Daily Papers

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial to decision-making under uncertainty about future weather. The dominant approach is to use an ensemble of forecasts to represent and quantify uncertainty in operational numerical weather prediction. However, generating ensembles is computationally costly. In this paper, we propose to generate ensemble forecasts at scale by leveraging recent advances in generative artificial intelligence. Our approach learns a data-driven probabilistic diffusion model from the 5-member ensemble GEFS reforecast dataset. The model can then be sampled efficiently to produce realistic weather forecasts, conditioned on a few members of the operational GEFS forecasting system. The generated ensembles have similar predictive skill as the full GEFS 31-member ensemble, evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis, and emulate well the statistics of large physics-based ensembles. We also apply the same methodology to developing a diffusion model for generative post-processing: the model directly learns to correct biases present in the emulated forecasting system by leveraging reanalysis data as labels during training. Ensembles from this generative post-processing model show greater reliability and accuracy, particularly in extreme event classification. In general, they are more reliable and forecast the probability of extreme weather more accurately than the GEFS operational ensemble. Our models achieve these results at less than 1/10th of the computational cost incurred by the operational GEFS system.

Dual-encoder (DE) models are widely used in retrieval tasks, most commonly studied on open QA benchmarks that are often characterized by multi-class and limited training data. In contrast, their performance in multi-label and data-rich retrieval settings like extreme multi-label classification (XMC), remains under-explored. Current empirical evidence indicates that DE models fall significantly short on XMC benchmarks, where SOTA methods linearly scale the number of learnable parameters with the total number of classes (documents in the corpus) by employing per-class classification head. To this end, we first study and highlight that existing multi-label contrastive training losses are not appropriate for training DE models on XMC tasks. We propose decoupled softmax loss - a simple modification to the InfoNCE loss - that overcomes the limitations of existing contrastive losses. We further extend our loss design to a soft top-k operator-based loss which is tailored to optimize top-k prediction performance. When trained with our proposed loss functions, standard DE models alone can match or outperform SOTA methods by up to 2% at Precision@1 even on the largest XMC datasets while being 20x smaller in terms of the number of trainable parameters. This leads to more parameter-efficient and universally applicable solutions for retrieval tasks. Our code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/nilesh2797/dexml.