRR) projection algorithm is used to reconcile these constraints. Each BTF constraint includes a lower bound on the margin. When this bound is sufficiently large, the learned representations are provably sparse and equivalent to networks composed of simple logical gates with pm 1 weights. Across a range of tasks -- including multiplier-circuit discovery, binary autoencoding, logic-network inference, and cellular automata learning -- the method achieves exact solutions or strong generalization in regimes where standard gradient-based methods struggle. These results demonstrate that projection-based constraint satisfaction provides a viable and conceptually distinct foundation for learning in discrete neural systems, with implications for interpretability and efficient inference.

For many applications of reinforcement learning it can be more convenient to specify both a reward function and constraints, rather than trying to design behavior through the reward function. For example, systems that physically interact with or around humans should satisfy safety constraints. Recent advances in policy search algorithms (Mnih et al., 2016, Schulman et al., 2015, Lillicrap et al., 2016, Levine et al., 2016) have enabled new capabilities in high-dimensional control, but do not consider the constrained setting. We propose Constrained Policy Optimization (CPO), the first general-purpose policy search algorithm for constrained reinforcement learning with guarantees for near-constraint satisfaction at each iteration. Our method allows us to train neural network policies for high-dimensional control while making guarantees about policy behavior all throughout training. Our guarantees are based on a new theoretical result, which is of independent interest: we prove a bound relating the expected returns of two policies to an average divergence between them. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on simulated robot locomotion tasks where the agent must satisfy constraints motivated by safety.

Machine learning models are increasingly used to automate decisions that affect humans - deciding who should receive a loan, a job interview, or a social service. In such applications, a person should have the ability to change the decision of a model. When a person is denied a loan by a credit score, for example, they should be able to alter its input variables in a way that guarantees approval. Otherwise, they will be denied the loan as long as the model is deployed. More importantly, they will lack the ability to influence a decision that affects their livelihood. In this paper, we frame these issues in terms of recourse, which we define as the ability of a person to change the decision of a model by altering actionable input variables (e.g., income vs. age or marital status). We present integer programming tools to ensure recourse in linear classification problems without interfering in model development. We demonstrate how our tools can inform stakeholders through experiments on credit scoring problems. Our results show that recourse can be significantly affected by standard practices in model development, and motivate the need to evaluate recourse in practice.

Twenty-seven years ago, E. Freuder highlighted that "Constraint programming represents one of the closest approaches computer science has yet made to the Holy Grail of programming: the user states the problem, the computer solves it". Nowadays, CP users have great modeling tools available (like Minizinc and CPMpy), allowing them to formulate the problem and then let a solver do the rest of the job, getting closer to the stated goal. However, this still requires the CP user to know the formalism and respect it. Another significant challenge lies in the expertise required to effectively model combinatorial problems. All this limits the wider adoption of CP. In this position paper, we investigate a possible approach to leverage pre-trained Large Language Models to extract models from textual problem descriptions. More specifically, we take inspiration from the Natural Language Processing for Optimization (NL4OPT) challenge and present early results with a decomposition-based prompting approach to GPT Models.

Does semantic communication require a semantic information theory parallel to Shannon's information theory, or can Shannon's work be generalized for semantic communication? This paper advocates for the latter and introduces a semantic generalization of Shannon's information theory (G theory for short). The core idea is to replace the distortion constraint with the semantic constraint, achieved by utilizing a set of truth functions as a semantic channel. These truth functions enable the expressions of semantic distortion, semantic information measures, and semantic information loss. Notably, the maximum semantic information criterion is equivalent to the maximum likelihood criterion and similar to the Regularized Least Squares criterion. This paper shows G theory's applications to daily and electronic semantic communication, machine learning, constraint control, Bayesian confirmation, portfolio theory, and information value. The improvements in machine learning methods involve multilabel learning and classification, maximum mutual information classification, mixture models, and solving latent variables. Furthermore, insights from statistical physics are discussed: Shannon information is similar to free energy; semantic information to free energy in local equilibrium systems; and information efficiency to the efficiency of free energy in performing work. The paper also proposes refining Friston's minimum free energy principle into the maximum information efficiency principle. Lastly, it compares G theory with other semantic information theories and discusses its limitation in representing the semantics of complex data.

Incorporating prior knowledge or specifications of input-output relationships into machine learning models has attracted significant attention, as it enhances generalization from limited data and yields conforming outputs. However, most existing approaches use soft constraints by penalizing violations through regularization, which offers no guarantee of constraint satisfaction, especially on inputs far from the training distribution--an essential requirement in safety-critical applications. On the other hand, imposing hard constraints on neural networks may hinder their representational power, adversely affecting performance. To address this, we propose HardNet, a practical framework for constructing neural networks that inherently satisfy hard constraints without sacrificing model capacity. Unlike approaches that modify outputs only at inference time, HardNet enables end-to-end training with hard constraint guarantees, leading to improved performance. To the best of our knowledge, HardNet is the first method that enables efficient and differentiable enforcement of more than one input-dependent inequality constraint. It allows unconstrained optimization of the network parameters using standard algorithms by appending a differentiable closed-form enforcement layer to the network's output. Furthermore, we show that HardNet retains neural networks' universal approximation capabilities. We demonstrate its versatility and effectiveness across various applications: learning with piecewise constraints, learning optimization solvers with guaranteed feasibility, and optimizing control policies in safety-critical systems.

Financial time series (FinTS) record the behavior of human-brain-augmented decision-making, capturing valuable historical information that can be leveraged for profitable investment strategies. Not surprisingly, this area has attracted considerable attention from researchers, who have proposed a wide range of methods based on various backbones. However, the evaluation of the area often exhibits three systemic limitations: 1. Failure to account for the full spectrum of stock movement patterns observed in dynamic financial markets. (Diversity Gap), 2. The absence of unified assessment protocols undermines the validity of cross-study performance comparisons. (Standardization Deficit), and 3. Neglect of critical market structure factors, resulting in inflated performance metrics that lack practical applicability. (Real-World Mismatch). Addressing these limitations, we propose FinTSB, a comprehensive and practical benchmark for financial time series forecasting (FinTSF). To increase the variety, we categorize movement patterns into four specific parts, tokenize and pre-process the data, and assess the data quality based on some sequence characteristics. To eliminate biases due to different evaluation settings, we standardize the metrics across three dimensions and build a user-friendly, lightweight pipeline incorporating methods from various backbones. To accurately simulate real-world trading scenarios and facilitate practical implementation, we extensively model various regulatory constraints, including transaction fees, among others. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on FinTSB, highlighting key insights to guide model selection under varying market conditions. Overall, FinTSB provides researchers with a novel and comprehensive platform for improving and evaluating FinTSF methods. The code is available at https://github.com/TongjiFinLab/FinTSB.

Loss Given Default (LGD) modeling faces a fundamental data quality constraint: 90% of available training data consists of proxy estimates based on pre-distress balance sheets rather than actual recovery outcomes from completed bankruptcy proceedings. We demonstrate that this mixture-contaminated training structure causes systematic failure of recursive partitioning methods, with Random Forest achieving negative r-squared (-0.664, worse than predicting the mean) on held-out test data. Information-theoretic approaches based on Shannon entropy and mutual information provide superior generalization, achieving r-squared of 0.191 and RMSE of 0.284 on 1,218 corporate bankruptcies (1980-2023). Analysis reveals that leverage-based features contain 1.510 bits of mutual information while size effects contribute only 0.086 bits, contradicting regulatory assumptions about scale-dependent recovery. These results establish practical guidance for financial institutions deploying LGD models under Basel III requirements when representative outcome data is unavailable at sufficient scale. The findings generalize to medical outcomes research, climate forecasting, and technology reliability-domains where extended observation periods create unavoidable mixture structure in training data.

Recent text-to-image diffusion models have demonstrated an astonishing capacity to generate high-quality images. However, researchers mainly studied the way of synthesizing images with only text prompts. While some works have explored using other modalities as conditions, considerable paired data, e.g., box/mask-image pairs, and fine-tuning time are required for nurturing models. As such paired data is time-consuming and labor-intensive to acquire and restricted to a closed set, this potentially becomes the bottleneck for applications in an open world. This paper focuses on the simplest form of user-provided conditions, e.g., box or scribble. To mitigate the aforementioned problem, we propose a training-free method to control objects and contexts in the synthesized images adhering to the given spatial conditions. Specifically, three spatial constraints, i.e., Inner-Box, Outer-Box, and Corner Constraints, are designed and seamlessly integrated into the denoising step of diffusion models, requiring no additional training and massive annotated layout data. Extensive results show that the proposed constraints can control what and where to present in the images while retaining the ability of the Stable Diffusion model to synthesize with high fidelity and diverse concept coverage. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Sierkinhane/BoxDiff.

Optimizing objective functions subject to constraints is fundamental in many real-world applications. However, these constraints are often not readily defined and must be inferred from expert agent behaviors, a problem known as Inverse Constraint Inference. Inverse Constrained Reinforcement Learning (ICRL) is a common solver for recovering feasible constraints in complex environments, relying on training samples collected from interactive environments. However, the efficacy and efficiency of current sampling strategies remain unclear. We propose a strategic exploration framework for sampling with guaranteed efficiency to bridge this gap. By defining the feasible cost set for ICRL problems, we analyze how estimation errors in transition dynamics and the expert policy influence the feasibility of inferred constraints. Based on this analysis, we introduce two exploratory algorithms to achieve efficient constraint inference via 1) dynamically reducing the bounded aggregate error of cost estimations or 2) strategically constraining the exploration policy around plausibly optimal ones. Both algorithms are theoretically grounded with tractable sample complexity, and their performance is validated empirically across various environments.

The construction of artificial general intelligence (AGI) was a long-term goal of AI research aiming to deal with the complex data in the real world and make reasonable judgments in various cases like a human. However, the current AI creations, referred to as "Narrow AI", are limited to a specific problem. The constraints come from two basic assumptions of data, which are independent and identical distributed samples and single-valued mapping between inputs and outputs. We completely break these constraints and develop the subjectivity learning theory for general intelligence. We assign the mathematical meaning for the philosophical concept of subjectivity and build the data representation of general intelligence. Under the subjectivity representation, then the global risk is constructed as the new learning goal. We prove that subjectivity learning holds a lower risk bound than traditional machine learning. Moreover, we propose the principle of empirical global risk minimization (EGRM) as the subjectivity learning process in practice, establish the condition of consistency, and present triple variables for controlling the total risk bound. The subjectivity learning is a novel learning theory for unconstrained real data and provides a path to develop AGI.

Graphic layout generation is a growing research area focusing on generating aesthetically pleasing layouts ranging from poster designs to documents. While recent research has explored ways to incorporate user constraints to guide the layout generation, these constraints often require complex specifications which reduce usability. We introduce an innovative approach exploiting user-provided sketches as intuitive constraints and we demonstrate empirically the effectiveness of this new guidance method, establishing the sketch-to-layout problem as a promising research direction, which is currently under-explored. To tackle the sketch-to-layout problem, we propose a multimodal transformer-based solution using the sketch and the content assets as inputs to produce high quality layouts. Since collecting sketch training data from human annotators to train our model is very costly, we introduce a novel and efficient method to synthetically generate training sketches at scale. We train and evaluate our model on three publicly available datasets: PubLayNet, DocLayNet and SlidesVQA, demonstrating that it outperforms state-of-the-art constraint-based methods, while offering a more intuitive design experience. In order to facilitate future sketch-to-layout research, we release O(200k) synthetically-generated sketches for the public datasets above. The datasets are available at https://github.com/google-deepmind/sketch_to_layout.

It is common in graphic design humans visually arrange various elements according to their design intent and semantics. For example, a title text almost always appears on top of other elements in a document. In this work, we generate graphic layouts that can flexibly incorporate such design semantics, either specified implicitly or explicitly by a user. We optimize using the latent space of an off-the-shelf layout generation model, allowing our approach to be complementary to and used with existing layout generation models. Our approach builds on a generative layout model based on a Transformer architecture, and formulates the layout generation as a constrained optimization problem where design constraints are used for element alignment, overlap avoidance, or any other user-specified relationship. We show in the experiments that our approach is capable of generating realistic layouts in both constrained and unconstrained generation tasks with a single model. The code is available at https://github.com/ktrk115/const_layout .

Generative pre-trained transformer (GPT) models have revolutionized the field of natural language processing (NLP) with remarkable performance in various tasks and also extend their power to multimodal domains. Despite their success, large GPT models like GPT-4 face inherent limitations such as considerable size, high computational requirements, complex deployment processes, and closed development loops. These constraints restrict their widespread adoption and raise concerns regarding their responsible development and usage. The need for user-friendly, relatively small, and open-sourced alternative GPT models arises from the desire to overcome these limitations while retaining high performance. In this survey paper, we provide an examination of alternative open-sourced models of large GPTs, focusing on user-friendly and relatively small models that facilitate easier deployment and accessibility. Through this extensive survey, we aim to equip researchers, practitioners, and enthusiasts with a thorough understanding of user-friendly and relatively small open-sourced models of large GPTs, their current state, challenges, and future research directions, inspiring the development of more efficient, accessible, and versatile GPT models that cater to the broader scientific community and advance the field of general artificial intelligence. The source contents are continuously updating in https://github.com/GPT-Alternatives/gpt_alternatives.

We propose a novel approach for analysis of the composition of an equity mutual fund based on the time series decomposition of the price movements of the individual stocks of the fund. The proposed scheme can be applied to check whether the style proclaimed for a mutual fund actually matches with the fund composition. We have applied our proposed framework on eight well known mutual funds of varying styles in the Indian financial market to check the consistency between their fund style and actual fund composition, and have obtained extensive results from our experiments. A detailed analysis of the results has shown that while in majority of the cases the actual allocations of funds are consistent with the corresponding fund styles, there have been some notable deviations too.

The widespread use of neural networks across different scientific domains often involves constraining them to satisfy certain symmetries, conservation laws, or other domain knowledge. Such constraints are often imposed as soft penalties during model training and effectively act as domain-specific regularizers of the empirical risk loss. Physics-informed neural networks is an example of this philosophy in which the outputs of deep neural networks are constrained to approximately satisfy a given set of partial differential equations. In this work we review recent advances in scientific machine learning with a specific focus on the effectiveness of physics-informed neural networks in predicting outcomes of physical systems and discovering hidden physics from noisy data. We will also identify and analyze a fundamental mode of failure of such approaches that is related to numerical stiffness leading to unbalanced back-propagated gradients during model training. To address this limitation we present a learning rate annealing algorithm that utilizes gradient statistics during model training to balance the interplay between different terms in composite loss functions. We also propose a novel neural network architecture that is more resilient to such gradient pathologies. Taken together, our developments provide new insights into the training of constrained neural networks and consistently improve the predictive accuracy of physics-informed neural networks by a factor of 50-100x across a range of problems in computational physics. All code and data accompanying this manuscript are publicly available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/GradientPathologiesPINNs.

Although machine learning tasks are highly sensitive to the quality of input data, relevant datasets can often be challenging for firms to acquire, especially when held privately by a variety of owners. For instance, if these owners are competitors in a downstream market, they may be reluctant to share information. Focusing on supervised learning for regression tasks, we develop a regression market to provide a monetary incentive for data sharing. Our mechanism adopts a Bayesian framework, allowing us to consider a more general class of regression tasks. We present a thorough exploration of the market properties, and show that similar proposals in literature expose the market agents to sizeable financial risks, which can be mitigated in our setup.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

We propose a deep hedging framework for index option portfolios, grounded in a realistic market simulator that captures the joint dynamics of S&P 500 returns and the full implied volatility surface. Our approach integrates surface-informed decisions with multiple hedging instruments and explicitly accounts for transaction costs. The hedging strategy also considers the variance risk premium embedded in the hedging instruments, enabling more informed and adaptive risk management. Tested on a historical out-of-sample set of straddles from 2020 to 2023, our method consistently outperforms traditional delta-gamma hedging strategies across a range of market conditions.

This paper measures hour-of-day effects, filter precision, fragility, and realised yield in a 15-day paper-traded deployment of an autonomous memecoin trading system on Solana decentralised exchanges. The 190-trade sample (March 29 to April 12, 2026) shows a 40.5 percent win rate, mean per-trade return of +0.62 percent, cumulative +117.7 percent (net SOL +0.039), skewness -1.21, excess kurtosis 6.61. A Mann-Whitney U test of three poorest-performing UTC hours (2, 13, 23) against the others yields U = 1,274, p = 0.22; directional but not significant at n = 190. The three hours were selected in-sample, so the comparison is exploratory, not confirmatory. A parallel counterfactual rejection-tracking system collected 4,874 forward-sample observations across 184 distinct rejection events. Of those events, 17.9 percent reached a 50 percent drawdown from reference within 24 hours; 26.0 percent of forward samples recorded the rejected token below half-reference. The filter stack avoided these realised drawdowns: evidence that the rejection criteria are net-positive against forward-market outcomes. Fragility is the principal caveat. Removing the top three trades (1.6 percent of sample) flips cumulative return unprofitable. Profitability rests on a small number of large winners and is structurally fragile. The dataset and audit script are deposited under CC-BY-4.0 (Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20043302).

Constraint programming is known for being an efficient approach for solving combinatorial problems. Important design choices in a solver are the branching heuristics, which are designed to lead the search to the best solutions in a minimum amount of time. However, developing these heuristics is a time-consuming process that requires problem-specific expertise. This observation has motivated many efforts to use machine learning to automatically learn efficient heuristics without expert intervention. To the best of our knowledge, it is still an open research question. Although several generic variable-selection heuristics are available in the literature, the options for a generic value-selection heuristic are more scarce. In this paper, we propose to tackle this issue by introducing a generic learning procedure that can be used to obtain a value-selection heuristic inside a constraint programming solver. This has been achieved thanks to the combination of a deep Q-learning algorithm, a tailored reward signal, and a heterogeneous graph neural network architecture. Experiments on graph coloring, maximum independent set, and maximum cut problems show that our framework is able to find better solutions close to optimality without requiring a large amounts of backtracks while being generic.

In this paper, we propose a general theory of ambiguity-averse MDPs, which treats the uncertain transition probabilities as random variables and evaluates a policy via a risk measure applied to its random return. This ambiguity-averse MDP framework unifies several models of MDPs with epistemic uncertainty for specific choices of risk measures. We extend the concepts of value functions and Bellman operators to our setting. Based on these objects, we establish the consequences of dynamic programming principles in this framework (existence of stationary policies, value and policy iteration algorithms), and we completely characterize law-invariant risk measures compatible with dynamic programming. Our work draws connections among several variants of MDP models and fully delineates what is possible under the dynamic programming paradigm and which risk measures require leaving it.