Anticipating floods in Morocco
River flood forecasting systems in Africa are sorely lacking, yet they could save lives. In the Maghreb, for example “floods have claimed twice as many victims as in Northern Europe in recent decades,” Yves Tramblay says. The steep-sided valleys in the High Atlas mountains of Morocco, like the valley of the Ourika River south of Marrakech, are regularly affected by short-lived but very sudden floods. “The flood of 17 August 1995 is engraved in our memory,” says El Mahdi El Khalki, a research professor in hydrometeorology at Mohammed VI Polytechnic University in Ben Guerir, north of Marrakech. On the evening of that hot summer day, a terrible thunderstorm hit upstream of the Ourika basin, with heavy rainfall causing the river to swell. In about ten minutes, its streamflow increased 30-fold. The flood wave destroyed everything in its path. The toll was high: 289 victims, over 200 hectares of farmland destroyed, over two thousand cattle drowned and damage estimated at approximately US$15 million.
“After this disaster, an alert system was established based on real-time precipitation and streamflow observations. But the current lead time is too short to allow for a response to flash floods like the one in 1995,” says El Mahdi El Khalki, who is currently working to develop a national forecasting system for river flooding. The goal is to be able to predict possible floods 24 to 48 hours in advance. His thesis co-supervised by Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi, a professor at Cady Ayyad University in Marrakech, and Yves Tramblay, has already demonstrated the feasibility of such a system in the Ourika Valley and nearby Rheraya watershed. “After adapting the hydrological and meteorological models to the Moroccan context, we succeeded in simulating the streamflow of these rivers for several floods that occurred in the basins between 2014 and 2016 based on data from Morocco’s National Directorate of Meteorology (DGM),” the researcher says. This work conducted by TREMA, the International Joint Laboratory (LMI) for sustainable water management within watersheds in the Southern Mediterranean region was selected by Morocco’s Special Commission on the Development Model, established by King Mohammed VI, for the theme “Climate Change and Natural Resources: What Responses Should Shape the Morocco of Tomorrow?”
Publication
El Mahdi El Khalki, Yves Tramblay, Arnau Amengual, Victor Homar, Romualdo Romero, Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi et Meriem Alaouri, Validation of the AROME, ALADIN and WRF Meteorological Models for Flood Forecasting in Morocco, Water [12(2):437], 6 février 2020 ; doi:10.3390/w12020437