Daily Papers

We present Loc-NeRF, a real-time vision-based robot localization approach that combines Monte Carlo localization and Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF). Our system uses a pre-trained NeRF model as the map of an environment and can localize itself in real-time using an RGB camera as the only exteroceptive sensor onboard the robot. While neural radiance fields have seen significant applications for visual rendering in computer vision and graphics, they have found limited use in robotics. Existing approaches for NeRF-based localization require both a good initial pose guess and significant computation, making them impractical for real-time robotics applications. By using Monte Carlo localization as a workhorse to estimate poses using a NeRF map model, Loc-NeRF is able to perform localization faster than the state of the art and without relying on an initial pose estimate. In addition to testing on synthetic data, we also run our system using real data collected by a Clearpath Jackal UGV and demonstrate for the first time the ability to perform real-time global localization with neural radiance fields. We make our code publicly available at https://github.com/MIT-SPARK/Loc-NeRF.

We present LASER, an image-based Monte Carlo Localization (MCL) framework for 2D floor maps. LASER introduces the concept of latent space rendering, where 2D pose hypotheses on the floor map are directly rendered into a geometrically-structured latent space by aggregating viewing ray features. Through a tightly coupled rendering codebook scheme, the viewing ray features are dynamically determined at rendering-time based on their geometries (i.e. length, incident-angle), endowing our representation with view-dependent fine-grain variability. Our codebook scheme effectively disentangles feature encoding from rendering, allowing the latent space rendering to run at speeds above 10KHz. Moreover, through metric learning, our geometrically-structured latent space is common to both pose hypotheses and query images with arbitrary field of views. As a result, LASER achieves state-of-the-art performance on large-scale indoor localization datasets (i.e. ZInD and Structured3D) for both panorama and perspective image queries, while significantly outperforming existing learning-based methods in speed.

We present MidasTouch, a tactile perception system for online global localization of a vision-based touch sensor sliding on an object surface. This framework takes in posed tactile images over time, and outputs an evolving distribution of sensor pose on the object's surface, without the need for visual priors. Our key insight is to estimate local surface geometry with tactile sensing, learn a compact representation for it, and disambiguate these signals over a long time horizon. The backbone of MidasTouch is a Monte-Carlo particle filter, with a measurement model based on a tactile code network learned from tactile simulation. This network, inspired by LIDAR place recognition, compactly summarizes local surface geometries. These generated codes are efficiently compared against a precomputed tactile codebook per-object, to update the pose distribution. We further release the YCB-Slide dataset of real-world and simulated forceful sliding interactions between a vision-based tactile sensor and standard YCB objects. While single-touch localization can be inherently ambiguous, we can quickly localize our sensor by traversing salient surface geometries. Project page: https://suddhu.github.io/midastouch-tactile/

Camera localization, i.e., camera pose regression, represents an important task in computer vision since it has many practical applications such as in the context of intelligent vehicles and their localization. Having reliable estimates of the regression uncertainties is also important, as it would allow us to catch dangerous localization failures. In the literature, uncertainty estimation in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) is often performed through sampling methods, such as Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) and Deep Ensemble (DE), at the expense of undesirable execution time or an increase in hardware resources. In this work, we considered an uncertainty estimation approach named Deep Evidential Regression (DER) that avoids any sampling technique, providing direct uncertainty estimates. Our goal is to provide a systematic approach to intercept localization failures of camera localization systems based on DNNs architectures, by analyzing the generated uncertainties. We propose to exploit CMRNet, a DNN approach for multi-modal image to LiDAR map registration, by modifying its internal configuration to allow for extensive experimental activity on the KITTI dataset. The experimental section highlights CMRNet's major flaws and proves that our proposal does not compromise the original localization performances but also provides, at the same time, the necessary introspection measures that would allow end-users to act accordingly.

We propose a Monte Carlo sampler from the reverse diffusion process. Unlike the practice of diffusion models, where the intermediary updates -- the score functions -- are learned with a neural network, we transform the score matching problem into a mean estimation one. By estimating the means of the regularized posterior distributions, we derive a novel Monte Carlo sampling algorithm called reverse diffusion Monte Carlo (rdMC), which is distinct from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We determine the sample size from the error tolerance and the properties of the posterior distribution to yield an algorithm that can approximately sample the target distribution with any desired accuracy. Additionally, we demonstrate and prove under suitable conditions that sampling with rdMC can be significantly faster than that with MCMC. For multi-modal target distributions such as those in Gaussian mixture models, rdMC greatly improves over the Langevin-style MCMC sampling methods both theoretically and in practice. The proposed rdMC method offers a new perspective and solution beyond classical MCMC algorithms for the challenging complex distributions.

While 3D Gaussian Splatting has recently become popular for neural rendering, current methods rely on carefully engineered cloning and splitting strategies for placing Gaussians, which can lead to poor-quality renderings, and reliance on a good initialization. In this work, we rethink the set of 3D Gaussians as a random sample drawn from an underlying probability distribution describing the physical representation of the scene-in other words, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples. Under this view, we show that the 3D Gaussian updates can be converted as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) updates by simply introducing noise. We then rewrite the densification and pruning strategies in 3D Gaussian Splatting as simply a deterministic state transition of MCMC samples, removing these heuristics from the framework. To do so, we revise the 'cloning' of Gaussians into a relocalization scheme that approximately preserves sample probability. To encourage efficient use of Gaussians, we introduce a regularizer that promotes the removal of unused Gaussians. On various standard evaluation scenes, we show that our method provides improved rendering quality, easy control over the number of Gaussians, and robustness to initialization.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo has proven a remarkable empirical success, but only recently have we begun to develop a rigorous understanding of why it performs so well on difficult problems and how it is best applied in practice. Unfortunately, that understanding is confined within the mathematics of differential geometry which has limited its dissemination, especially to the applied communities for which it is particularly important. In this review I provide a comprehensive conceptual account of these theoretical foundations, focusing on developing a principled intuition behind the method and its optimal implementations rather of any exhaustive rigor. Whether a practitioner or a statistician, the dedicated reader will acquire a solid grasp of how Hamiltonian Monte Carlo works, when it succeeds, and, perhaps most importantly, when it fails.

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any non-negative integer D for the total number of nestings. Standard Monte Carlo methods typically cost at least O(varepsilon^{-(2+D)}) and sometimes O(varepsilon^{-2(1+D)}) to obtain an estimator up to varepsilon-error. More advanced methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo, currently only exist for D = 1. In this paper, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator called READ, which stands for "Recursive Estimator for Arbitrary Depth.'' Our estimator has an optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2}) for every fixed D under suitable assumptions, and a nearly optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2(1 + delta)}) for any 0 < delta < frac12 under much more general assumptions. Our estimator is also unbiased, which makes it easy to parallelize. The key ingredients in our construction are an observation of the problem's recursive structure and the recursive use of the randomized multilevel Monte Carlo method.

We propose Monte Carlo Permutation Search (MCPS), a general-purpose Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm that improves upon the GRAVE algorithm. MCPS is relevant when deep reinforcement learning is not an option, or when the computing power available before play is not substantial, such as in General Game Playing, for example. The principle of MCPS is to include in the exploration term of a node the statistics on all the playouts that contain all the moves on the path from the root to the node. We extensively test MCPS on a variety of games: board games, wargame, investment game, video game and multi-player games. MCPS has better results than GRAVE in all the two-player games. It has equivalent results for multi-player games because these games are inherently balanced even when players have different strengths. We also show that using abstract codes for moves instead of exact codes can be beneficial to both MCPS and GRAVE, as they improve the permutation statistics and the AMAF statistics. We also provide a mathematical derivation of the formulas used for weighting the three sources of statistics. These formulas are an improvement on the GRAVE formula since they no longer use the bias hyperparameter of GRAVE. Moreover, MCPS is not sensitive to the ref hyperparameter.

This paper introduces the MCT Self-Refine (MCTSr) algorithm, an innovative integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) with Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), designed to enhance performance in complex mathematical reasoning tasks. Addressing the challenges of accuracy and reliability in LLMs, particularly in strategic and mathematical reasoning, MCTSr leverages systematic exploration and heuristic self-refine mechanisms to improve decision-making frameworks within LLMs. The algorithm constructs a Monte Carlo search tree through iterative processes of Selection, self-refine, self-evaluation, and Backpropagation, utilizing an improved Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) formula to optimize the exploration-exploitation balance. Extensive experiments demonstrate MCTSr's efficacy in solving Olympiad-level mathematical problems, significantly improving success rates across multiple datasets, including GSM8K, GSM Hard, MATH, and Olympiad-level benchmarks, including Math Odyssey, AIME, and OlympiadBench. The study advances the application of LLMs in complex reasoning tasks and sets a foundation for future AI integration, enhancing decision-making accuracy and reliability in LLM-driven applications.

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction that is used to project the two input measures to one dimension. Due to the intractability of the expectation, Monte Carlo integration is performed to estimate the value of the SW distance. Despite having various variants, there has been no prior work that improves the Monte Carlo estimation scheme for the SW distance in terms of controlling its variance. To bridge the literature on variance reduction and the literature on the SW distance, we propose computationally efficient control variates to reduce the variance of the empirical estimation of the SW distance. The key idea is to first find Gaussian approximations of projected one-dimensional measures, then we utilize the closed-form of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two Gaussian distributions to design the control variates. In particular, we propose using a lower bound and an upper bound of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two fitted Gaussians as two computationally efficient control variates. We empirically show that the proposed control variate estimators can help to reduce the variance considerably when comparing measures over images and point-clouds. Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed control variate estimators in gradient flows to interpolate between two point-clouds and in deep generative modeling on standard image datasets, such as CIFAR10 and CelebA.

We present Monte Carlo (MC) simulation results from a study of a compact plastic-scintillator detector suitable for imaging fast neutrons in the 1 -- 10 MeV energy range: the miniTimeCube (mTC). Originally designed for antineutrino detection, the mTC consists of 24 MultiChannel Plate (MCP) photodetectors surrounding a 13 cm cube of boron-doped plastic scintillator. Our simulation results show that waveform digitization of 1536 optically sensitive channels surrounding the scintillator should allow for spatiotemporal determination of individual neutron-proton scatters in the detector volume to thicksim100 picoseconds and thicksim5 mm. A Bayesian estimation framework is presented for multiple-scatter reconstruction, and is used to estimate the incoming direction and energy of simulated individual neutrons. Finally, we show how populations of reconstructed neutrons can be used to estimate the direction and energy spectrum of nearby simulated neutron sources.

We study the problem of approximate sampling from non-log-concave distributions, e.g., Gaussian mixtures, which is often challenging even in low dimensions due to their multimodality. We focus on performing this task via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods derived from discretizations of the overdamped Langevin diffusions, which are commonly known as Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms. Furthermore, we are also interested in two nonsmooth cases for which a large class of proximal MCMC methods have been developed: (i) a nonsmooth prior is considered with a Gaussian mixture likelihood; (ii) a Laplacian mixture distribution. Such nonsmooth and non-log-concave sampling tasks arise from a wide range of applications to Bayesian inference and imaging inverse problems such as image deconvolution. We perform numerical simulations to compare the performance of most commonly used Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms.

An important challenge in machine translation (MT) is to generate high-quality and diverse translations. Prior work has shown that the estimated likelihood from the MT model correlates poorly with translation quality. In contrast, quality evaluation metrics (such as COMET or BLEURT) exhibit high correlations with human judgments, which has motivated their use as rerankers (such as quality-aware and minimum Bayes risk decoding). However, relying on a single translation with high estimated quality increases the chances of "gaming the metric''. In this paper, we address the problem of sampling a set of high-quality and diverse translations. We provide a simple and effective way to avoid over-reliance on noisy quality estimates by using them as the energy function of a Gibbs distribution. Instead of looking for a mode in the distribution, we generate multiple samples from high-density areas through the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, a simple Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. The results show that our proposed method leads to high-quality and diverse outputs across multiple language pairs (Englishleftrightarrow{German, Russian}) with two strong decoder-only LLMs (Alma-7b, Tower-7b).

Building agents based on tree-search planning capabilities with learned models has achieved remarkable success in classic decision-making problems, such as Go and Atari. However, it has been deemed challenging or even infeasible to extend Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) based algorithms to diverse real-world applications, especially when these environments involve complex action spaces and significant simulation costs, or inherent stochasticity. In this work, we introduce LightZero, the first unified benchmark for deploying MCTS/MuZero in general sequential decision scenarios. Specificially, we summarize the most critical challenges in designing a general MCTS-style decision-making solver, then decompose the tightly-coupled algorithm and system design of tree-search RL methods into distinct sub-modules. By incorporating more appropriate exploration and optimization strategies, we can significantly enhance these sub-modules and construct powerful LightZero agents to tackle tasks across a wide range of domains, such as board games, Atari, MuJoCo, MiniGrid and GoBigger. Detailed benchmark results reveal the significant potential of such methods in building scalable and efficient decision intelligence. The code is available as part of OpenDILab at https://github.com/opendilab/LightZero.

Many poker systems, whether created with heuristics or machine learning, rely on the probability of winning as a key input. However calculating the precise probability using combinatorics is an intractable problem, so instead we approximate it. Monte Carlo simulation is an effective technique that can be used to approximate the probability that a player will win and/or tie a hand. However, without the use of a memory-intensive lookup table or a supercomputer, it becomes infeasible to run millions of times when training an agent with self-play. To combat the space-time tradeoff, we use deep learning to approximate the probabilities obtained from the Monte Carlo simulation with high accuracy. The learned model proves to be a lightweight alternative to Monte Carlo simulation, which ultimately allows us to use the probabilities as inputs during self-play efficiently. The source code and optimized neural network can be found at https://github.com/brandinho/Poker-Probability-Approximation

Rydberg atom arrays have emerged as a powerful platform to simulate a number of exotic quantum ground states and phase transitions. To verify these capabilities numerically, we develop a versatile quantum Monte Carlo sampling technique which operates in the reduced Hilbert space generated by enforcing the constraint of a Rydberg blockade. We use the framework of stochastic series expansion and show that in the restricted space, the configuration space of operator strings can be understood as a hard rod gas in d+1 dimensions. We use this mapping to develop cluster algorithms which can be visualized as various non-local movements of rods. We study the efficiency of each of our updates individually and collectively. To elucidate the utility of the algorithm, we show that it can efficiently generate the phase diagram of a Rydberg atom array, to temperatures much smaller than all energy scales involved, on a Kagom\'e link lattice. This is of broad interest as the presence of a Z_2 spin liquid has been hypothesized recently.

Diffusion models may be formulated as a time-indexed sequence of energy-based models, where the score corresponds to the negative gradient of an energy function. As opposed to learning the score directly, an energy parameterization is attractive as the energy itself can be used to control generation via Monte Carlo samplers. Architectural constraints and training instability in energy parameterized models have so far yielded inferior performance compared to directly approximating the score or denoiser. We address these deficiencies by introducing a novel training regime for the energy function through distillation of pre-trained diffusion models, resembling a Helmholtz decomposition of the score vector field. We further showcase the synergies between energy and score by casting the diffusion sampling procedure as a Feynman Kac model where sampling is controlled using potentials from the learnt energy functions. The Feynman Kac model formalism enables composition and low temperature sampling through sequential Monte Carlo.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

We propose efficient Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms for sampling distributions with nonsmooth convex composite potentials, which is the sum of a continuously differentiable function and a possibly nonsmooth function. We devise such algorithms leveraging recent advances in convex analysis and optimization methods involving Bregman divergences, namely the Bregman--Moreau envelopes and the Bregman proximity operators, and in the Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms reminiscent of mirror descent. The proposed algorithms extend existing Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms in two aspects -- the ability to sample nonsmooth distributions with mirror descent-like algorithms, and the use of the more general Bregman--Moreau envelope in place of the Moreau envelope as a smooth approximation of the nonsmooth part of the potential. A particular case of the proposed scheme is reminiscent of the Bregman proximal gradient algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is illustrated with various sampling tasks at which existing Langevin Monte Carlo methods are known to perform poorly.

The Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) remains a fundamental challenge in combinatorial optimization, inspiring diverse algorithmic strategies. This paper revisits the "heatmap + Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)" paradigm that has recently gained traction for learning-based TSP solutions. Within this framework, heatmaps encode the likelihood of edges forming part of the optimal tour, and MCTS refines this probabilistic guidance to discover optimal solutions. Contemporary approaches have predominantly emphasized the refinement of heatmap generation through sophisticated learning models, inadvertently sidelining the critical role of MCTS. Our extensive empirical analysis reveals two pivotal insights: 1) The configuration of MCTS strategies profoundly influences the solution quality, demanding meticulous tuning to leverage their full potential; 2) Our findings demonstrate that a rudimentary and parameter-free heatmap, derived from the intrinsic k-nearest nature of TSP, can rival or even surpass the performance of complicated heatmaps, with strong generalizability across various scales. Empirical evaluations across various TSP scales underscore the efficacy of our approach, achieving competitive results. These observations challenge the prevailing focus on heatmap sophistication, advocating a reevaluation of the paradigm to harness both components synergistically. Our code is available at: https://github.com/LOGO-CUHKSZ/rethink_mcts_tsp.

Connecting optimal transport and variational inference, we present a principled and systematic framework for sampling and generative modelling centred around divergences on path space. Our work culminates in the development of the Controlled Monte Carlo Diffusion sampler (CMCD) for Bayesian computation, a score-based annealing technique that crucially adapts both forward and backward dynamics in a diffusion model. On the way, we clarify the relationship between the EM-algorithm and iterative proportional fitting (IPF) for Schr{\"o}dinger bridges, deriving as well a regularised objective that bypasses the iterative bottleneck of standard IPF-updates. Finally, we show that CMCD has a strong foundation in the Jarzinsky and Crooks identities from statistical physics, and that it convincingly outperforms competing approaches across a wide array of experiments.

This article considers the popular MCMC method of unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) and provides a non-asymptotic analysis of its sampling error in 2-Wasserstein distance. The proof is based on a refinement of mean-square analysis in Li et al. (2019), and this refined framework automates the analysis of a large class of sampling algorithms based on discretizations of contractive SDEs. Using this framework, we establish an O(d/epsilon) mixing time bound for LMC, without warm start, under the common log-smooth and log-strongly-convex conditions, plus a growth condition on the 3rd-order derivative of the potential of target measures. This bound improves the best previously known O(d/epsilon) result and is optimal (in terms of order) in both dimension d and accuracy tolerance epsilon for target measures satisfying the aforementioned assumptions. Our theoretical analysis is further validated by numerical experiments.

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a powerful algorithm for solving complex decision-making problems. This paper presents an optimized MCTS implementation applied to the FrozenLake environment, a classic reinforcement learning task characterized by stochastic transitions. The optimization leverages cumulative reward and visit count tables along with the Upper Confidence Bound for Trees (UCT) formula, resulting in efficient learning in a slippery grid world. We benchmark our implementation against other decision-making algorithms, including MCTS with Policy and Q-Learning, and perform a detailed comparison of their performance. The results demonstrate that our optimized approach effectively maximizes rewards and success rates while minimizing convergence time, outperforming baseline methods, especially in environments with inherent randomness.

Planet-scale image geolocalization remains a challenging problem due to the diversity of images originating from anywhere in the world. Although approaches based on vision transformers have made significant progress in geolocalization accuracy, success in prior literature is constrained to narrow distributions of images of landmarks, and performance has not generalized to unseen places. We present a new geolocalization system that combines semantic geocell creation, multi-task contrastive pretraining, and a novel loss function. Additionally, our work is the first to perform retrieval over location clusters for guess refinements. We train two models for evaluations on street-level data and general-purpose image geolocalization; the first model, PIGEON, is trained on data from the game of Geoguessr and is capable of placing over 40% of its guesses within 25 kilometers of the target location globally. We also develop a bot and deploy PIGEON in a blind experiment against humans, ranking in the top 0.01% of players. We further challenge one of the world's foremost professional Geoguessr players to a series of six matches with millions of viewers, winning all six games. Our second model, PIGEOTTO, differs in that it is trained on a dataset of images from Flickr and Wikipedia, achieving state-of-the-art results on a wide range of image geolocalization benchmarks, outperforming the previous SOTA by up to 7.7 percentage points on the city accuracy level and up to 38.8 percentage points on the country level. Our findings suggest that PIGEOTTO is the first image geolocalization model that effectively generalizes to unseen places and that our approach can pave the way for highly accurate, planet-scale image geolocalization systems. Our code is available on GitHub.

Large language model (LLM) agents have demonstrated strong capabilities across diverse domains. However, designing high-performing agentic systems remains challenging. Existing agent search methods suffer from three major limitations: (1) an emphasis on optimizing agentic workflows while under-utilizing proven human-designed components such as memory, planning, and tool use; (2) high evaluation costs, as each newly generated agent must be fully evaluated on benchmarks; and (3) inefficient search in large search space. In this work, we introduce a comprehensive framework to address these challenges. First, We propose a hierarchical search space that jointly models agentic workflow and composable functional components, enabling richer agentic system designs. Building on this structured design space, we introduce a predictive value model that estimates agent performance given agentic system and task description, allowing for efficient, low-cost evaluation during the search process. Finally, we present a hierarchical Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) strategy informed by uncertainty to guide the search. Experiments on seven benchmarks, covering embodied, math, web, tool, and game, show that our method achieves an average performance gain of 8.34\% over state-of-the-art baselines and exhibits faster search progress with steeper improvement trajectories. Code repo is available at https://github.com/Ericccc02/AgentSwift.

Diffusion models (DMs) have proven to be effective in modeling high-dimensional distributions, leading to their widespread adoption for representing complex priors in Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs). However, current DM-based posterior sampling methods proposed for solving common BIPs rely on heuristic approximations to the generative process. To exploit the generative capability of DMs and avoid the usage of such approximations, we propose an ensemble-based algorithm that performs posterior sampling without the use of heuristic approximations. Our algorithm is motivated by existing works that combine DM-based methods with the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method. By examining how the prior evolves through the diffusion process encoded by the pre-trained score function, we derive a modified partial differential equation (PDE) governing the evolution of the corresponding posterior distribution. This PDE includes a modified diffusion term and a reweighting term, which can be simulated via stochastic weighted particle methods. Theoretically, we prove that the error between the true posterior distribution can be bounded in terms of the training error of the pre-trained score function and the number of particles in the ensemble. Empirically, we validate our algorithm on several inverse problems in imaging to show that our method gives more accurate reconstructions compared to existing DM-based methods.

Posterior sampling, i.e., exponential mechanism to sample from the posterior distribution, provides varepsilon-pure differential privacy (DP) guarantees and does not suffer from potentially unbounded privacy breach introduced by (varepsilon,delta)-approximate DP. In practice, however, one needs to apply approximate sampling methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), thus re-introducing the unappealing delta-approximation error into the privacy guarantees. To bridge this gap, we propose the Approximate SAample Perturbation (abbr. ASAP) algorithm which perturbs an MCMC sample with noise proportional to its Wasserstein-infinity (W_infty) distance from a reference distribution that satisfies pure DP or pure Gaussian DP (i.e., delta=0). We then leverage a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to generate the sample and prove that the algorithm converges in W_infty distance. We show that by combining our new techniques with a careful localization step, we obtain the first nearly linear-time algorithm that achieves the optimal rates in the DP-ERM problem with strongly convex and smooth losses.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular, surrogate model-based approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. Given a surrogate model, the next location to expensively evaluate is chosen via maximisation of a cheap-to-query acquisition function. We present an epsilon-greedy procedure for Bayesian optimisation in batch settings in which the black-box function can be evaluated multiple times in parallel. Our epsilon-shotgun algorithm leverages the model's prediction, uncertainty, and the approximated rate of change of the landscape to determine the spread of batch solutions to be distributed around a putative location. The initial target location is selected either in an exploitative fashion on the mean prediction, or -- with probability epsilon -- from elsewhere in the design space. This results in locations that are more densely sampled in regions where the function is changing rapidly and in locations predicted to be good (i.e close to predicted optima), with more scattered samples in regions where the function is flatter and/or of poorer quality. We empirically evaluate the epsilon-shotgun methods on a range of synthetic functions and two real-world problems, finding that they perform at least as well as state-of-the-art batch methods and in many cases exceed their performance.

State space models (SSM) have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large sequential datasets. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a very popular particle-based method to sample latent states from intractable posteriors. However, SSM is significantly influenced by the choice of the proposal. Recently Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling has shown success in many practical problems. In this paper, we propose an SMC augmented by HMC (HSMC) for inference and model learning of nonlinear SSM, which can exempt us from learning proposals and reduce the model complexity significantly. Based on the measure preserving property of HMC, the particles directly generated by transition function can approximate the posterior of latent states arbitrarily well. In order to better adapt to the local geometry of latent space, the HMC is conducted on Riemannian manifold defined by a positive definite metric. In addition, we show that the proposed HSMC method can improve SSMs realized by both Gaussian Processes (GP) and Neural Network (NN).

We introduce ensembles within score-based sampling methods to develop gradient-free approximate sampling techniques that leverage the collective dynamics of particle ensembles to compute approximate reverse diffusion drifts. We introduce the underlying methodology, emphasizing its relationship with generative diffusion models and the previously introduced F\"ollmer sampler. We demonstrate the efficacy of ensemble strategies through various examples, ranging from low- to medium-dimensionality sampling problems, including multi-modal and highly non-Gaussian probability distributions, and provide comparisons to traditional methods like NUTS. Our findings highlight the potential of ensemble strategies for modeling complex probability distributions in situations where gradients are unavailable. Finally, we showcase its application in the context of Bayesian inversion problems within the geophysical sciences.

Visual localization is the task of estimating a 6-DoF camera pose of a query image within a provided 3D reference map. Thanks to recent advances in various 3D sensors, 3D point clouds are becoming a more accurate and affordable option for building the reference map, but research to match the points of 3D point clouds with pixels in 2D images for visual localization remains challenging. Existing approaches that jointly learn 2D-3D feature matching suffer from low inliers due to representational differences between the two modalities, and the methods that bypass this problem into classification have an issue of poor refinement. In this work, we propose EP2P-Loc, a novel large-scale visual localization method that mitigates such appearance discrepancy and enables end-to-end training for pose estimation. To increase the number of inliers, we propose a simple algorithm to remove invisible 3D points in the image, and find all 2D-3D correspondences without keypoint detection. To reduce memory usage and search complexity, we take a coarse-to-fine approach where we extract patch-level features from 2D images, then perform 2D patch classification on each 3D point, and obtain the exact corresponding 2D pixel coordinates through positional encoding. Finally, for the first time in this task, we employ a differentiable PnP for end-to-end training. In the experiments on newly curated large-scale indoor and outdoor benchmarks based on 2D-3D-S and KITTI, we show that our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance compared to existing visual localization and image-to-point cloud registration methods.

In this paper, we present PALMS, an innovative indoor global localization and relocalization system for mobile smartphones that utilizes publicly available floor plans. Unlike most vision-based methods that require constant visual input, our system adopts a dynamic form of localization that considers a single instantaneous observation and odometry data. The core contribution of this work is the introduction of a particle filter initialization method that leverages the Certainly Empty Space (CES) constraint along with principal orientation matching. This approach creates a spatial probability distribution of the device's location, significantly improving localization accuracy and reducing particle filter convergence time. Our experimental evaluations demonstrate that PALMS outperforms traditional methods with uniformly initialized particle filters, providing a more efficient and accessible approach to indoor wayfinding. By eliminating the need for prior environmental fingerprinting, PALMS provides a scalable and practical approach to indoor navigation.

Learning in Gaussian Process models occurs through the adaptation of hyperparameters of the mean and the covariance function. The classical approach entails maximizing the marginal likelihood yielding fixed point estimates (an approach called Type II maximum likelihood or ML-II). An alternative learning procedure is to infer the posterior over hyperparameters in a hierarchical specification of GPs we call Fully Bayesian Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). This work considers two approximation schemes for the intractable hyperparameter posterior: 1) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) yielding a sampling-based approximation and 2) Variational Inference (VI) where the posterior over hyperparameters is approximated by a factorized Gaussian (mean-field) or a full-rank Gaussian accounting for correlations between hyperparameters. We analyze the predictive performance for fully Bayesian GPR on a range of benchmark data sets.

We present a scalable and effective exploration strategy based on Thompson sampling for reinforcement learning (RL). One of the key shortcomings of existing Thompson sampling algorithms is the need to perform a Gaussian approximation of the posterior distribution, which is not a good surrogate in most practical settings. We instead directly sample the Q function from its posterior distribution, by using Langevin Monte Carlo, an efficient type of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Our method only needs to perform noisy gradient descent updates to learn the exact posterior distribution of the Q function, which makes our approach easy to deploy in deep RL. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis for the proposed method and demonstrate that, in the linear Markov decision process (linear MDP) setting, it has a regret bound of O(d^{3/2}H^{3/2}T), where d is the dimension of the feature mapping, H is the planning horizon, and T is the total number of steps. We apply this approach to deep RL, by using Adam optimizer to perform gradient updates. Our approach achieves better or similar results compared with state-of-the-art deep RL algorithms on several challenging exploration tasks from the Atari57 suite.

Monte Carlo (MC) integration has been employed as the standard approximation method for the Sliced Wasserstein (SW) distance, whose analytical expression involves an intractable expectation. However, MC integration is not optimal in terms of absolute approximation error. To provide a better class of empirical SW, we propose quasi-sliced Wasserstein (QSW) approximations that rely on Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. For a comprehensive investigation of QMC for SW, we focus on the 3D setting, specifically computing the SW between probability measures in three dimensions. In greater detail, we empirically evaluate various methods to construct QMC point sets on the 3D unit-hypersphere, including the Gaussian-based and equal area mappings, generalized spiral points, and optimizing discrepancy energies. Furthermore, to obtain an unbiased estimator for stochastic optimization, we extend QSW to Randomized Quasi-Sliced Wasserstein (RQSW) by introducing randomness in the discussed point sets. Theoretically, we prove the asymptotic convergence of QSW and the unbiasedness of RQSW. Finally, we conduct experiments on various 3D tasks, such as point-cloud comparison, point-cloud interpolation, image style transfer, and training deep point-cloud autoencoders, to demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed QSW and RQSW variants.

Sphere packing, Hilbert's eighteenth problem, asks for the densest arrangement of congruent spheres in n-dimensional Euclidean space. Although relevant to areas such as cryptography, crystallography, and medical imaging, the problem remains unresolved: beyond a few special dimensions, neither optimal packings nor tight upper bounds are known. Even a major breakthrough in dimension n=8, later recognised with a Fields Medal, underscores its difficulty. A leading technique for upper bounds, the three-point method, reduces the problem to solving large, high-precision semidefinite programs (SDPs). Because each candidate SDP may take days to evaluate, standard data-intensive AI approaches are infeasible. We address this challenge by formulating SDP construction as a sequential decision process, the SDP game, in which a policy assembles SDP formulations from a set of admissible components. Using a sample-efficient model-based framework that combines Bayesian optimisation with Monte Carlo Tree Search, we obtain new state-of-the-art upper bounds in dimensions 4-16, showing that model-based search can advance computational progress in longstanding geometric problems. Together, these results demonstrate that sample-efficient, model-based search can make tangible progress on mathematically rigid, evaluation limited problems, pointing towards a complementary direction for AI-assisted discovery beyond large-scale LLM-driven exploration.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on a range of decision-making tasks, they rely on simple acting processes and fall short of broad deployment as autonomous agents. We introduce LATS (Language Agent Tree Search), a general framework that synergizes the capabilities of LLMs in planning, acting, and reasoning. Drawing inspiration from Monte Carlo tree search in model-based reinforcement learning, LATS employs LLMs as agents, value functions, and optimizers, repurposing their latent strengths for enhanced decision-making. What is crucial in this method is the use of an environment for external feedback, which offers a more deliberate and adaptive problem-solving mechanism that moves beyond the limitations of existing techniques. Our experimental evaluation across diverse domains, such as programming, HotPotQA, and WebShop, illustrates the applicability of LATS for both reasoning and acting. In particular, LATS achieves 94.4\% for programming on HumanEval with GPT-4 and an average score of 75.9 for web browsing on WebShop with GPT-3.5, demonstrating the effectiveness and generality of our method.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has made unprecedented advances in vision language models over the past two years. During the generative process, new samples (images) are generated from an unknown high-dimensional distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are particularly effective in drawing samples from such complex, high-dimensional distributions. This makes MCMC methods an integral component for models like EBMs, ensuring accurate sample generation. Gradient-based optimization is at the core of modern generative models. The update step during the optimization forms a Markov chain where the new update depends only on the current state. This allows exploration of the parameter space in a memoryless manner, thus combining the benefits of gradient-based optimization and MCMC sampling. MCMC methods have shown an equally important role in physically based rendering where complex light paths are otherwise quite challenging to sample from simple importance sampling techniques. A lot of research is dedicated towards bringing physical realism to samples (images) generated from diffusion-based generative models in a data-driven manner, however, a unified framework connecting these techniques is still missing. In this course, we take the first steps toward understanding each of these components and exploring how MCMC could potentially serve as a bridge, linking these closely related areas of research. Our course aims to provide necessary theoretical and practical tools to guide students, researchers and practitioners towards the common goal of generative physically based rendering. All Jupyter notebooks with demonstrations associated to this tutorial can be found on the project webpage: https://sinbag.github.io/mcmc/

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) have emerged as a powerful framework in the realm of generative modeling, offering a unique perspective that aligns closely with principles of statistical mechanics. This review aims to provide physicists with a comprehensive understanding of EBMs, delineating their connection to other generative models such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), and Normalizing Flows. We explore the sampling techniques crucial for EBMs, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and draw parallels between EBM concepts and statistical mechanics, highlighting the significance of energy functions and partition functions. Furthermore, we delve into state-of-the-art training methodologies for EBMs, covering recent advancements and their implications for enhanced model performance and efficiency. This review is designed to clarify the often complex interconnections between these models, which can be challenging due to the diverse communities working on the topic.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful algorithm to sample latent variables from Bayesian models. The advent of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) frees users from writing inference algorithms and lets users focus on modeling. However, many models are difficult for HMC to solve directly, and often require tricks like model reparameterization. We are motivated by the fact that many of those models could be simplified by marginalization. We propose to use automatic marginalization as part of the sampling process using HMC in a graphical model extracted from a PPL, which substantially improves sampling from real-world hierarchical models.

We introduce a novel framework for efficient sampling from complex, unnormalised target distributions by exploiting multiscale dynamics. Traditional score-based sampling methods either rely on learned approximations of the score function or involve computationally expensive nested Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) loops. In contrast, the proposed approach leverages stochastic averaging within a slow-fast system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to estimate intermediate scores along a diffusion path without training or inner-loop MCMC. Two algorithms are developed under this framework: MultALMC, which uses multiscale annealed Langevin dynamics, and MultCDiff, based on multiscale controlled diffusions for the reverse-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Both overdamped and underdamped variants are considered, with theoretical guarantees of convergence to the desired diffusion path. The framework is extended to handle heavy-tailed target distributions using Student's t-based noise models and tailored fast-process dynamics. Empirical results across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, including multimodal and high-dimensional distributions, demonstrate that the proposed methods are competitive with existing samplers in terms of accuracy and efficiency, without the need for learned models.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo provides efficient Markov transitions at the expense of introducing two free parameters: a step size and total integration time. Because the step size controls discretization error it can be readily tuned to achieve certain accuracy criteria, but the total integration time is left unconstrained. Recently Hoffman and Gelman proposed a criterion for tuning the integration time in certain systems with their No U-Turn Sampler, or NUTS. In this paper I investigate the dynamical basis for the success of NUTS and generalize it to Riemannian Manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.

Global visual geolocation predicts where an image was captured on Earth. Since images vary in how precisely they can be localized, this task inherently involves a significant degree of ambiguity. However, existing approaches are deterministic and overlook this aspect. In this paper, we aim to close the gap between traditional geolocalization and modern generative methods. We propose the first generative geolocation approach based on diffusion and Riemannian flow matching, where the denoising process operates directly on the Earth's surface. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on three visual geolocation benchmarks: OpenStreetView-5M, YFCC-100M, and iNat21. In addition, we introduce the task of probabilistic visual geolocation, where the model predicts a probability distribution over all possible locations instead of a single point. We introduce new metrics and baselines for this task, demonstrating the advantages of our diffusion-based approach. Codes and models will be made available.

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models, variational inference (VI) is often the preferable option. Unfortunately, VI makes strong assumptions on both the factorization and functional form of the posterior. In this work, we propose a new non-parametric variational approximation that makes no assumptions about the approximate posterior's functional form and allows practitioners to specify the exact dependencies the algorithm should respect or break. The approach relies on a new Langevin-type algorithm that operates on a modified energy function, where parts of the latent variables are averaged over samples from earlier iterations of the Markov chain. This way, statistical dependencies can be broken in a controlled way, allowing the chain to mix faster. This scheme can be further modified in a "dropout" manner, leading to even more scalability. We test our scheme for ResNet-20 on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and FMNIST. In all cases, we find improvements in convergence speed and/or final accuracy compared to SG-MCMC and VI.

What do auto-encoders learn about the underlying data generating distribution? Recent work suggests that some auto-encoder variants do a good job of capturing the local manifold structure of data. This paper clarifies some of these previous observations by showing that minimizing a particular form of regularized reconstruction error yields a reconstruction function that locally characterizes the shape of the data generating density. We show that the auto-encoder captures the score (derivative of the log-density with respect to the input). It contradicts previous interpretations of reconstruction error as an energy function. Unlike previous results, the theorems provided here are completely generic and do not depend on the parametrization of the auto-encoder: they show what the auto-encoder would tend to if given enough capacity and examples. These results are for a contractive training criterion we show to be similar to the denoising auto-encoder training criterion with small corruption noise, but with contraction applied on the whole reconstruction function rather than just encoder. Similarly to score matching, one can consider the proposed training criterion as a convenient alternative to maximum likelihood because it does not involve a partition function. Finally, we show how an approximate Metropolis-Hastings MCMC can be setup to recover samples from the estimated distribution, and this is confirmed in sampling experiments.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims.

Transformer-based trackers have achieved promising success and become the dominant tracking paradigm due to their accuracy and efficiency. Despite the substantial progress, most of the existing approaches tackle object tracking as a deterministic coordinate regression problem, while the target localization uncertainty has been greatly overlooked, which hampers trackers' ability to maintain reliable target state prediction in challenging scenarios. To address this issue, we propose UncTrack, a novel uncertainty-aware transformer tracker that predicts the target localization uncertainty and incorporates this uncertainty information for accurate target state inference. Specifically, UncTrack utilizes a transformer encoder to perform feature interaction between template and search images. The output features are passed into an uncertainty-aware localization decoder (ULD) to coarsely predict the corner-based localization and the corresponding localization uncertainty. Then the localization uncertainty is sent into a prototype memory network (PMN) to excavate valuable historical information to identify whether the target state prediction is reliable or not. To enhance the template representation, the samples with high confidence are fed back into the prototype memory bank for memory updating, making the tracker more robust to challenging appearance variations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms other state-of-the-art methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/ManOfStory/UncTrack.

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)-based algorithms, such as MuZero and its derivatives, have achieved widespread success in various decision-making domains. These algorithms employ the reanalyze process to enhance sample efficiency from stale data, albeit at the expense of significant wall-clock time consumption. To address this issue, we propose a general approach named ReZero to boost tree search operations for MCTS-based algorithms. Specifically, drawing inspiration from the one-armed bandit model, we reanalyze training samples through a backward-view reuse technique which uses the value estimation of a certain child node to save the corresponding sub-tree search time. To further adapt to this design, we periodically reanalyze the entire buffer instead of frequently reanalyzing the mini-batch. The synergy of these two designs can significantly reduce the search cost and meanwhile guarantee or even improve performance, simplifying both data collecting and reanalyzing. Experiments conducted on Atari environments, DMControl suites and board games demonstrate that ReZero substantially improves training speed while maintaining high sample efficiency. The code is available as part of the LightZero MCTS benchmark at https://github.com/opendilab/LightZero.

Recent studies have revealed a number of pathologies of neural machine translation (NMT) systems. Hypotheses explaining these mostly suggest there is something fundamentally wrong with NMT as a model or its training algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Most of this evidence was gathered using maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoding, a decision rule aimed at identifying the highest-scoring translation, i.e. the mode. We argue that the evidence corroborates the inadequacy of MAP decoding more than casts doubt on the model and its training algorithm. In this work, we show that translation distributions do reproduce various statistics of the data well, but that beam search strays from such statistics. We show that some of the known pathologies and biases of NMT are due to MAP decoding and not to NMT's statistical assumptions nor MLE. In particular, we show that the most likely translations under the model accumulate so little probability mass that the mode can be considered essentially arbitrary. We therefore advocate for the use of decision rules that take into account the translation distribution holistically. We show that an approximation to minimum Bayes risk decoding gives competitive results confirming that NMT models do capture important aspects of translation well in expectation.

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

We present a novel quasi-Monte Carlo mechanism to improve graph-based sampling, coined repelling random walks. By inducing correlations between the trajectories of an interacting ensemble such that their marginal transition probabilities are unmodified, we are able to explore the graph more efficiently, improving the concentration of statistical estimators whilst leaving them unbiased. The mechanism has a trivial drop-in implementation. We showcase the effectiveness of repelling random walks in a range of settings including estimation of graph kernels, the PageRank vector and graphlet concentrations. We provide detailed experimental evaluation and robust theoretical guarantees. To our knowledge, repelling random walks constitute the first rigorously studied quasi-Monte Carlo scheme correlating the directions of walkers on a graph, inviting new research in this exciting nascent domain.

State-of-the-art visual localization approaches generally rely on a first image retrieval step whose role is crucial. Yet, retrieval often struggles when facing varying conditions, due to e.g. weather or time of day, with dramatic consequences on the visual localization accuracy. In this paper, we improve this retrieval step and tailor it to the final localization task. Among the several changes we advocate for, we propose to synthesize variants of the training set images, obtained from generative text-to-image models, in order to automatically expand the training set towards a number of nameable variations that particularly hurt visual localization. After expanding the training set, we propose a training approach that leverages the specificities and the underlying geometry of this mix of real and synthetic images. We experimentally show that those changes translate into large improvements for the most challenging visual localization datasets. Project page: https://europe.naverlabs.com/ret4loc

We propose a new localized inference algorithm for answering marginalization queries in large graphical models with the correlation decay property. Given a query variable and a large graphical model, we define a much smaller model in a local region around the query variable in the target model so that the marginal distribution of the query variable can be accurately approximated. We introduce two approximation error bounds based on the Dobrushin's comparison theorem and apply our bounds to derive a greedy expansion algorithm that efficiently guides the selection of neighbor nodes for localized inference. We verify our theoretical bounds on various datasets and demonstrate that our localized inference algorithm can provide fast and accurate approximation for large graphical models.

Cross-view geo-localization in GNSS-denied environments aims to determine an unknown location by matching drone-view images with the correct geo-tagged satellite-view images from a large gallery. Recent research shows that learning discriminative image representations under specific weather conditions can significantly enhance performance. However, the frequent occurrence of unseen extreme weather conditions hinders progress. This paper introduces MCGF, a Multi-weather Cross-view Geo-localization Framework designed to dynamically adapt to unseen weather conditions. MCGF establishes a joint optimization between image restoration and geo-localization using denoising diffusion models. For image restoration, MCGF incorporates a shared encoder and a lightweight restoration module to help the backbone eliminate weather-specific information. For geo-localization, MCGF uses EVA-02 as a backbone for feature extraction, with cross-entropy loss for training and cosine distance for testing. Extensive experiments on University160k-WX demonstrate that MCGF achieves competitive results for geo-localization in varying weather conditions.

We consider the stochastic linear contextual bandit problem with high-dimensional features. We analyze the Thompson sampling algorithm using special classes of sparsity-inducing priors (e.g., spike-and-slab) to model the unknown parameter and provide a nearly optimal upper bound on the expected cumulative regret. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that provides theoretical guarantees of Thompson sampling in high-dimensional and sparse contextual bandits. For faster computation, we use variational inference instead of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterior distribution. Extensive simulations demonstrate the improved performance of our proposed algorithm over existing ones.

Accurate localization using visual information is a critical yet challenging task, especially in urban environments where nearby buildings and construction sites significantly degrade GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) signal quality. This issue underscores the importance of visual localization techniques in scenarios where GNSS signals are unreliable. This paper proposes U-ViLAR, a novel uncertainty-aware visual localization framework designed to address these challenges while enabling adaptive localization using high-definition (HD) maps or navigation maps. Specifically, our method first extracts features from the input visual data and maps them into Bird's-Eye-View (BEV) space to enhance spatial consistency with the map input. Subsequently, we introduce: a) Perceptual Uncertainty-guided Association, which mitigates errors caused by perception uncertainty, and b) Localization Uncertainty-guided Registration, which reduces errors introduced by localization uncertainty. By effectively balancing the coarse-grained large-scale localization capability of association with the fine-grained precise localization capability of registration, our approach achieves robust and accurate localization. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple localization tasks. Furthermore, our model has undergone rigorous testing on large-scale autonomous driving fleets and has demonstrated stable performance in various challenging urban scenarios.

We study uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations subject to domain uncertainty. We parameterize the random domain using the model recently considered by Chernov and Le (2024) as well as Harbrecht, Schmidlin, and Schwab (2024) in which the input random field is assumed to belong to a Gevrey smoothness class. This approach has the advantage of being substantially more general than models which assume a particular parametric representation of the input random field such as a Karhunen-Loeve series expansion. We consider both the Poisson equation as well as the heat equation and design randomly shifted lattice quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) cubature rules for the computation of the expected solution under domain uncertainty. We show that these QMC rules exhibit dimension-independent, essentially linear cubature convergence rates in this framework. In addition, we complete the error analysis by taking into account the approximation errors incurred by dimension truncation of the random input field and finite element discretization. Numerical experiments are presented to confirm the theoretical rates.

The dominant approach to generating from language models subject to some constraint is locally constrained decoding (LCD), incrementally sampling tokens at each time step such that the constraint is never violated. Typically, this is achieved through token masking: looping over the vocabulary and excluding non-conforming tokens. There are two important problems with this approach. (i) Evaluating the constraint on every token can be prohibitively expensive -- LM vocabularies often exceed 100,000 tokens. (ii) LCD can distort the global distribution over strings, sampling tokens based only on local information, even if they lead down dead-end paths. This work introduces a new algorithm that addresses both these problems. First, to avoid evaluating a constraint on the full vocabulary at each step of generation, we propose an adaptive rejection sampling algorithm that typically requires orders of magnitude fewer constraint evaluations. Second, we show how this algorithm can be extended to produce low-variance, unbiased estimates of importance weights at a very small additional cost -- estimates that can be soundly used within previously proposed sequential Monte Carlo algorithms to correct for the myopic behavior of local constraint enforcement. Through extensive empirical evaluation in text-to-SQL, molecular synthesis, goal inference, pattern matching, and JSON domains, we show that our approach is superior to state-of-the-art baselines, supporting a broader class of constraints and improving both runtime and performance. Additional theoretical and empirical analyses show that our method's runtime efficiency is driven by its dynamic use of computation, scaling with the divergence between the unconstrained and constrained LM, and as a consequence, runtime improvements are greater for better models.

We made a comparative analysis of numerical methods for multidimensional optimization. The main parameter is a number of computations of the test function to reach necessary accuracy, as it is computationally "slow". For complex functions, analytic differentiation by many parameters can cause problems associated with a significant complication of the program and thus slowing its operation. For comparison, we used the methods: "brute force" (or minimization on a regular grid), Monte Carlo, steepest descent, conjugate gradients, Brent's method (golden section search), parabolic interpolation etc. The Monte-Carlo method was applied to the eclipsing binary system AM Leo.

Image geolocalization, in which, traditionally, an AI model predicts the precise GPS coordinates of an image is a challenging task with many downstream applications. However, the user cannot utilize the model to further their knowledge other than the GPS coordinate; the model lacks an understanding of the location and the conversational ability to communicate with the user. In recent days, with tremendous progress of large multimodal models (LMMs) proprietary and open-source researchers have attempted to geolocalize images via LMMs. However, the issues remain unaddressed; beyond general tasks, for more specialized downstream tasks, one of which is geolocalization, LMMs struggle. In this work, we propose to solve this problem by introducing a conversational model GAEA that can provide information regarding the location of an image, as required by a user. No large-scale dataset enabling the training of such a model exists. Thus we propose a comprehensive dataset GAEA with 800K images and around 1.6M question answer pairs constructed by leveraging OpenStreetMap (OSM) attributes and geographical context clues. For quantitative evaluation, we propose a diverse benchmark comprising 4K image-text pairs to evaluate conversational capabilities equipped with diverse question types. We consider 11 state-of-the-art open-source and proprietary LMMs and demonstrate that GAEA significantly outperforms the best open-source model, LLaVA-OneVision by 25.69% and the best proprietary model, GPT-4o by 8.28%. Our dataset, model and codes are available

Recently, partial Bayesian neural networks (pBNNs), which only consider a subset of the parameters to be stochastic, were shown to perform competitively with full Bayesian neural networks. However, pBNNs are often multi-modal in the latent-variable space and thus challenging to approximate with parametric models. To address this problem, we propose an efficient sampling-based training strategy, wherein the training of a pBNN is formulated as simulating a Feynman--Kac model. We then describe variations of sequential Monte Carlo samplers that allow us to simultaneously estimate the parameters and the latent posterior distribution of this model at a tractable computational cost. We show on various synthetic and real-world datasets that our proposed training scheme outperforms the state of the art in terms of predictive performance.

Compared to the wide array of advanced Monte Carlo methods supported by modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs), PPL support for variational inference (VI) is less developed: users are typically limited to a predefined selection of variational objectives and gradient estimators, which are implemented monolithically (and without formal correctness arguments) in PPL backends. In this paper, we propose a more modular approach to supporting variational inference in PPLs, based on compositional program transformation. In our approach, variational objectives are expressed as programs, that may employ first-class constructs for computing densities of and expected values under user-defined models and variational families. We then transform these programs systematically into unbiased gradient estimators for optimizing the objectives they define. Our design enables modular reasoning about many interacting concerns, including automatic differentiation, density accumulation, tracing, and the application of unbiased gradient estimation strategies. Additionally, relative to existing support for VI in PPLs, our design increases expressiveness along three axes: (1) it supports an open-ended set of user-defined variational objectives, rather than a fixed menu of options; (2) it supports a combinatorial space of gradient estimation strategies, many not automated by today's PPLs; and (3) it supports a broader class of models and variational families, because it supports constructs for approximate marginalization and normalization (previously introduced only for Monte Carlo inference). We implement our approach in an extension to the Gen probabilistic programming system (genjax.vi, implemented in JAX), and evaluate on several deep generative modeling tasks, showing minimal performance overhead vs. hand-coded implementations and performance competitive with well-established open-source PPLs.

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are distributions over sets of items that model diversity using kernels. Their applications in machine learning include summary extraction and recommendation systems. Yet, the cost of sampling from a DPP is prohibitive in large-scale applications, which has triggered an effort towards efficient approximate samplers. We build a novel MCMC sampler that combines ideas from combinatorial geometry, linear programming, and Monte Carlo methods to sample from DPPs with a fixed sample cardinality, also called projection DPPs. Our sampler leverages the ability of the hit-and-run MCMC kernel to efficiently move across convex bodies. Previous theoretical results yield a fast mixing time of our chain when targeting a distribution that is close to a projection DPP, but not a DPP in general. Our empirical results demonstrate that this extends to sampling projection DPPs, i.e., our sampler is more sample-efficient than previous approaches which in turn translates to faster convergence when dealing with costly-to-evaluate functions, such as summary extraction in our experiments.

Post-hoc out-of-distribution (OOD) detection has garnered intensive attention in reliable machine learning. Many efforts have been dedicated to deriving score functions based on logits, distances, or rigorous data distribution assumptions to identify low-scoring OOD samples. Nevertheless, these estimate scores may fail to accurately reflect the true data density or impose impractical constraints. To provide a unified perspective on density-based score design, we propose a novel theoretical framework grounded in Bregman divergence, which extends distribution considerations to encompass an exponential family of distributions. Leveraging the conjugation constraint revealed in our theorem, we introduce a ConjNorm method, reframing density function design as a search for the optimal norm coefficient p against the given dataset. In light of the computational challenges of normalization, we devise an unbiased and analytically tractable estimator of the partition function using the Monte Carlo-based importance sampling technique. Extensive experiments across OOD detection benchmarks empirically demonstrate that our proposed ConjNorm has established a new state-of-the-art in a variety of OOD detection setups, outperforming the current best method by up to 13.25% and 28.19% (FPR95) on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet-1K, respectively.

3D single object tracking has been a crucial problem for decades with numerous applications such as autonomous driving. Despite its wide-ranging use, this task remains challenging due to the significant appearance variation caused by occlusion and size differences among tracked targets. To address these issues, we present MBPTrack, which adopts a Memory mechanism to utilize past information and formulates localization in a coarse-to-fine scheme using Box Priors given in the first frame. Specifically, past frames with targetness masks serve as an external memory, and a transformer-based module propagates tracked target cues from the memory to the current frame. To precisely localize objects of all sizes, MBPTrack first predicts the target center via Hough voting. By leveraging box priors given in the first frame, we adaptively sample reference points around the target center that roughly cover the target of different sizes. Then, we obtain dense feature maps by aggregating point features into the reference points, where localization can be performed more effectively. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MBPTrack achieves state-of-the-art performance on KITTI, nuScenes and Waymo Open Dataset, while running at 50 FPS on a single RTX3090 GPU.

Recent research suggests that tree search algorithms (e.g. Monte Carlo Tree Search) can dramatically boost LLM performance on complex mathematical reasoning tasks. However, they often require more than 10 times the computational resources of greedy decoding due to wasteful search strategies, making them difficult to be deployed in practical applications. This study introduces a novel guided tree search algorithm with dynamic node selection and node-level exploration budget (maximum number of children) calculation to tackle this issue. By considering the search progress towards the final answer (history) and the guidance from a value network (future) trained without any step-wise annotations, our algorithm iteratively selects the most promising tree node before expanding it within the boundaries of the allocated computational budget. Experiments conducted on the GSM8K and TabMWP datasets demonstrate that our approach not only offers competitive performance but also enjoys significantly lower computational costs compared to baseline methods.

Quantum algorithms based on variational approaches are one of the most promising methods to construct quantum solutions and have found a myriad of applications in the last few years. Despite the adaptability and simplicity, their scalability and the selection of suitable ans\"atzs remain key challenges. In this work, we report an algorithmic framework based on nested Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) coupled with the combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) model for the automated design of quantum circuits. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrated our algorithm applied to various kinds of problems, including the ground energy problem in quantum chemistry, quantum optimisation on a graph, solving systems of linear equations, and finding encoding circuit for quantum error detection codes. Compared to the existing approaches, the results indicate that our circuit design algorithm can explore larger search spaces and optimise quantum circuits for larger systems, showing both versatility and scalability.

In this paper, we study the localization problem in dense urban settings. In such environments, Global Navigation Satellite Systems fail to provide good accuracy due to low likelihood of line-of-sight (LOS) links between the receiver (Rx) to be located and the satellites, due to the presence of obstacles like the buildings. Thus, one has to resort to other technologies, which can reliably operate under non-line-of-sight (NLOS) conditions. Recently, we proposed a Received Signal Strength (RSS) fingerprint and convolutional neural network-based algorithm, LocUNet, and demonstrated its state-of-the-art localization performance with respect to the widely adopted k-nearest neighbors (kNN) algorithm, and to state-of-the-art time of arrival (ToA) ranging-based methods. In the current work, we first recognize LocUNet's ability to learn the underlying prior distribution of the Rx position or Rx and transmitter (Tx) association preferences from the training data, and attribute its high performance to these. Conversely, we demonstrate that classical methods based on probabilistic approach, can greatly benefit from an appropriate incorporation of such prior information. Our studies also numerically prove LocUNet's close to optimal performance in many settings, by comparing it with the theoretically optimal formulations.

Missing instances in time series data impose a significant challenge to deep learning models, particularly in regression tasks. In the Earth Observation field, satellite failure or cloud occlusion frequently results in missing time-steps, introducing uncertainties in the predicted output and causing a decline in predictive performance. While many studies address missing time-steps through data augmentation to improve model robustness, the uncertainty arising at the input level is commonly overlooked. To address this gap, we introduce Monte Carlo Temporal Dropout (MC-TD), a method that explicitly accounts for input-level uncertainty by randomly dropping time-steps during inference using a predefined dropout ratio, thereby simulating the effect of missing data. To bypass the need for costly searches for the optimal dropout ratio, we extend this approach with Monte Carlo Concrete Temporal Dropout (MC-ConcTD), a method that learns the optimal dropout distribution directly. Both MC-TD and MC-ConcTD are applied during inference, leveraging Monte Carlo sampling for uncertainty quantification. Experiments on three EO time-series datasets demonstrate that MC-ConcTD improves predictive performance and uncertainty calibration compared to existing approaches. Additionally, we highlight the advantages of adaptive dropout tuning over manual selection, making uncertainty quantification more robust and accessible for EO applications.

Text-to-image models give rise to workflows which often begin with an exploration step, where users sift through a large collection of generated images. The global nature of the text-to-image generation process prevents users from narrowing their exploration to a particular object in the image. In this paper, we present a technique to generate a collection of images that depicts variations in the shape of a specific object, enabling an object-level shape exploration process. Creating plausible variations is challenging as it requires control over the shape of the generated object while respecting its semantics. A particular challenge when generating object variations is accurately localizing the manipulation applied over the object's shape. We introduce a prompt-mixing technique that switches between prompts along the denoising process to attain a variety of shape choices. To localize the image-space operation, we present two techniques that use the self-attention layers in conjunction with the cross-attention layers. Moreover, we show that these localization techniques are general and effective beyond the scope of generating object variations. Extensive results and comparisons demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in generating object variations, and the competence of our localization techniques.

We introduce Psi-Sampler, an SMC-based framework incorporating pCNL-based initial particle sampling for effective inference-time reward alignment with a score-based generative model. Inference-time reward alignment with score-based generative models has recently gained significant traction, following a broader paradigm shift from pre-training to post-training optimization. At the core of this trend is the application of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to the denoising process. However, existing methods typically initialize particles from the Gaussian prior, which inadequately captures reward-relevant regions and results in reduced sampling efficiency. We demonstrate that initializing from the reward-aware posterior significantly improves alignment performance. To enable posterior sampling in high-dimensional latent spaces, we introduce the preconditioned Crank-Nicolson Langevin (pCNL) algorithm, which combines dimension-robust proposals with gradient-informed dynamics. This approach enables efficient and scalable posterior sampling and consistently improves performance across various reward alignment tasks, including layout-to-image generation, quantity-aware generation, and aesthetic-preference generation, as demonstrated in our experiments.

Frontier reasoning models have exhibited incredible capabilities across a wide array of disciplines, driven by posttraining large language models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning (RL). However, despite the widespread success of this paradigm, much of the literature has been devoted to disentangling truly novel behaviors that emerge during RL but are not present in the base models. In our work, we approach this question from a different angle, instead asking whether comparable reasoning capabilites can be elicited from base models at inference time by pure sampling, without any additional training. Inspired by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for sampling from sharpened distributions, we propose a simple iterative sampling algorithm leveraging the base models' own likelihoods. Over different base models, we show that our algorithm offers substantial boosts in reasoning that nearly match and even outperform those from RL on a wide variety of single-shot tasks, including MATH500, HumanEval, and GPQA. Moreover, our sampler avoids the collapse in diversity over multiple samples that is characteristic of RL-posttraining. Crucially, our method does not require training, curated datasets, or a verifier, suggesting broad applicability beyond easily verifiable domains.

The advent of autonomous agents is transforming interactions with Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) by employing natural language as a powerful intermediary. Despite the predominance of Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) methods in current GUI agents for achieving spatial localization, these methods face substantial challenges due to their limited capacity to accurately perceive positional data. Existing strategies, such as reinforcement learning, often fail to assess positional accuracy effectively, thereby restricting their utility. In response, we introduce Location Preference Optimization (LPO), a novel approach that leverages locational data to optimize interaction preferences. LPO uses information entropy to predict interaction positions by focusing on zones rich in information. Besides, it further introduces a dynamic location reward function based on physical distance, reflecting the varying importance of interaction positions. Supported by Group Relative Preference Optimization (GRPO), LPO facilitates an extensive exploration of GUI environments and significantly enhances interaction precision. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate LPO's superior performance, achieving SOTA results across both offline benchmarks and real-world online evaluations. Our code will be made publicly available soon, at https://github.com/AIDC-AI/LPO.

Pre-trained language models can be fine-tuned to solve diverse NLP tasks, including in few-shot settings. Thus fine-tuning allows the model to quickly pick up task-specific ``skills,'' but there has been limited study of where these newly-learnt skills reside inside the massive model. This paper introduces the term skill localization for this problem and proposes a solution. Given the downstream task and a model fine-tuned on that task, a simple optimization is used to identify a very small subset of parameters (sim0.01% of model parameters) responsible for (>95%) of the model's performance, in the sense that grafting the fine-tuned values for just this tiny subset onto the pre-trained model gives performance almost as well as the fine-tuned model. While reminiscent of recent works on parameter-efficient fine-tuning, the novel aspects here are that: (i) No further re-training is needed on the subset (unlike, say, with lottery tickets). (ii) Notable improvements are seen over vanilla fine-tuning with respect to calibration of predictions in-distribution (40-90% error reduction) as well as the quality of predictions out-of-distribution (OOD). In models trained on multiple tasks, a stronger notion of skill localization is observed, where the sparse regions corresponding to different tasks are almost disjoint, and their overlap (when it happens) is a proxy for task similarity. Experiments suggest that localization via grafting can assist certain forms of continual learning.

The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Langevin Dynamics (LD) can suffer from slow mixing times there is a growing interest in using normalizing flows in order to learn the transformation of a simple prior distribution to the given target distribution. Here we propose a generalized and combined approach to sample target densities: Stochastic Normalizing Flows (SNF) -- an arbitrary sequence of deterministic invertible functions and stochastic sampling blocks. We show that stochasticity overcomes expressivity limitations of normalizing flows resulting from the invertibility constraint, whereas trainable transformations between sampling steps improve efficiency of pure MCMC/LD along the flow. By invoking ideas from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics we derive an efficient training procedure by which both the sampler's and the flow's parameters can be optimized end-to-end, and by which we can compute exact importance weights without having to marginalize out the randomness of the stochastic blocks. We illustrate the representational power, sampling efficiency and asymptotic correctness of SNFs on several benchmarks including applications to sampling molecular systems in equilibrium.

We study the classic Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances problem: given a pattern P of length m and a text T of length n, both over a polynomial-size alphabet, compute the Hamming distance between P and T[i, ., . , i+m-1] for every shift i, under the standard Word-RAM model with Theta(log n)-bit words. - We provide an O(nm) time Las Vegas randomized algorithm for this problem, beating the decades-old O(n m log m) running time [Abrahamson, SICOMP 1987]. We also obtain a deterministic algorithm, with a slightly higher O(nm(log mloglog m)^{1/4}) running time. Our randomized algorithm extends to the k-bounded setting, with running time Obig(n+nk{m}big), removing all the extra logarithmic factors from earlier algorithms [Gawrychowski and Uzna\'{n}ski, ICALP 2018; Chan, Golan, Kociumaka, Kopelowitz and Porat, STOC 2020]. - For the (1+epsilon)-approximate version of Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances, we give an O(epsilon^{-0.93}n) time Monte Carlo randomized algorithm, beating the previous O(epsilon^{-1}n) running time [Kopelowitz and Porat, FOCS 2015; Kopelowitz and Porat, SOSA 2018]. Our approximation algorithm exploits a connection with 3SUM, and uses a combination of Fredman's trick, equality matrix product, and random sampling; in particular, we obtain new results on approximate counting versions of 3SUM and Exact Triangle, which may be of independent interest. Our exact algorithms use a novel combination of hashing, bit-packed FFT, and recursion; in particular, we obtain a faster algorithm for computing the sumset of two integer sets, in the regime when the universe size is close to quadratic in the number of elements. We also prove a fine-grained equivalence between the exact Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances problem and a range-restricted, counting version of 3SUM.

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

Parallel test-time scaling (TTS) is a pivotal approach for enhancing large language models (LLMs), typically by sampling multiple token-based chains-of-thought in parallel and aggregating outcomes through voting or search. Recent advances in latent reasoning, where intermediate reasoning unfolds in continuous vector spaces, offer a more efficient alternative to explicit Chain-of-Thought, yet whether such latent models can similarly benefit from parallel TTS remains open, mainly due to the absence of sampling mechanisms in continuous space, and the lack of probabilistic signals for advanced trajectory aggregation. \ This work enables parallel TTS for latent reasoning models by addressing the above issues. For sampling, we introduce two uncertainty-inspired stochastic strategies: Monte Carlo Dropout and Additive Gaussian Noise. For aggregation, we design a Latent Reward Model (LatentRM) trained with step-wise contrastive objective to score and guide latent reasoning. Extensive experiments and visualization analyses show that both sampling strategies scale effectively with compute and exhibit distinct exploration dynamics, while LatentRM enables effective trajectory selection. Together, our explorations open a new direction for scalable inference in continuous spaces. Code released at https://github.com/YRYangang/LatentTTS.

Large-scale task planning is a major challenge. Recent work exploits large language models (LLMs) directly as a policy and shows surprisingly interesting results. This paper shows that LLMs provide a commonsense model of the world in addition to a policy that acts on it. The world model and the policy can be combined in a search algorithm, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), to scale up task planning. In our new LLM-MCTS algorithm, the LLM-induced world model provides a commonsense prior belief for MCTS to achieve effective reasoning; the LLM-induced policy acts as a heuristic to guide the search, vastly improving search efficiency. Experiments show that LLM-MCTS outperforms both MCTS alone and policies induced by LLMs (GPT2 and GPT3.5) by a wide margin, for complex, novel tasks. Further experiments and analyses on multiple tasks -- multiplication, multi-hop travel planning, object rearrangement -- suggest minimum description length (MDL) as a general guiding principle: if the description length of the world model is substantially smaller than that of the policy, using LLM as a world model for model-based planning is likely better than using LLM solely as a policy.

Reinforcement learning (RL) tackles sequential decision-making problems by creating agents that interacts with their environment. However, existing algorithms often view these problem as static, focusing on point estimates for model parameters to maximize expected rewards, neglecting the stochastic dynamics of agent-environment interactions and the critical role of uncertainty quantification. Our research leverages the Kalman filtering paradigm to introduce a novel and scalable sampling algorithm called Langevinized Kalman Temporal-Difference (LKTD) for deep reinforcement learning. This algorithm, grounded in Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC), efficiently draws samples from the posterior distribution of deep neural network parameters. Under mild conditions, we prove that the posterior samples generated by the LKTD algorithm converge to a stationary distribution. This convergence not only enables us to quantify uncertainties associated with the value function and model parameters but also allows us to monitor these uncertainties during policy updates throughout the training phase. The LKTD algorithm paves the way for more robust and adaptable reinforcement learning approaches.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

We propose a novel unsupervised object localization method that allows us to explain the predictions of the model by utilizing self-supervised pre-trained models without additional finetuning. Existing unsupervised and self-supervised object localization methods often utilize class-agnostic activation maps or self-similarity maps of a pre-trained model. Although these maps can offer valuable information for localization, their limited ability to explain how the model makes predictions remains challenging. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective unsupervised object localization method based on representer point selection, where the predictions of the model can be represented as a linear combination of representer values of training points. By selecting representer points, which are the most important examples for the model predictions, our model can provide insights into how the model predicts the foreground object by providing relevant examples as well as their importance. Our method outperforms the state-of-the-art unsupervised and self-supervised object localization methods on various datasets with significant margins and even outperforms recent weakly supervised and few-shot methods.

The advances in Vision-Language models (VLMs) offer exciting opportunities for robotic applications involving image geo-localization, the problem of identifying the geo-coordinates of a place based on visual data only. Recent research works have focused on using a VLM as embeddings extractor for geo-localization, however, the most sophisticated VLMs may only be available as black boxes that are accessible through an API, and come with a number of limitations: there is no access to training data, model features and gradients; retraining is not possible; the number of predictions may be limited by the API; training on model outputs is often prohibited; and queries are open-ended. The utilization of a VLM as a stand-alone, zero-shot geo-localization system using a single text-based prompt is largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, this paper undertakes the first systematic study, to the best of our knowledge, to investigate the potential of some of the state-of-the-art VLMs as stand-alone, zero-shot geo-localization systems in a black-box setting with realistic constraints. We consider three main scenarios for this thorough investigation: a) fixed text-based prompt; b) semantically-equivalent text-based prompts; and c) semantically-equivalent query images. We also take into account the auto-regressive and probabilistic generation process of the VLMs when investigating their utility for geo-localization task by using model consistency as a metric in addition to traditional accuracy. Our work provides new insights in the capabilities of different VLMs for the above-mentioned scenarios.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

In recent years, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) have grown in popularity as scalable methods for Bayesian inference. Unfortunately, the properties of such methods invariably depend on hyperparameters such as the learning rate, which must be carefully tuned by the practitioner in order to ensure convergence to the target measure at a suitable rate. In this paper, we introduce a suite of new particle-based methods for scalable Bayesian inference based on coin betting, which are entirely learning-rate free. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a range of numerical examples, including several high-dimensional models and datasets, demonstrating comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms with no need to tune a learning rate.

We propose a novel method for geolocalizing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in environments lacking Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Current state-of-the-art techniques employ an offline-trained encoder to generate a vector representation (embedding) of the UAV's current view, which is then compared with pre-computed embeddings of geo-referenced images to determine the UAV's position. Here, we demonstrate that the performance of these methods can be significantly enhanced by preprocessing the images to extract their edges, which exhibit robustness to seasonal and illumination variations. Furthermore, we establish that utilizing edges enhances resilience to orientation and altitude inaccuracies. Additionally, we introduce a confidence criterion for localization. Our findings are substantiated through synthetic experiments.

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be constructed from given data. In contrast, some studies, including this paper, used the trees to represent stochastic data observation processes behind given data. Moreover, they derived the statistically optimal prediction, which is robust against overfitting, based on the Bayesian decision theory by assuming a prior distribution for the trees. However, these studies still have a problem in computing this Bayes optimal prediction because it involves an infeasible summation for all division patterns of a feature space, which is represented by the trees and some parameters. In particular, an open problem is a summation with respect to combinations of division axes, i.e., the assignment of features to inner nodes of the tree. We solve this by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whose step size is adaptively tuned according to a posterior distribution for the trees.

Process reward models (PRMs) offer fine-grained, step-level evaluations that facilitate deeper reasoning processes in large language models (LLMs), proving effective in complex tasks like mathematical reasoning. However, developing PRMs is challenging due to the high cost and limited scalability of human-annotated data. Synthetic data from Monte Carlo (MC) estimation is a promising alternative but suffers from a high noise ratio, which can cause overfitting and hinder large-scale training. In this work, we conduct a preliminary study on the noise distribution in synthetic data from MC estimation, identifying that annotation models tend to both underestimate and overestimate step correctness due to limitations in their annotation capabilities. Building on these insights, we propose Self-Denoising Monte Carlo Annotation (SCAN), an efficient data synthesis and noise-tolerant learning framework. Our key findings indicate that: (1) Even lightweight models (e.g., 1.5B parameters) can produce high-quality annotations through a self-denoising strategy, enabling PRMs to achieve superior performance with only 6% the inference cost required by vanilla MC estimation. (2) With our robust learning strategy, PRMs can effectively learn from this weak supervision, achieving a 39.2 F1 score improvement (from 19.9 to 59.1) in ProcessBench. Despite using only a compact synthetic dataset, our models surpass strong baselines, including those trained on large-scale human-annotated datasets such as PRM800K. Furthermore, performance continues to improve as we scale up the synthetic data, highlighting the potential of SCAN for scalable, cost-efficient, and robust PRM training.

Bayesian optimization is a highly efficient approach to optimizing objective functions which are expensive to query. These objectives are typically represented by Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models which are easy to optimize and support exact inference. While standard GP surrogates have been well-established in Bayesian optimization, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently become practical function approximators, with many benefits over standard GPs such as the ability to naturally handle non-stationarity and learn representations for high-dimensional data. In this paper, we study BNNs as alternatives to standard GP surrogates for optimization. We consider a variety of approximate inference procedures for finite-width BNNs, including high-quality Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, low-cost stochastic MCMC, and heuristics such as deep ensembles. We also consider infinite-width BNNs and partially stochastic models such as deep kernel learning. We evaluate this collection of surrogate models on diverse problems with varying dimensionality, number of objectives, non-stationarity, and discrete and continuous inputs. We find: (i) the ranking of methods is highly problem dependent, suggesting the need for tailored inductive biases; (ii) HMC is the most successful approximate inference procedure for fully stochastic BNNs; (iii) full stochasticity may be unnecessary as deep kernel learning is relatively competitive; (iv) infinite-width BNNs are particularly promising, especially in high dimensions.

Most mobile robots for indoor use rely on 2D laser scanners for localization, mapping and navigation. These sensors, however, cannot detect transparent surfaces or measure the full occupancy of complex objects such as tables. Deep Neural Networks have recently been proposed to overcome this limitation by learning to estimate object occupancy. These estimates are nevertheless subject to uncertainty, making the evaluation of their confidence an important issue for these measures to be useful for autonomous navigation and mapping. In this work we approach the problem from two sides. First we discuss uncertainty estimation in deep models, proposing a solution based on a fully convolutional neural network. The proposed architecture is not restricted by the assumption that the uncertainty follows a Gaussian model, as in the case of many popular solutions for deep model uncertainty estimation, such as Monte-Carlo Dropout. We present results showing that uncertainty over obstacle distances is actually better modeled with a Laplace distribution. Then, we propose a novel approach to build maps based on Deep Neural Network uncertainty models. In particular, we present an algorithm to build a map that includes information over obstacle distance estimates while taking into account the level of uncertainty in each estimate. We show how the constructed map can be used to increase global navigation safety by planning trajectories which avoid areas of high uncertainty, enabling higher autonomy for mobile robots in indoor settings.

Worldwide Geo-localization aims to pinpoint the precise location of images taken anywhere on Earth. This task has considerable challenges due to immense variation in geographic landscapes. The image-to-image retrieval-based approaches fail to solve this problem on a global scale as it is not feasible to construct a large gallery of images covering the entire world. Instead, existing approaches divide the globe into discrete geographic cells, transforming the problem into a classification task. However, their performance is limited by the predefined classes and often results in inaccurate localizations when an image's location significantly deviates from its class center. To overcome these limitations, we propose GeoCLIP, a novel CLIP-inspired Image-to-GPS retrieval approach that enforces alignment between the image and its corresponding GPS locations. GeoCLIP's location encoder models the Earth as a continuous function by employing positional encoding through random Fourier features and constructing a hierarchical representation that captures information at varying resolutions to yield a semantically rich high-dimensional feature suitable to use even beyond geo-localization. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work employing GPS encoding for geo-localization. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method via extensive experiments and ablations on benchmark datasets. We achieve competitive performance with just 20% of training data, highlighting its effectiveness even in limited-data settings. Furthermore, we qualitatively demonstrate geo-localization using a text query by leveraging CLIP backbone of our image encoder. The project webpage is available at: https://vicentevivan.github.io/GeoCLIP

Floorplans provide a compact representation of the building's structure, revealing not only layout information but also detailed semantics such as the locations of windows and doors. However, contemporary floorplan localization techniques mostly focus on matching depth-based structural cues, ignoring the rich semantics communicated within floorplans. In this work, we introduce a semantic-aware localization framework that jointly estimates depth and semantic rays, consolidating over both for predicting a structural-semantic probability volume. Our probability volume is constructed in a coarse-to-fine manner: We first sample a small set of rays to obtain an initial low-resolution probability volume. We then refine these probabilities by performing a denser sampling only in high-probability regions and process the refined values for predicting a 2D location and orientation angle. We conduct an evaluation on two standard floorplan localization benchmarks. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach substantially outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving significant improvements in recall metrics compared to prior works. Moreover, we show that our framework can easily incorporate additional metadata such as room labels, enabling additional gains in both accuracy and efficiency.

Large language models demonstrate remarkable in-context learning capabilities, adapting to new tasks without parameter updates. While this phenomenon has been successfully modeled as implicit Bayesian inference, recent empirical findings reveal a fundamental contradiction: transformers systematically violate the martingale property, a cornerstone requirement of Bayesian updating on exchangeable data. This violation challenges the theoretical foundations underlying uncertainty quantification in critical applications. Our theoretical analysis establishes four key results: (1) positional encodings induce martingale violations of order Theta(log n / n); (2) transformers achieve information-theoretic optimality with excess risk O(n^{-1/2}) in expectation over orderings; (3) the implicit posterior representation converges to the true Bayesian posterior in the space of sufficient statistics; and (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as k^* = Theta(nlog(1/varepsilon)) with explicit constants, providing a principled approach to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance. Empirical validation on GPT-3 confirms predictions (1)-(3), with transformers reaching 99\% of theoretical entropy limits within 20 examples. Our framework provides practical methods for extracting calibrated uncertainty estimates from position-aware architectures and optimizing computational efficiency in deployment.

Cross-view geo-localization is a promising solution for large-scale localization problems, requiring the sequential execution of retrieval and metric localization tasks to achieve fine-grained predictions. However, existing methods typically focus on designing standalone models for these two tasks, resulting in inefficient collaboration and increased training overhead. In this paper, we propose UnifyGeo, a novel unified hierarchical geo-localization framework that integrates retrieval and metric localization tasks into a single network. Specifically, we first employ a unified learning strategy with shared parameters to jointly learn multi-granularity representation, facilitating mutual reinforcement between these two tasks. Subsequently, we design a re-ranking mechanism guided by a dedicated loss function, which enhances geo-localization performance by improving both retrieval accuracy and metric localization references. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UnifyGeo significantly outperforms the state-of-the-arts in both task-isolated and task-associated settings. Remarkably, on the challenging VIGOR benchmark, which supports fine-grained localization evaluation, the 1-meter-level localization recall rate improves from 1.53\% to 39.64\% and from 0.43\% to 25.58\% under same-area and cross-area evaluations, respectively. Code will be made publicly available.

Previous methods for image geo-localization have typically treated the task as either classification or retrieval, often relying on black-box decisions that lack interpretability. The rise of large vision-language models (LVLMs) has enabled a rethinking of geo-localization as a reasoning-driven task grounded in visual cues. However, two major challenges persist. On the data side, existing reasoning-focused datasets are primarily based on street-view imagery, offering limited scene diversity and constrained viewpoints. On the modeling side, current approaches predominantly rely on supervised fine-tuning, which yields only marginal improvements in reasoning capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a novel pipeline that constructs a reasoning-oriented geo-localization dataset, MP16-Reason, using diverse social media images. We introduce GLOBE, Group-relative policy optimization for Localizability assessment and Optimized visual-cue reasoning, yielding Bi-objective geo-Enhancement for the VLM in recognition and reasoning. GLOBE incorporates task-specific rewards that jointly enhance localizability assessment, visual-cue reasoning, and geolocation accuracy. Both qualitative and quantitative results demonstrate that GLOBE outperforms state-of-the-art open-source LVLMs on geo-localization tasks, particularly in diverse visual scenes, while also generating more insightful and interpretable reasoning trajectories. The data and code are available at https://github.com/lingli1996/GLOBE.

In this work we consider Code World Models, world models generated by a Large Language Model (LLM) in the form of Python code for model-based Reinforcement Learning (RL). Calling code instead of LLMs for planning has potential to be more precise, reliable, interpretable, and extremely efficient. However, writing appropriate Code World Models requires the ability to understand complex instructions, to generate exact code with non-trivial logic and to self-debug a long program with feedback from unit tests and environment trajectories. To address these challenges, we propose Generate, Improve and Fix with Monte Carlo Tree Search (GIF-MCTS), a new code generation strategy for LLMs. To test our approach in an offline RL setting, we introduce the Code World Models Benchmark (CWMB), a suite of program synthesis and planning tasks comprised of 18 diverse RL environments paired with corresponding textual descriptions and curated trajectories. GIF-MCTS surpasses all baselines on the CWMB and two other benchmarks, and we show that the Code World Models synthesized with it can be successfully used for planning, resulting in model-based RL agents with greatly improved sample efficiency and inference speed.

Cross-view localization, the task of estimating a camera's 3-degrees-of-freedom (3-DoF) pose by aligning ground-level images with satellite images, is crucial for large-scale outdoor applications like autonomous navigation and augmented reality. Existing methods often rely on fully supervised learning, which requires costly ground-truth pose annotations. In this work, we propose GeoDistill, a Geometry guided weakly supervised self distillation framework that uses teacher-student learning with Field-of-View (FoV)-based masking to enhance local feature learning for robust cross-view localization. In GeoDistill, the teacher model localizes a panoramic image, while the student model predicts locations from a limited FoV counterpart created by FoV-based masking. By aligning the student's predictions with those of the teacher, the student focuses on key features like lane lines and ignores textureless regions, such as roads. This results in more accurate predictions and reduced uncertainty, regardless of whether the query images are panoramas or limited FoV images. Our experiments show that GeoDistill significantly improves localization performance across different frameworks. Additionally, we introduce a novel orientation estimation network that predicts relative orientation without requiring precise planar position ground truth. GeoDistill provides a scalable and efficient solution for real-world cross-view localization challenges. Code and model can be found at https://github.com/tongshw/GeoDistill.

LLM-based autonomous agents often fail to execute complex web tasks that require dynamic interaction due to the inherent uncertainty and complexity of these environments. Existing LLM-based web agents typically rely on rigid, expert-designed policies specific to certain states and actions, which lack the flexibility and generalizability needed to adapt to unseen tasks. In contrast, humans excel by exploring unknowns, continuously adapting strategies, and resolving ambiguities through exploration. To emulate human-like adaptability, web agents need strategic exploration and complex decision-making. Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is well-suited for this, but classical MCTS struggles with vast action spaces, unpredictable state transitions, and incomplete information in web tasks. In light of this, we develop WebPilot, a multi-agent system with a dual optimization strategy that improves MCTS to better handle complex web environments. Specifically, the Global Optimization phase involves generating a high-level plan by breaking down tasks into manageable subtasks and continuously refining this plan, thereby focusing the search process and mitigating the challenges posed by vast action spaces in classical MCTS. Subsequently, the Local Optimization phase executes each subtask using a tailored MCTS designed for complex environments, effectively addressing uncertainties and managing incomplete information. Experimental results on WebArena and MiniWoB++ demonstrate the effectiveness of WebPilot. Notably, on WebArena, WebPilot achieves SOTA performance with GPT-4, achieving a 93% relative increase in success rate over the concurrent tree search-based method. WebPilot marks a significant advancement in general autonomous agent capabilities, paving the way for more advanced and reliable decision-making in practical environments.

We discuss methods for modeling eclipsing binary stars using the "physical", "simplified" and "phenomenological" models. There are few realizations of the "physical" Wilson-Devinney (1971) code and its improvements, e.g. Binary Maker, Phoebe. A parameter search using the Monte-Carlo method was realized by Zola et al. (2010), which is efficient in expense of too many evaluations of the test function. We compare existing algorithms of minimization of multi-parametric functions and propose to use a "combined" algorithm, depending on if the Hessian matrix is positively determined. To study methods, a simply fast-computed function resembling the "complete" test function for the physical model. Also we adopt a simplified model of an eclipsing binary at a circular orbit assuming spherical components with an uniform brightness distribution. This model resembles more advanced models in a sense of correlated parameter estimates due to a similar topology of the test function. Such a model may be applied to detached Algol-type systems, where the tidal distortion of components is negligible.

While large language models perform well on a range of complex tasks (e.g., text generation, question answering, summarization), robust multi-step planning and reasoning remains a considerable challenge for them. In this paper we show that search-based planning can significantly improve LLMs' playing strength across several board games (Chess, Fischer Random / Chess960, Connect Four, and Hex). We introduce, compare and contrast two major approaches: In external search, the model guides Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) rollouts and evaluations without calls to an external engine, and in internal search, the model directly generates in-context a linearized tree of potential futures and a resulting final choice. Both build on a language model pre-trained on relevant domain knowledge, capturing the transition and value functions across these games. We find that our pre-training method minimizes hallucinations, as our model is highly accurate regarding state prediction and legal moves. Additionally, both internal and external search indeed improve win-rates against state-of-the-art bots, even reaching Grandmaster-level performance in chess while operating on a similar move count search budget per decision as human Grandmasters. The way we combine search with domain knowledge is not specific to board games, suggesting direct extensions into more general language model inference and training techniques.

The Multi-Agent Pathfinding (MAPF) problem involves finding a set of conflict-free paths for a group of agents confined to a graph. In typical MAPF scenarios, the graph and the agents' starting and ending vertices are known beforehand, allowing the use of centralized planning algorithms. However, in this study, we focus on the decentralized MAPF setting, where the agents may observe the other agents only locally and are restricted in communications with each other. Specifically, we investigate the lifelong variant of MAPF, where new goals are continually assigned to the agents upon completion of previous ones. Drawing inspiration from the successful AlphaZero approach, we propose a decentralized multi-agent Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) method for MAPF tasks. Our approach utilizes the agent's observations to recreate the intrinsic Markov decision process, which is then used for planning with a tailored for multi-agent tasks version of neural MCTS. The experimental results show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art learnable MAPF solvers. The source code is available at https://github.com/AIRI-Institute/mats-lp.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

Current Vision-Language Models (VLMs) struggle with fine-grained spatial reasoning, particularly when multi-step logic and precise spatial alignment are required. In this work, we introduce SpatialReasoner-R1, a vision-language reasoning model designed to address these limitations. To construct high-quality supervision for spatial reasoning, we design a Multi-Model Monte Carlo Tree Search (M3CTS) method that generates diverse, logically consistent Long Chain-of-Thought (LongCoT) reasoning trajectories. In addition, we propose fine-grained Direct Preference Optimization (fDPO), which introduces segment-specific preference granularity for descriptive grounding and logical reasoning, guided by a spatial reward mechanism that evaluates candidate responses based on visual consistency, spatial grounding, and logical coherence. Experimental results demonstrate that fDPO achieves an average improvement of 4.1% over standard DPO across spatial quality tasks, and a 9.0% gain in spatial quantity tasks. SpatialReasoner-R1, trained with fDPO, sets a new SoTA on SPATIALRGPT-Bench, outperforming the strongest baseline by 9.8% in average accuracy, while maintaining competitive performance on general vision-language tasks.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable potential in automating machine learning tasks. However, existing LLM-based agents often struggle with low-diversity and suboptimal code generation. While recent work has introduced Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to address these issues, limitations persist in the quality and diversity of thoughts generated, as well as in the scalar value feedback mechanisms used for node selection. In this study, we introduce Introspective Monte Carlo Tree Search (I-MCTS), a novel approach that iteratively expands tree nodes through an introspective process that meticulously analyzes solutions and results from parent and sibling nodes. This facilitates a continuous refinement of the node in the search tree, thereby enhancing the overall decision-making process. Furthermore, we integrate a Large Language Model (LLM)-based value model to facilitate direct evaluation of each node's solution prior to conducting comprehensive computational rollouts. A hybrid rewarding mechanism is implemented to seamlessly transition the Q-value from LLM-estimated scores to actual performance scores. This allows higher-quality nodes to be traversed earlier. Applied to the various ML tasks, our approach demonstrates a 6% absolute improvement in performance compared to the strong open-source AutoML agents, showcasing its effectiveness in enhancing agentic AutoML systems. Resource available at https://github.com/jokieleung/I-MCTS

We introduce an approach aimed at enhancing the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) through an iterative preference learning process inspired by the successful strategy employed by AlphaZero. Our work leverages Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to iteratively collect preference data, utilizing its look-ahead ability to break down instance-level rewards into more granular step-level signals. To enhance consistency in intermediate steps, we combine outcome validation and stepwise self-evaluation, continually updating the quality assessment of newly generated data. The proposed algorithm employs Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) to update the LLM policy using this newly generated step-level preference data. Theoretical analysis reveals the importance of using on-policy sampled data for successful self-improving. Extensive evaluations on various arithmetic and commonsense reasoning tasks demonstrate remarkable performance improvements over existing models. For instance, our approach outperforms the Mistral-7B Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) baseline on GSM8K, MATH, and ARC-C, with substantial increases in accuracy to 81.8% (+5.9%), 34.7% (+5.8%), and 76.4% (+15.8%), respectively. Additionally, our research delves into the training and inference compute tradeoff, providing insights into how our method effectively maximizes performance gains. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/YuxiXie/MCTS-DPO.

Transport maps can ease the sampling of distributions with non-trivial geometries by transforming them into distributions that are easier to handle. The potential of this approach has risen with the development of Normalizing Flows (NF) which are maps parameterized with deep neural networks trained to push a reference distribution towards a target. NF-enhanced samplers recently proposed blend (Markov chain) Monte Carlo methods with either (i) proposal draws from the flow or (ii) a flow-based reparametrization. In both cases, the quality of the learned transport conditions performance. The present work clarifies for the first time the relative strengths and weaknesses of these two approaches. Our study concludes that multimodal targets can be reliably handled with flow-based proposals up to moderately high dimensions. In contrast, methods relying on reparametrization struggle with multimodality but are more robust otherwise in high-dimensional settings and under poor training. To further illustrate the influence of target-proposal adequacy, we also derive a new quantitative bound for the mixing time of the Independent Metropolis-Hastings sampler.

We introduce a novel approach to the executable semantic object rearrangement problem. In this challenge, a robot seeks to create an actionable plan that rearranges objects within a scene according to a pattern dictated by a natural language description. Unlike existing methods such as StructFormer and StructDiffusion, which tackle the issue in two steps by first generating poses and then leveraging a task planner for action plan formulation, our method concurrently addresses pose generation and action planning. We achieve this integration using a Language-Guided Monte-Carlo Tree Search (LGMCTS). Quantitative evaluations are provided on two simulation datasets, and complemented by qualitative tests with a real robot.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are models that allow exact and tractable probabilistic inference. In contrast to neural networks, they are often assumed to be well-calibrated and robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this paper, we show that PCs are in fact not robust to OOD data, i.e., they don't know what they don't know. We then show how this challenge can be overcome by model uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose tractable dropout inference (TDI), an inference procedure to estimate uncertainty by deriving an analytical solution to Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) through variance propagation. Unlike MCD in neural networks, which comes at the cost of multiple network evaluations, TDI provides tractable sampling-free uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. TDI improves the robustness of PCs to distribution shift and OOD data, demonstrated through a series of experiments evaluating the classification confidence and uncertainty estimates on real-world data.

We present a novel method for precise 3D object localization in single images from a single calibrated camera using only 2D labels. No expensive 3D labels are needed. Thus, instead of using 3D labels, our model is trained with easy-to-annotate 2D labels along with the physical knowledge of the object's motion. Given this information, the model can infer the latent third dimension, even though it has never seen this information during training. Our method is evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets, and we are able to achieve a mean distance error of just 6 cm in our experiments on real data. The results indicate the method's potential as a step towards learning 3D object location estimation, where collecting 3D data for training is not feasible.